Concentrated Alpha Investor

Why did PM Modi say: “Don’t buy gold for 1 year & use petrol/diesel carefully”? 🤔 Let’s understand like a 5-year-old kid. 🧵

Iran and US both want oil prices to go up. Reason: US oil companies are making profits like nothing else by selling oil to the whole world. (Exports at all time high) Iran: Can make more money by selling oil at high prices and keep on running the economy. Also not sure if US really want to end this war or it's just showing off.

@tushar9590 From 45 crores to 1200 cr in 10 years, 27x in 10 years, great on big capital.

From portfolio of ₹22 Cr in 2017 to making it ₹1200 Cr in 2026. Ajay Upadhyaya has made it really big in investing. Made over : 70x in Navine Flourine 18x in Elecon Engineering 10x in Genus Power Bought a company in yesterday's bulk deal.

@Akshat_World 1 USD= 125, let the crude prices shoot up. And remember rupee was depreciating before war too.

1 USD= 100 INR. Soon! Here is what some of the top Economists are saying:- 1) Arvind Panagariya (16th Finance Commission Chairman) 100 is just a number. He urged the RBI not to let the psychology of ₹100/$ drive policy. Defending it through reserve depletion or NRI bond schemes is just a costly band-aid. 2) Gita Gopinath (Former IMF Deputy MD, Harvard): Don't fixate on the ₹100 number . "The relevant number is not the actual value of the exchange rate". And focus instead on inflation, jobs and growth. 3) Aberdeen Investments, MetLife & DBS Group — Rupee Could Hit 100 Aberdeen Investments and MetLife Investment Management are among those that see the possibility of the rupee weakening to 100 per dollar. DBS Group Holdings has revised its forecast range to 95–100 from 90–95. The consensus Bloomberg estimate shows 94.75 by year-end, while the one-year dollar-rupee forward breached 100 for the first time. ******** Key-takeaway: there seems to be a strong consensus of 1USD= 100Rs now. More importantly, RBI is being cautioned not to intervene too much. And, let the rupee slide. 100 INR to 1 USD is likely to be the new baseline.

🧵Why does BHEL trade at 90 PE even with only ~20% growth?🙂‍↔️ Is it a great business… or just too few shares available?👀 Show this tweet to your 5 yr old kid so he learns how stock markets work👶

🚨This is how government is setting a fake narrative in front of you to increase petrol and diesel prices🚨 It took me days to understand what's actually going on in oil since this war. Read this carefully and it will blow your mind. I TALK DATA...👇 1.Petroleum Ministry saying OMCs are suffering a daily loss of 750 crore rupees on sale of petrol and diesel. 2.Government imported 1.32 lakh crore worth of crude in the month of April of which 52000 cr worth of crude oil was exported when there is scarcity of crude in your own country just for the benefit of some private companies. In fact they are still exporting refined products of crude and minting huge money. No need for me to name the companies. On other hand PM Modi requested 140 cr Indians to use less petrol/diesel. 3.BPCL yesterday announces we have no stress on our balance sheets for FY 27. So this is completely contradictory to the petroleum ministers statement. Also remember the government never passed on the benefits to the consumer since last 4 years when crude prices were $60. India wAs buying crude from Russia along with a discount of 10-15$/barrel. 4. In 2014, excise duty on petrol was 9 rs and it was ~2.86rs on diesel. Till now the government has increased excise duty 16 times. Yes you heard that right humongous 16 times. Today excise duty on petrol is 33.90rs and diesel is 32.80 rs. Note that the Government has printed 43 lakh crore in 11 years by doing so. OMCs balance sheets are as strong as ever. Look at BPCL,HPCL OR IOCL. Now let's get into current oil economics. India's crude basket is ~110$ / barrel which means India's average buying cost of crude is ~110$. Physical deliverable value comes around ~126$/barrel. Today 1$=97 rs. At crude oil price of around $110/barrel and USD/INR near ₹96.9, India’s approx internal/base cost of diesel would roughly look like this: Crude Cost Calculation 1 barrel = 159 litres So crude cost per litre: 110*96.9÷159=67 So raw crude itself costs about ₹67/litre. Then add: Refining cost: ₹4–6 Freight + insurance: ₹2–3 OMC margin: ₹2–4 Dealer commission: ₹2–3 Ethanol/biodiesel blending/logistics That brings the internal pre-tax diesel cost to roughly: ₹76–82/litre. So practically OMCs are still not making losses as pump prices are 94 rs. So it is clear that the government is trying to create a fake narrative and gain sympathy for OMCs that will allow them to hike prices silently. Just want to say, hiking prices will lead to rising inflation and ultimately everyone including all LADLI BEHNAS AND LADLA BABUS will suffer. This I tweeted so that the common man should understand how he is getting played with his emotions and convey that the government should not make a mistake of understanding everyone a fool in this country.

@zangetss 100% agreed, otherwise we are closed to getting doomed

@multibaggerwala Govt exists to make ppls lives easier even if govt has to subsidize Indefinitely. Indians need to ask tougher questions to every govt without exceptions

@MscMnd It's a scam going on

@multibaggerwala Dont forget, govt sold us 80% petrol at price of 100% petrol, bought at even cheaper rates.

Indian ruppee needs protection. It's getting fucked everyday.

Remove LTCG to save rupee. Reduce FII selling and let dollars stay in india.

@RK_Capital No

@multibaggerwala Do you have a 5 yr old who understands this 😅

Very few understand what the market is thinking behind those numbers. That’s exactly why our community is growing differently. 🚀 Don't miss to be that rare part of community. Monthly meets to take your understanding at another level superprofile.bio/concentratedal…

Most people only look at PE and say: “Overvalued.” But real investing is understanding: psychology liquidity future expectations cycles positioning narrative That’s where big money gets made. Most people read numbers.