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Manav Jain
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Manav Jain
@mutha_manav
all about personal growth, entrepreneurship and anything in between.
India Katılım Ağustos 2018
495 Takip Edilen104 Takipçiler
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His biggest bet is Pharma and among that #GRANULES started studying post this interview.
Everyone Agrees on This Stock But Here’s the Real Opportunity | The Bro... youtu.be/8-0zJPdbsXE?is… via @YouTube

YouTube
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Sell these companies: they have a near lifetime high EV/EBITDA multiple, and EBITDA is not in a "low cycle", and you cannot justify the optimism. Sell. Twin-engine thrust unlikely to sustain.
Buy these: a near lifetime low EV/EBITDA multiple, and EBITDA is not in a "high cycle", and you cannot justify the pessimism. Buy. You get twin-engine benefits. Re-rating and growth.
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Manav Jain retweetledi

Info Edge turned ₹3,950 crore into ₹36,850 crore through investments in 111 startups since 2007 - a mind boggling 36% IRR
But, 90% of this value (₹31,500 crore) comes from 2 companies - PB FinTech (₹8,500 crore) & Eternal (₹23,000 crore) which were investments made in 2008 & 2010.
When you remove these outliers, the remaining ₹2,875 crore invested by IE is marked at approx. ₹5,350 crore (a little less than x2)
Mr Bikhchandani wrote an excellent shareholder letter which shared 3 lessons about startup investing:
(1) The Power Law of Returns
(2) Vintage Matters - Children become Adults over time
(3) Staying Power is a Superpower
Lets dive into these lessons ⤵️

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Manav Jain retweetledi
Manav Jain retweetledi
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In October 2008, professor Sanjay Bakshi gave
a lecture on business model of Indraprastha Gas Limited, a monopolist supplier of CNG and PNG.
> It has given a total of 18% CAGR for 17 years excluding dividends since then.
> It was a business with great ROCE more than 50%. Price to book of 2.1 times, Market cap to sales of 2 times in 2008.
> Today, the business is valued at a similar price to book of 2.1 times and Market cap to sales of 1.3 times (lowest in history) as in 2008.
> Rajeev Thakkar of PPFAS is also betting on City gas distribution businesses and owns Indraprastha and Mahanagar Gas in his flexi cap fund.
> There are apprehensions around the stock due to current Iran war, government pushing for EV vehicles and regulations on pricing.
Will Indraprastha overcome these challenges? Will the cheapness in stock prove to be a value buy? Only time will tell.
Read below article written by Professor Sanjay Bakshi in October, 2008 which led to his investment in IGL




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Chennai Airport after scamming the people by calling it an airport is now scamming passengers coming to drop the passengers in different ways. Pathetic @aaichnairport 😤
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Manav Jain retweetledi

