gm, $RAIL broke below its lowest trading channel today for the first time since the Kohaku runup in early october. for the past 2 months, $RAIL has traded within 3 clear channels: $2.00–$3.20 $3.20–$4.30 $4.30–$5.55 on oct 30, I posted “I am heavily allocated to $RAIL with an average price of ~$1.50. If it breaks below [$2.00] support, I will start buying again.” today, I bought a lot more $RAIL between $1.70-$1.80. why? 1) i am currently writing a @messaricrypto valuation report on $RAIL, coming out in the next few weeks. My base case valuation puts anything below $2-$3 as discounted. The report is ~30 pages and gives a full breakdown of RAILGUN’s privacy tech, post-Kohaku addressable market, and a detailed revenue-driven valuation model. 2) at ~$100M FDV, RAILGUN is trading at roughly a 20x revenue multiple based on ~$4-5M in annual revenue. This already looks reasonable for an infra protocol with real cash flow. However, RAILGUN has a clear path to tens of millions in annual revenue once the Kohaku Wallet SDK goes live. At that point, a $100M FDV implies a 10x multiple or lower. For context: Virtuals ~39x, Aave ~28x, Hyperliquid ~27x, etherfi ~14x, Raydium ~20x. 3) $RAIL is still not listed on any major centralized exchanges. Most volume sits on XT, Uniswap, and Sushi. That materially limits access for larger players looking to get discounts on the privacy narrative. 4) the Kohaku Wallet SDK by the @ethereumfndn is not live yet. No major wallet integrations have been announced. However, this effort is being led by @vitalikbuterin, who recently demoed a RAILGUN-integrated Kohaku wallet at Devconnect. Once the SDK goes live and wallets begin integrating it, RAILGUN’s TAM expands exponentially. A single MetaMask-style integration exposes RAILGUN to tens of millions of users overnight. 5) this $RAIL dip, in line with the broader market, does not change the thesis for me. it gives me another opportunity to accumulate one of Ethereum’s emerging core infra protocols. 6) railtardio.
