Natalie Purdy

Since the early 2000s, Australia has lost 6 refineries Today, we refine just 12.8% of diesel, 35.3% of petrol and 14.9% of jet fuel we use Geography matters consumers around Brisbane & Geelong might face fewer supply crunches - they are home to the last two refineries

2026, day 69 Good morning from Asia. ‘Donald Trump said the war with Iran would end “very soon”’ (FT) “but indicated to reporters it would not be within the next week”; ‘Trump Advisers Urge Him to Find Iran Exit Ramp, Fearing Political Backlash’ (WSJ) - “The president told reporters on Monday that he thought the war in Iran would be over ‘very soon’”; ‘Trump Warns Iran to Keep Strait of Hormuz Open’ (WSJ); ‘G7 ‘stands ready’ to release emergency oil reserves’ (FT) - “Finance ministers pledge ‘necessary measures’ to tackle surging crude prices with deal expected as soon as Tuesday”; ‘Japan gives order to prepare for release of oil reserves’ (Nikkei Asia); ‘U.S. and Iran Predicted a Very Different War Than the One Now Being Waged’ (WSJ) - “Economic disruption stemming from the conflict is hurting countries worldwide—while providing a windfall to Russia”; ‘Iran bets on endurance, energy disruption to outlast US, Israel’ (Reuters); ‘More attacks on Shaybah oil field despite Saudi warnings to Iran’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Trump's Gaza plan on hold as Iran war pauses disarmament talks, sources say’ (Reuters); ‘Troops Mass as Landlocked Ethiopia Chases Access to the Sea’ (WSJ) - “The threat of civil war is returning, too, after 600,000 died last time”; ‘Gulf attention is turning inward: why the Iran war could destabilise the Horn of Africa’ (The Conversation); ‘Hezbollah preparing for long war, US pours cold water on Lebanon-Israel talks proposal’ (JPost); ‘Syrian president declares support for Lebanon’s effort to disarm Hezbollah’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Aoun accuses Hezbollah of working toward ‘collapse’ of Lebanese state for Iran’s sake’ (Al Arabiya); ‘Top EU officials say no tears shed over fall of Iranian regime, but warn of ‘chaos’ ahead’ (Politico); ‘Von der Leyen shifts EU's global focus to security’ (Euractiv) - “Security should become the 'organising principle' of Europe's foreign policy, says Commission president”; ‘France preparing to escort ships in Strait of Hormuz when war calms: Macron’ (Al Jazeera); In geoeconomics, ‘Why Iranian Regime Change Would Transform Global Energy Markets’ (WSJ) - “One of the largest oil industries in the world has been strangled for years by international sanctions”; ‘Trump reviews options to curb energy prices as Iran strikes roil markets’ (Reuters) - “options include restricting U.S. exports, intervening in oil futures markets, waiving some federal taxes and lifting requirements under a U.S. law called the Jones Act that domestic fuel move only on U.S.-flagged ships, among others”; ‘China’s financial superpower ambitions get legal backing at ‘two sessions’’ (SCMP); ‘Economic Security 101: why China’s officials now have to study rare earths and supply chains’ (SCMP); ‘Japan's Proterial eyes making magnets without heavy rare earths in North America’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Former Hitachi unit targets businesses aiming to lower reliance on China: president”; ‘US reaches agreement to end prosecution of Turkey’s Halkbank’ (FT); In markets, ‘’Unfathomable’: Oil traders left reeling after historic 24 hours’ (AFR); ‘Iran War Is Giving Markets a Covid-Like Shock’ (BBG); ‘Trump sons back launch of new military drone company’ (FT); ‘Anthropic Sues U.S. Defense Department, Pete Hegseth for Targeting the Company’ (WSJ); ‘Canada's banking regulator warns major lenders about lending practices as condo prices crash’ (Reuters); ‘Indonesian fund Danantara chases Prabowo's dreams, but spurs major doubts’ (Nikkei Asia)

Oil moving 25%+ in a single day. OIS curve pricing twice as many hikes as it was on Friday. On current trajectory we could be headed toward demand destruction territory where the logic begins to invert and the RBA cuts to prioritise financial stability.

Why haven’t grain prices surged like diesel and crude? It’s a common question across ag markets right now. The answer starts with geography. 🧵 Day zero refers to last business day prior to outbreak of the conflict

CBOT wheat prices long term cycles History does not repeat itself, but it surely can rhyme For a robust 2026 price rally it is still missing a weather problem in a key export region

🎤 Presenter Announcement @FaceyGroup is excited to welcome Paul Joules, Commodity Analyst with RaboResearch @RabobankAU, as a presenter at our 2026 Trials Review & Pre-Seeding Catch Up 🌾 Based in Sydney, Paul delivers data-driven insights across grains, oilseeds, fertilisers, cotton and agricultural land values. With global experience spanning London and Australia — and farming roots on a mixed dairy, beef and arable farm in Wales — Paul brings a powerful blend of practical on-farm understanding and international market expertise. 📅 Thursday, 5 March 2026 ⏰ 4:00pm 👉 Register now: bit.ly/3NyCb3E Proudly sponsored by @TheGRDC Sundowner to follow thanks to @SummitFertz #FaceyGroup #GRDC #TrialsReview #PreSeeding #AgMarkets #Grains #RaboResearch #Rabobank #AustralianAgriculture #GrowerUpdate #Sundowner

Current rainfall outlook for April through to August is below average. Thanks to a potential El Nino and positive IOD in July. Hopefully the outlook is more optimistic when I present at the Kalannie @GRDCWest updates on 10 March. Also at Wagin Woolorama 6-7 March.