@Tanmay_31_ Can you throw some light on MBEL, such a good company but falling drastically? Are you still holding it?
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POWERICA Limited IPO
Detailed Analysis 👇
Risk Takers Can Evaluate For Small Listing Gains, Others Can Evaluate For Medium Term Post-Listing
Highlights of the Issue :
Date : 24-27 March
Price Band : 375-395
Size : 1,100 Crore
Fresh - 700 Crore
OFS - 400 Crore
M.cap : 4,998 Crore
Objects Of The Issue :
▪︎ Repayment Of Debt - 525 Crore
▪︎ GCP - 175 Crore
Key Pointers :
▪︎ Powerica is a Leading Manufacturer of Diesel Generator (DG) Sets, Medium sized large generators (MSLG); It also operates in the Wind Energy Segment as an IPP and also does EPC, BoP, and O&M activities
▪︎ The Company operates as an OEM of Diesel Generator (DG) Sets for Cummins India and its affiliates with a relationship of over 40 Years,
It Manufactures MSLGs for Hyundai Heavy Engineering on a Non-exclusive basis with a relationship of 30 Years
▪︎ Powerica's comprehensive range of generator sets has capacities ranging from 7.5 kVA to 10,000 kVA, designed to meet the distinctive requirements of diverse industries and applications.
▪︎ Powerica's Wind Energy Segment consists of an Operational Independent Power Producer (IPP) Portfolio of 330 MW
▪︎ The Company is aiming to significantly Deleverage its Balance sheet Leading to saving of interest costs
Financials and Personal Assumptions
FY23
Revenue : 2,422 Crore
PAT : 106.4 Crore
FY24
Revenue : 2,357 Crore
PAT : 226.3 Crore
FY25
Revenue : 2,711 Crore
PAT : 166.8 Crore
Cash PAT : 269 Crore
H1 FY26
Revenue : 1,475 Crore
PAT : 128.9 Crore
FY26E
Revenue : 3,050 Crore
PAT : 230 Crore
Cash PAT : 340 Crore
FY27E
Revenue : 3,450 Crore
PAT : 250 Crore
Cash PAT : 450 Crore
Valuing A Business having 2 distinct business verticals cannot be done combined,
Valuing DG Sets business at 20× FY27E PAT,
Standalone DG set Target Valuation : 4,200 Cr
Valuing Wind Energy vertical at 10× Cash PAT,
Standalone Wind Energy target Valuation : 2,000 Cr
Anticipated Price for the Consolidated Entity comes at 490, Implying An Upside Of 24%
There are few negative rather less positive things about the company like, Growth coming up should be 8-10% for the DG Sets business(Incl.MSLG),
The wind energy should grow at 20% CAGR (Subject to timely Commencement)
Markets are not very positive towards slow growth companies, Also Powerica is no match to Kirloskar, Kirloskar is the untouchable player in the segment
The Pent-up interest Costs should depress the P&L in the H2 FY26, the company would raise further debt to finance the next set of IPPs hence don't expect the interest costs lowering down significantly
Also the DG Sets business has a very low margin profile, the whole margins look decent due to pent-up margin profile of Wind Energy Segment (especially IPP)
I Personally don't Consider Diesel Generator Sets business a Sunrise industry, so don't see This company getting valued Richly
This is clearly observed in the IPO pricing, The pricing already discounts these negative factors, But not sure whether Low Growth might lead to a further long-term debating
Just A Personal View, Only For Educational Purposes

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Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar Exports Limited IPO
(#AeroplaneRice)
Detailed Analysis 👇
AVOID
Highlights of the Issue :
Date : 24-27 March
Price Band : 210-212
Size : 440 Crore
(Full Fresh)
*Company Has Already Raised 13 Cr as Pre-IPO Placement at 172/- share
M.cap : 2,195 Crore
Objects Of The Issue :
▪︎ Funding Working Capital Requirements - 400 Crore
▪︎ GCP - 40 Crore
Key Pointers :
▪︎ The Company is India's one of the Largest producers and exporters of basmati rice under the Flagship Brand 'Aeroplane Rice', and other brands including La-Taste, Alibaba, World Cup, Hani, Palm Tree, Budallah, Sophia, and Al Jazira
▪︎ ACJKL has a installed production capacity of 550,800 MTPA, with a wide distribution network of over 431 distributors in India and
53 distributors globally
▪︎ The Company is Currently exporting to over 38 countries, The revenue split between domestic and Exports stand at ~62% and ~38% respectively
▪︎ The Company aims to infuse the fresh capital in its Working Capital to restrict itself from raising further debt
Financials and Personal Assumptions :
FY23
Revenue : 1,318 Crore
PAT : 17.5 Crore
FY24
Revenue : 1,551 Crore
PAT : 30.4 Crore
FY25
Revenue : 2,004 Crore
PAT : 60.8 Crore
H1 FY26
Revenue : 1,024.3 Crore
PAT : 48.6 Crore
FY26E
Revenue : 2,150 Crore
PAT : 100 Crore
FY27E
Revenue : 2,410 Crore
PAT : 115 Crore
Valuing Aeroplane Rice at 15× FY27E PAT, Anticipated Value Comes At 155, Implying An Downside of 27%
The IPO is priced aggressively, Peers with significantly larger scale at half multiples, leaving no scope for new investors
Positives :
▪︎ Good Brand Awareness
▪︎ Evergreen Segment
▪︎ Strong international presence
▪︎ Venture into FMCG staples
Negatives :
▪︎ Very Expensive Valuations
▪︎ Good Exposure to the Middle East (20% Revenues)
▪︎ Sudden Jump in Margins Raises Concerns
▪︎ High Debt Numbers (No reduction Post-IPO)
▪︎ Low Capacity Utilization
▪︎ High Dependance on Top-10 Customers (~45%)
▪︎ Modest margins than peers
▪︎ High Competition intensity
▪︎ Peers with significantly higher scale available at better valuations
▪︎ The FMCG Staples market is very crowdy with low margins
The Anchor Book was undersubscribed, Translating weaker Institutional Demand
I would be Personally Avoiding This IPO ❌️
Just A Personal View, Only For Educational Purposes

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