@AdamMancini4 Beautiful. Not holding for the weekend, but textbook ending.
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L.B. Roemer
310 posts
It's classic #ES_F to trigger a high quality long mins before the close. In yesterday's 4pm newsletter I posted Failed Breakdowns of the big September 2025 low ~6532 would trigger up. We just triggered, and went +30. With war headlines over the weekend though *lock in most gains*
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Closing update #ES_F: Sraight forward session today with slow grind down after morning volatility. This is identical action to last Fri where we closed at the lows, then ripped 150 points Mon. Bulls need to recover 6591 to get started. Newsletter out soon with downside entries
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@McClellanOsc I do remember your chart in October on the oil and gold relationship, it came late, but made the move up.
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There is a lot of speculation that oil prices are headed to $200. People like big round numbers. While anything is possible, the smart money "commercial" traders of crude oil futures are betting against that outcome, and they tend to be the smart money.
A commercial trader of any futures contract, under the CFTC's definitions, is one which uses or produces the subject commodity in their trade or business. For crude oil, that means a lot of them are producers using the futures market to lock in pricing for their future production. As a result, they have been continuously net short to varying degrees since 2009.
Just recently, they were at their lowest net short position in many years, saying that they did not want to lock in prices below $60. That reading was a great bottoming sign for oil prices, apart from anything happening now regarding Iran.
Their response now is to rapidly and aggressively up their collective net short position, evidently grateful for the price jump to allow them to lock in higher sales prices. Similar aggressive jumps to a bigger net short position have been good markers of price tops. So these traders are evidently not believing the online rumors about $200 oil. And they tend to know their business.
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@UmerAshraf2000 @AdamMancini4 Newsletter ideas worked great, 6685 fbd last night and the night owls got the 6641 fbd. No need to do anything today unless we get a fresh setup.
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@AdamMancini4 Hello @AdamMancini4 , were the newsletter levels for the last night? They are not working today
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Its been easy trading since night in #ES_F with clean, precise moves. 6641 Failed Breakdown triggered long. 8am targets were 6716 (hit), 6738 (hit), 6758-65 (not yet). 6693 was support and we just held it exact, back to 6716, back down
6693 reclaim to rally. 6676, 6663 supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Levels are ultra precise today in #ES_F. 6641 Failed Breakdown was long trigger given to newsletter readers. Today's targets given 8am were 6716 (hit), 6738 (we hit 6737.5, dipped), 6758-65 6693 was support given, held exact, ran back to 6716. No change to rest of levels/targets
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@mt56281 @AdamMancini4 I’m assuming Adam would have entered at 35 but took profit take at 42 yesterday’s low, so he was in one profit take before you even entered. Though I am surprised he carried that large of position into CPI and NFP, used to only be 10% runner in past years into data.
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@AdamMancini4 @AdamMancini4 NL sub here. Entered at 8:03 at 6838 after price kept testing that 6835 called in the NL since 7 AM. and it crashed down to 6821 with significant drawdown only to take the SL but hit the 2 TPs you mentioned. 2 ES is pretty expensive in this reclaim strategy!
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Initial CPI reaction in the books. Targets today given at 8am were 6850 1st up in #ES_F (hit), 6860 2nd up (hit). Setup here was the Failed Breakdown of the 6824 1:30AM overnight low as posted. 6860 must clear now to see 6870, then 6893, then real rally starts.
Sell under 6822
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Ystd, #ES_F lost its 3 day 6954 support shelf, triggering 1st dip in a week. Sell algo on until a Failed Breakdown triggers, then squeeze Plan today: Mini Failed Breakdown of overnight low active. 6850, 6860 above. 6860 must recover to see 6870, 6893+. 6822 fails, dip 6813 6795
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@AdamMancini4 Adam, for a FBD, how many times is the same setup actionable?
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Tons of whipsaw to start the day but this remains prime day trading in #ES_F for lvl to lvl day traders. I posted to watch for Failed Breakdowns of 6862. We recovered it minutes later, rallied to 6880, now back again.
Same upsides (6872, 6877, 6887, 6900). 6857, 6838=supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Volatility continues to be prime for day trading in #ES_F - nonstop setups. 6864 Failed Breakdown was long given live ystd. Targets were 6911, 6920, 6930. We hit 6940 post earnings, dipped Plan today: Watch failed breakdowns of 6862. 6872, 6887, 6900 above. 6857, 6838 are below
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Sell algo still on #ES_F as warned (stays on until we get a Failed Breakdown) but lvls respecting well. 6920-25 was major support as posted and big test. We tested exact 5x over half an hour, then lost it and just hit 6911 1st down
6920-25 must reclaim to rally. 6904, 6890 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's 6920-25 next down tagged as #ES_F works down the levels and retraces yesterday's 120 point flush. Big test here but as always, the sell algo stays on until a major Failed Breakdown/reclaim (6949 now). 6930 reclaim takes us there and beyond. 6911, 6904, 6890 next down
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@bornINtheUSSA @truflation They've never been to the grocery store, clearly.
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US CPI inflation dropped significantly today from 1.24% to 0.86% in our independent price data, the lowest since 2020.
