J Chris
1.1K posts



So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks can trigger financial shocks. Oil spikes are inflationary & often recessionary. Private credit cracks can turn into ravines. But somehow, high yield spreads have stayed range-bound - up 28% from Jan bottom & back at March '25 levels (before they exploded 50%) - but still contained why IG is hit ($BX $OWL $APO $ARES). Color me skeptical. $JNK & $HYG look like an accident ready to happen. Not if just when. Software-concentrated credit across both private and public books has yet to be repriced. I expect further spread widening in leveraged loans/HY as tighter refinancing conditions develop this year. Why bulls remain steadfast now is because HY credit & corp earnings have not deteriorated, yet. But when they do, we will already be IN a bear market. Watch the 10Y yield rise > 4.33% into 4.6 soon. Then everyone will see what I see coming. Also, @tradingNQdaily summed up well: "IG underperforming HY on dislocations is the tell. When the high-grade names are more dislocated, it means duration risk is the real problem, not credit risk. The Fed has a bond market problem, not just an equity problem." This year, duration risk and credit risk will be the problem. The market just doesn't see it yet.




@colin_gladman Cos of twats like you 🤣




Hey everyone, I have been in mental breakdown past two days and finally to calm myself down. I never cried too hard in my life. Many of you knew me as the guy who turned $300 into $200,000–$300,000 in just a few months trading $SPY. Lately there’s been a lot of positive and negative noise around me, but today hit the hardest. My biggest mistake was pure ignorance and sizing way too big despite solid advice from experienced traders here. I ignored it at times, and today I paid the full price for it. To be honest, I’m left with $10,000. It’s only April, with 8 months left in 2026. I’m determined to build it back up. This lesson will stay with me forever. To all the traders out there: please use my story as a warning. Don’t be like me, control your emotions and your size. And I will continue to post about $SPY and others, I deeply appreciate every single one of you on here.🙇♂️




Back in February, I stated that the Weekly Buy Signal would trigger in either the first or second week of April. It triggered in the first week. The bulls now have a clear bullish window into May to see how high they can push the market.

















$48 million into these $QQQ puts now. We still thinking TACO? 😳


2 week ceasefire.