📈 Local trial data = real paddock decisions Don’t miss one of our standout events on the @FaceyGroup calendar. Our 2025 Trials Review & Pre-Seeding Catch Up will share results from our 2025 trials, with local, relevant information and grower-focused insights to help guide our members’ 2026 season. What to expect: ✔️ In-depth trial results ✔️ Presentations from key industry specialists ✔️ Q&A + discussion time 📆 Thursday 5 March 2026 | 🕓 4pm–8pm FREE for members | $40 non-members Register now: bit.ly/3NyCb3E #growergroups #localagresearch #FaceyGroup #TrialsReview #LocalTrials #PreSeeding #GrowerFocused #OnFarmDecisions #WAgrains #GRDC @thegrdc

Aussie OIS now pricing better than 70% chance of Feb hike after Q4 trimmed CPI came in at 0.9% QoQ/3.4% YoY. Monthly COI series shows modest 0.2% MoM trimmed-mean and return to disinflation for owner occupied housing and rents, but market services ex volatiles looks very strong.

@RobertKitto1 Merry Christmas 🎄 Kitto family

Merry Christmas everyone , I hope you all have a fantastic day , enjoy , reflect and enjoy . Stay safe , have fun , forgive and appreciate , let’s do it all again next year 🥳🥳

@Jusakstud @MrsJusak Merry Christmas to the Walkers 🎄

Merry Christmas everyone from all of us here at Jusak @MrsJusak

@LeighStrange1 😪👎👎

Typical storms. One minute a fire from lightning next minute its flooded 😆

Looking for a Metallica ticket for myself and 2 boys. Please share🤘🤘 tixel.com/u/danielm1034

🇷🇺 wheat crop keeps going up, good rainfall in the Black Sea, wheat carry likely to build up in 🇨🇦 and 🇦🇺 , more 🇺🇸 tariffs on the way, 🇨🇳placing port fees over 🇺🇸vessels and companies CBOT wheat front-month has significant downside before reaching historical support

@Jusakstud Well that is 👎👎 💔

Didn't want to harvest that much grain anyway

💬No laptop? No worries! You don’t need to be a tech whiz or bring your own gear to get value out of the @theGRDC Grain Automate Expo – WICKEPIN this Thursday! Whether you’re curious about automation, want to see live machinery demos, or just keen to hear from experts & growers doing great things — you’re welcome!! 🗂️ AND the full agenda is now LIVE! Check out what’s happening when, who’s speaking & where to be. From digital farming tips to deep tillage rippers in action — it’s all here 👇 🔹 Bindi Isbister – Turning precision ag data into paddock decisions 🔹 Dr Roger Lawes – @CSIRO scientist leading the Grain Automate project 🔹 Tim Neale – Digital agronomy guru & @data_farming founder 🔹 Mick Caughey – Merredin grower & VRT advocate walking the talk 🔹 Jordy Kitschke – @flux_robotics Robotics innovator tackling chemical use with AI 🔹 Dr Gaus Azam & Jenni Clausen (@DPIRDMedia) – Soil scientists decoding what works, where & why 💻 Bring your laptop if you want to dive into your own data — but you’ll still get plenty from the sessions without it. 📅 Thursday 3 July 🕘 8:30am–5:00pm 📍 Wickepin & Commodine 👉 Reg here: bit.ly/454ibwT Powered by: @SPAA_Inc @WANTFA_farming @FaceyGroup @MADFIG14 @theGRDC #growergroups #agresearch #growerledlocalresearch #GrainAutomate #AgTech #Automation #FutureFarming #MachineryDemoDay #AgendaNowLIVE #MeetTheMinds #AgrarianManagement #SPAACommittee

In my latest RaboResearch report I examine Australia’s place in the changing geopolitical landscape through the lens of Economic Statecraft. You can read it here 👇 rabobank.com/knowledge/link…

2025, day 100 Good morning from Australia. Well, the 100-day mark (here) is certainly a landmark… and I get my first good night’s sleep in a while and wake up to see: The trade war shifts again, as the U.S. pauses most tariffs for 90 days but raises those to China to 125%, which is imposing 84% on the U.S. A 10% universal reciprocal tariff for others stays, along with the 25% sectoral tariffs; It’s now openly the case that the U.S. is isolating China from everyone else. Pick a side time. The 90-day deadline to agree to that is… 4 July!; Suggestions are the U.S. may also taper its upcoming port fees, but again China is the target. As the White House releases a new executive order to target U.S. maritime dominance; whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/20… Markets naturally soar on the tariff news… as the U.S. Treasury Secretary says the next 4 years are all about Main Street not Wall Street. You have been told as clearly as can be what to expect there; Politico says, ‘Meloni’s solo Trump visit triggers anxiety in France’x and “French industry chief warns against European disunity on trade as Italian PM heads to the White House.” EU disunity? Surely not!; Iran dangles a huge potential carrot ahead of talks with the U.S. on Saturday. Jaw-jaw or war-war?; The FT, with impeccable timing, says there is no point in cleverly searching for a grand strategy in what President Trump is doing and the concept of a new global security, economic, and financial accord is “laughable”. They are on a rich vein of form at the moment - perhaps they could hire Jim Cramer?

AUD rallying hard while our largest trading partner has 125% tariffs enacted against it, our 10% tariffs + 25% on steel and aluminium remain unchanged, pharma tariffs likely on the way and the US Treasury Secretary making noises about a united front to isolate China 😬