Truflation US CPI today: 0.86% Y/Y
The biggest downward drivers were:
1. Utilities down -0.13%
2. Clothing -0.08%
3. Housing -0.05%
4. Transport -0.05%
5. Food -0.04%
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@ES_Money_Print @AdamMancini4 Newsletter trade hasn’t hit really level to level yet as it had no acceptance so couldn’t take until over 38 for a few mins. If you didn’t taken 1-2 points at 40, haven’t reached 45.
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@AdamMancini4 Overnight traders got good trade near 6926. 6933 also worked level to level. With that shallow FBD of 6926, do you consider 6926 as significant or recent local low at 6933?
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Runners still working off Wednesday's 6822 Failed Breakdown. Per 4pm newsletter, 6933 Failed Breakdown was a long trigger in #ES_F. We swept it to 6926 o/n, recovered, +10 so far
Plan today: 6935-40=support. 6955, 6959, 6964, 6970-74 (gap fill)=targets. 35 fails, dip 6914, 6904.
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No Apple Watch band has been able to replace my beloved Titanium Band from Nomad.. until now.
The new limited edition Icy Blue x Stratos band, also from Nomad, is simply INCREDIBLE.
Soft and warm. Light, yet premium.. (& glow in the dark)
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@JackZeva @AdamMancini4 To be fair to Adam, he doesn’t post any trades.
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@AdamMancini4 Just out of curiosity do you ever post losing trades? All of your
Posts seem to be 100% accurate which is not remotely possible. Maybe post trades REAL TIME? Respectfully
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Great push for #ES_F to end the day and today has been A+ day trading conditions. I posted 6925 was support. Held 7x. I posted 6937 had to reclaim to rally. We got it. Targets given were 6950 (hit), 6964, 6969-72.
Ultimately bulls must recover 69-72 to resume full control again
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
6925 is support as posted & #ES_F taking this very literally. We've held it an incredible 7x today so far (including one big push to 6950+). 6937 resistance as posted, and its been the ceiling. 6950, 6964, 6969-72 if bulls can rush (bears control under 6969-72). 6913, 6909 below
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@StephenJ223624 @AdamMancini4 Yeah I exited break even before data as we hadn’t hit first up yet, and I missed the milisecond we hit 81. But wasn’t sure the protocol on that.
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@lamarroemer @AdamMancini4 Good question. I took it. Had plenty of chances to get out with a small loss, but held on because the low was holding. I wonder if there was a candle on a certain Tf where @AdamMancini4 would say cut it here and wait for the next one.??
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Good to have vol back & makes our job as lvl to lvl traders easier. 6969-72 is the "bear control below" line as warned in #ES_F. 6950 reclaim was long trigger there. We triggered, hit 69-72 *exact*, sold
6935, 6925 were next, at ~25 now. Bulls must recover 6950. 6913, 6909 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We finally have volatility and its a day traders market. 6969-72=bull/bear line as posted. Bears control below. I posted 25mins ago #ES_F must recover 6950 to see 6964, 6969-72. We recovered, hit 6969-72 *exact*, dipped. Protect gains 6935, 6925, 6913 below. 50 reclaims to pop
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@HAI3808 @EliteOptions2 He lost today, but he’s had a very good year on NQ.
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@MacRumors Do they not realize every single person who buys their suv's uses Carplay?
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GM to Remove CarPlay from All Future Vehicles, Including Gas Cars macrumors.com/2025/10/22/gm-…
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@schwartzaman @lamarroemer @Jbuehler777 Whenever price properly breaks down a shelf (a real breakdown not a quick 5 or 10 point sweep and recover) then re-tests from below a backtest short is justified. The deeper the breakdown the better. The best ones will be 20+ point breakdowns
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After nearly 2 days stuck in the 6756-6782 range, #ES_F finally expanding it. 6776, then 6782 were 1st targets today. We swept 6766, ran to 6782 2nd target, broke the range down.
6756-60 must reclaim to pop back up the levels. 6744 (here now), 6737, 6725 next supports down
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's 6776 1st target hit again & we remain in *ultra tight chop*. 6766 a magnet as posted and I posted at 8am to watch for traps of it. We just swept it, failed breakdown, ran to 6776. 66 weaker now No change: 6766, 6756=supports. 6756-6782=a flag. 6787, 6792+ breakout.Dip<56
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@AdamMancini4 @Jbuehler777 Will you explain in newsletter why it didn’t reclaim? We pushed over yesterday’s low, sold three points, then popped right back over and spent 9 mins above it.
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@Jbuehler777 It didn't reclaim yet, just a back-test. If we return up there though we would have acceptance
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Why you should never buy $VIX options unless you know the future:
In the past month $VIX is up 35%. You’d think $VIX November calls made a killing. Not really.
Because spot $VIX was low and futures were high, the options priced off futures barely moved. The Nov 21 calls are up just about 15%, even with perfect timing.
Even if you nailed the direction, you made almost nothing. If $VIX had stayed flat, you’d have lost more.
Buying $VIX options only pays if the system cracks, for example an all out trade war with China.
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L.B. Roemer retweetledi
The Adidas Adipower pickleball paddles have arrived and we're thinking about giving away a few to you beautiful humans.
COMMENT BELOW IF YOU WANT ONE. 🤝
And oh yes, this will be a NEWSLETTER ONLY GIVEAWAY...so if you want one you'll definitely want to sign up 👇 ;)
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@tomthetrader1 Maybe look at the 20D sma. Interesting picture.
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