Mathieu Duchâtel

Aujourd’hui, 13 février, c’est le sinologue qui vous parle:)

这是真的，最新官宣了：张又侠、刘振立被抓。

Chips, Deals, and Forbidden City Sequels Since Trump is moving ahead with allowing H200 chip exports to China, Beijing’s priorities will shift almost overnight: 1. Beijing will read Trump as fundamentally transactional — everything is negotiable, and therefore everything is potentially attainable. If advanced chips are once again “tradable,” China will immediately recalibrate. Expect a full-court press in the coming months to secure the most advanced technology available across the spectrum — not just GPUs, but lithography systems, specialty materials, EDA software, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment that seemed untouchable only a day ago. That includes renewed pressure on ASML’s top-end tools. ASML’s EUV systems have been off-limits to China since 2019, and even the most advanced DUV models are restricted under U.S. rules. As Washington’s posture softens under Trump, Beijing will treat that as the first real breach in the wall. In its view, nothing is “permanently restricted” anymore — only temporarily unavailable. 2. None of this will slow China’s drive for semiconductor self-reliance — not even by a millimeter. China’s long-term mission remains unchanged: eliminate dependence on foreign chips. Access to more advanced U.S. hardware doesn’t dilute that goal; historically, it has sped it up. In the 1990s, China’s telecom carriers relied almost entirely on Nortel, AT&T, Nokia, and Ericsson. Its banks ran IBM and Cisco hardware. No export controls, no political constraints — foreign tech flowed freely. Today, you won’t find foreign mainframes or foreign-made core telecom switches inside China’s critical infrastructure. Domestic firms displaced global leaders without needing Washington to push them. So the idea that supplying China with higher-end chips will somehow slow down localization is a fantasy. Every cycle shows the same pattern: when China gains access to the world’s best technology, it uses the breathing room to accelerate its own replacements. Meanwhile, Wang Yi is probably working past midnight trying to outdo that Forbidden City private tour Xi gave the Trumps last time. Good luck to him — topping a made-for-imperial-theatre walkthrough with Xi acting as personal guide is a tall order even in a system built for spectacle.