Nathaniel Taplin

1/ As we prepare to leave #Hualien, which is still trembling — seemingly small aftershocks nearly every half hour, or even more frequently — here is our big piece on the quake with @joyuwang and @ByChunHan wsj.com/world/china/ta…

1/ Why is #Taiwan struggling so mightily to confront the existential threat posed by its 96% dependence on imported #energy? bit.ly/487oGR2 Some interesting parallels with America’s struggle to build and “the abundance agenda,” highlighted by people like @ezraklein, @DKThomp and @danwwang At the heart of the problem: both major Taiwanese political coalitions (#DPP & #KMT-TPP) caving to parochial interest groups in ways that put all of TW at risk in a #blockade. The Taiwanese version of “the groups” includes not only the anti-nuclear movt on the DPP side but also the farm/agriculture lobby—which both major parties are fighting over. One result: farmland gets prioritized over energy development, even though TW manifestly needs energy more than it needs food to survive a blockade. In other words, Taiwan’s “Achilles Heel” isn’t just energy but the islands’ dysfunctional politics. Taiwan’s struggling #solar sector is a perfect example: (thread continues)

6/ The stakes resting on these seemingly esoteric details of #Taiwan’s #energy policy are in fact enormous. If TW’s power demand and renewable electricity output both keep growing at the average rate of the past 5 years—about 1% and 18% respectively—TW’s grid will still be nearly 80% dependent on imported fossil fuels in 2028. That’s a year after US intel says Xi wants the #PLA ready to take Taiwan. And if renewable power output slows further—not unlikely given the political roadblocks—that figure could look even worse. Boosting nuclear back to 2020 levels, on the other hand, would take import dependence down below 70%, and close to 60% by 2030. Here’s my cover story for The Wire China if you haven’t seen it yet: bit.ly/487oGR2

5/ So to summarize, if you’re a #solar developer in #Taiwan: -extraordinarily difficult to get land -both major political coalitions cater to the farm/NIMBY vote at the expense of energy -you pay a lot for materials: cheap Chinese solar panels are restricted -getting local building/environmental permits is incredibly fraught, esp. after the KMT’s recent victories and a spate of corruption scandals -the grid is financially stressed and struggling to incorporate renewables Not exactly a shock that the renewable transition is struggling under these conditions... …and in the meantime, Taiwan imports more #LNG and China keeps rehearsing its blockades. If that’s not an argument for an #abundanceagenda, then I’m not sure what is.

Read my latest for @nytimes , together with my colleague Dr. Jennifer Wong-Leung, featuring our latest ASPI research: Shutting out China’s best minds will only push them into a homegrown Chinese research ecosystem that is already eclipsing American universities.

Neat piece by my old boss @Spencerjakab on the role of con men, serial exaggerators and other shady characters in America’s economic rise: bit.ly/3KxPX5o Interesting parallel with China, where there’s plenty of evidence that the widespread “bending of the rules” by officials and private biz in the pre-Xi era—when the central govt was weaker—was a net tailwind to growth (for example the recent NBER paper by @david_yang et al.). Often because it allowed lots of regional experimentation and competition, and greasing of the wheels by private firms at a structural disadvantage getting bank loans, etc.

10) #Taiwan’s reserve situation is also not quite as dire as widely perceived: Taiwanese govt think tank @TaiwanDset estimates that existing reserves of coal and LNG, along with solar, could keep Taiwan powered for at least 46 days. Rationing might stretch reserves further.

1) A thread on #Taiwan’s #LNG problem—drawing on my story for @thewirechina TW is using more and more LNG but had below 2 weeks of reserves in 2024. A big liability in a blockade. Buying more US @alaskalng could help deter China—but isn’t a slam dunk on its own. More below.

11) If you’ve enjoyed this thread on #Taiwan’s #LNG dilemma and want to learn more, including on what’s going on here with #nuclear and #solar, have a look a look at my cover story for @thewirechina and consider subscribing! thewirechina.com/2025/09/28/tai…