Nacho

Why inflation will drop MARKEDLY in to 2023 😱 A thread.. (If you want to keep betting on higher inflation, then look away now..)

Now we have a rough understanding of the supply. We can easily put these tokens into 4 groups based on inflation & supply cap. ▪ Inflationary + cap ▪ Inflationary + no cap ▪ Deflationary + cap ▪ Deflationary + no cap Let's go through them one by one.

90 years of bear markets visualized by magnitude of declines and duration in trading days. Wondering where is the 2000 bear market? It would require another scale as it lasted for so freaking long!

14/ Assuming you aren't part of the gigabrain 5% of traders that are right-curving their way to generational wealth, I think most traders are better off trying to perfect their 2nd order skills and spend a bit less time endlessly searching for the perfect 1st order skills

Wild explanation by @cmsholdings of how hard it was to move money and crypto around in the early days. Reminds us of @gabrielleydon's broken but growing concept from @InvestLikeBest.

Falling Into Productivity Traps Hustle culture lied to you. Obsessively optimizing your time with new "productive" activities is actually counter-productive. Free time is a call option on future interesting opportunities. It provides the headspace to pursue high upside ideas.

@StowellLenny 1. megacaps are all coverd, and they have more liquidity 2. risk & agency-problem: i.e. analysts just wanna keep their jobs and if they go long on a name that other analysts also went long on but everyone gets skrewed, then they personally can't get blamed/scapegoated

4/ Hedge funds can't sit out / sit on cash. Gotta deploy. When u don't have any strong conviction trades, you can sit out! When hedge fund analysts don't, they must put on "dumber" low-conviction trades (must make LPs/boss happy!) Bank traders too (must provide liquidity!)

In Blackjack, basic strategy refers to the best possible moves a player can make in a particular situation (Face card that house shows). This is a table that every successful card counter must commit to memory.

I interviewed paper co-author @glenweyl. He predicts that SBTs will be available for early uses by the end of 2022. He also said, "I suspect the 2024 up cycle will focus on them." But, wait - what's the point of NFTs that can never be transferred? Here's 3 use cases.

Bitcoin is 1.6 standard deviations (stdev) below trend adoption already. Last time it was this cheap was in March 2020. (data from 2014 to today) For reference: - $23.5k is 2 stdev below trend - $13.7k is 3 stdev below. 2/

@swmartin19 3/ Validators in a PoS network have less incentive to sell because: -There are lower operational costs to run a validator -Validators have a literal stake in the network -ETH will often be deflationary

@ABTestingAlpha state adoption = percolating? twitter.com/nayibbukele/st…

lol i had to zoom out, still wasn't able to show all the ded narratives. biggest change is 'sell everything' = *the* most active, algostables ded -> active, & zé merge is now squarely in the ded column. tho lot of headwinds rn, worth watching for how these shift around.

the universe of tokens resembling businesses with 'fundamentals' is extremely small tokens which: 1. cant easily have their code forked (either b/c off-chain work is being done, or for brand/trust reasons) 2. generate revenue 3. do not have vesting overhang from private buyers

30/ So it is absolutely fine to strive for money (that is how our economic system is organized), but keep a part of your brain, a part of your heart permanently separate from money A cup of coffee with a friend is the same experience regardless of the price of ETH.

22/ Here are 4 scenarios for example: a) Prices range here for years b) Prices swing to normal cycle lows of 85% down (BTC $10,000 and ETH $720), range for years, cycle back up c) post Russian Central Bank sanctions, Central Banks pour into BTC (up only) d) crypto actually dies

1/ While I think market timing is futile, I have a list of heuristics I observe as likely catalysts for tops, such as - High valuations (relative to history) - Large unlocks - % of value from leverage - Unwinding of monetary policy conducive to bull twitter.com/mrjasonchoi/st…