Nickolas Goline

I have now fully open sourced the code which creates this on-chain BIP-444 futures contract! The contract starts with an atomic deposit into the contract address of 1 BTC each (to make sure both parties put in the same amount into the contract address). Context: BIP-444 makes the use of OP_IF & OP_NOTIF consensus INVALID upon activation. The contract is built as follows: The taproot address uses the NUMS point as described in BIP341, to provably show the key path is not active. We have two parties, a "YES" (444 activates) and "NO" (444 does NOT activate). YES and NO for short. The first leaf is a 2 of 2 multisig of both parties. This exists to be able to self send the UTXO AFTER BIP 444 activates. This is because BIP-444 just added a clause that UTXOs created before activation will NOT have the BIP-444 consensus rules applied to them. This self send removes that exception. The second leaf: has 2 ways you can spend with it, a 2 of 2 (YES and NO) multisig, just like the first leaf OR the NO party, with a time lock which is LESS THAN the third tap leaf. This is important because it uses OP_NOTIF The Third Leaf: The YES party can spend, after a time lock AFTER the second leaf. The order of the timelocks is important. If BIP-444 activates, the spending condition that can spend before you will be consensus invalid, so it doesn't matter if you believe 444 activates. So to summarize: - If BIP-444 DOES activate, the party who believes it will be able to use the second tap leaf to get 2 BTC out. - If BIP-444 DOES NOT activate, the party who believes that will use the third tap leaf to get 2 BTC out. Since each side is highly confident in their position, the fair market price is a 1:1 ratio, implying 50% likelihood. With 85 days until activation, this contract as written gives you an implied ~430% APY on your bitcoin! The risk is being incorrect on your opinion of BIP-444 activating. You could modify the collateral each side puts up to get different implied odds of the futures contract as well. Code and example address below 👇

For anyone who thinks BIP 444 will activate, I will happily offer you an ability to make more bitcoin. We each deposit 1 BTC into a taproot address with two spending conditions: 1. Time locked so that you can withdraw June 1st next year at a depth of 1 in the tap tree. 2. Time locked so I can withdraw May 1st next year at a depth of 128 in the tap tree. If BIP444 activates, you get 2 BTC out of the address (because my spend path would be consensus invalid). If BIP444 does not activate, I get 2BTC out of the address. DMs are open, we can use a dedicated escrow agent as third key if necessary, would obviously provide auditable code to show there are no tricks. We can also atomically fund the transaction using a multi input transaction into this taproot address to guarantee all parties fund the address. Only condition is the bet is public. Willing to consider odds if you're of lower conviction.

Capture The Bitcoin Taproot Tree: