Matt Thompson

UNREAL: 🇺🇸 The Trump insider is already up $1,000,000 on his oil short. 10 trades became 11. 10 wins became 11. 100% win rate. Unchanged. This is not a coincidence anymore. This is a pattern that cannot be explained by skill alone. Someone in a very important room keeps picking up the phone. And nobody is stopping them.

Rally this week. Sell next week. Then get ready for the big move. We are ready.

$BTC here's what I think Bitcoin could do next. The incoming drop in BTC price would likely only take us about $90-97K area. In the meantime, price tries to test the 200 Day SMA. Once price tests the SMA properly, we will have the green light for further ATH. The key to understand is the Manipulator needs to convince the bottom sellers to buy back in at $100K. Then once price drops to $90K, a multi-week sideways action could convince them to abandon their longs again. Thereby losing even more money for these $80K bottom shorters / sellers. Of course, the Manipulator could just pump price straight to $120K now, leaving all of them behind. Really depends on how these bottom sellers behave in the next few days.

$BTC I'm still bullish. But now, it's just about waiting for just under 83.7k. So, just to clarify, even if we bounce now, or move anywhere between 90.8k and 83.7k, that's of no action for me personally. Now that our key level of 90.8k rejected again, I am going to be patient and wait for sub 83k to enter long. So key is to be bullish but patient as mentioned a few posts ago. Because we did not close a weekly below 81k, nothing of the bullish bias is invalidated, especially when we move down on news such as us government shutdown. That's more support that indeed we are setting a low and not breaking down, but likely below 83.7k, not above. Not much lower that. We are already seeing so much "celebration" on the bear market continuing, "I told you so", while we still haven't even made any new lows and are only 1000 points down or so from our last long entry. So sentiment also supports the fact we likely hold. Drop is not ideal indeed and I'm not going to act as if I shorted or predicted it all, you know I'm transparent and obviously we were long expecting higher. But we made the long risk free and you have been reminded multiple times to do so. So I'm quite glad to just get another opportunity below 83.7k to get long from a low level for free (como implications). We'll see if I am right on that, that's the bigger question. But that will only be told in the future. I'll see you by then, but I'll be the last to change plans when there is no need to and based on the chart and our high timeframe analysis, there is no need to. So conviction in bullish bias remains just equally as much as it has been 11 weeks ago, and is more important now than ever. And the plan remains to long below 83.7k as will be called out live when I get in, and get out of it. Getting close to 90.8k before taking out 83.7k for me, could mean a local short as well, but I'll talk about that only if needed. Main trade is a long below 83.7k. So I'll see you there.

$BTC 90.8k rejected, triangle entry at 86k given✅ The wait is over. I'm long again. Alright, 86k zone is reached. It has been a long wait to finally get here, mapping out confirmation levels above just in case they would confirm. Such as last time, where I talked about the market bringing me close to a long again. Where to re-long, the market didn't go quite deep enough by then so we gave the key condition of a long with only a 90.8k+ close as confirmation at that important level. Didn't happen and price ended up rejecting exactly at that level so no long announced yet, instead price naturally heading down bringing us to our range low area painted out a few posts ago. Neatly giving us a lower entry closer to the overall lows, fulfilling the job of our confirmation level. So we have indeed been quite patient and careful to wait for a long after exiting the remainders of our last one at 89k as well as the aggressive risky late longs, but it has been worth it. My overall weekly bias is still bullish, the area we are in is a strong POI, and reward is much larger given lower entry in the midst of a local sentiment peak again. We also have local mmd with ETH off the 84.5k low, and potential mmd with ETH off the 81k low as well if we head slightly lower. Furthermore, order flow confirms too with both a wide shorts-spot buys volume spread, good aggressive order capitulation into local limit buys (on perps, still in progress on spot) and longs shying so far which is what we wanted to see as a valid mask for the concerning spot discount (spot discount is bad but not in that situation). Yes, it is an aggressive long without local price conf, so I highly recommend starting half size, which is what I am doing here as well (add later on larger mdd with ETH conf if given or conf into next week). But it is a long none the less playing it close to our plan so no reason to hold back. A knife catch may feel risky. But what feels risky and uncomfortable now, likely turns around later in my view. Patience has been worth it, 86k is a very nice level we waited for, for a long time, so it only makes sense to grab it with all analysis laid out and playing out.