Nick Braun
1.9K posts

Nick Braun
@nickbraun
“In God we trust. All others must bring data.”
USA Katılım Nisan 2022
1K Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler

Most people calculate investment returns the wrong way.
The best method: IRR (Internal Rate of Return).
It accounts for the timing of cash invested and returned, giving you a true apples-to-apples comparison.
Quick breakdown:
dailydime.com/internal-rate-…
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@nickbraun @theblaze So that is failing but right now America is winning? If that’s failing, I wanna fail too.
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🚨 TRUMP JUST PUMMELED THE NYT
"When does this Corrupt Media Outlet apologize for their LIES and horrible actions against me, my supporters, and our Country itself! HAVE THEY NO SHAME? HAVE THEY NO SENSE OF DECENCY?"
"For those people that still read The Failing New York Times and, despite the fact that Iran has been totally OBLITERATED, Militarily, and otherwise, you would think that Iran is actually winning or, at the very least, doing quite well — But that’s not true, and The New York Times knows that it’s FAKE NEWS!"
🔥🔥🔥
Enemy of the people!
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@NUCLRGOLF @TrackingRory Does that adjust for height and arm length?
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Nick Braun retweetledi

✈️🌺⛳️ #PREPARATION — Rory says he ‘doesn’t like’ the 3 tournaments leading up to The Masters
“I’d rather come up here… I did a couple of days where I dropped Poppy to school, flew up here, played, landed back home, and had dinner with Erica and Poppy.”
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Sam Altman has cultivated an image as the AI whisperer of our generation.
But his mask just got RIPPED OFF.
What's underneath should terrify anyone who believes in OpenAI at an $852 billion valuation...
Multiple OpenAI engineers revealed that Altman can barely code and routinely confuses basic machine learning concepts.
This isn't a hit piece from a rival. These are his OWN people.
A senior Microsoft executive (OpenAI's largest partner) went on record saying:
"I think there's a small but real chance he's eventually remembered as a Bernie Madoff- or Sam Bankman-Fried-level scammer."
That's from the company with a 27% stake.
Former OpenAI researcher Carroll Wainwright described the pattern:
"He sets up structures that, on paper, constrain him in the future. But then, when the future comes and it comes time to be constrained, he does away with whatever the structure was."
Insiders call it "Jedi mind tricks."
I call it something older: the con.
Now look at what's actually happening at OpenAI right now.
Jury trial begins April 27 in Oakland. Musk vs Altman.
Musk is seeking up to $134 billion in damages and wants Altman and Brockman removed from their positions.
The key piece of evidence? Brockman's own 2017 handwritten diary, surfaced in discovery:
"I cannot believe that we committed to non-profit if three months later we're doing b-corp then it was a lie."
A co-founder. In writing. In 2017. Using the word "lie."
The judge cited that entry directly when she ruled there was "ample evidence" for a jury.
Now the financial reality nobody wants to talk about:
OpenAI just raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation.
2025 revenue: ~$13 billion
2026 projected loss: $14 billion
Cumulative losses through 2028: $44 billion
Cash burn projected to hit $57 billion annually by 2027
Path to profitability: 2030, maybe
That's 65 times sales for a company losing more money than it earns. Traditional SaaS trades at 5-10x ARR.
To justify this valuation, OpenAI needs to hit $100 billion in annual revenue by 2029.
Nvidia did $130 billion in 2025 with a near-total monopoly on the largest hardware boom in human history.
OpenAI is supposed to match that in four years. Selling subscriptions.
And that's the BULL case.
The bear case? DeepSeek launched a 1 trillion parameter model priced at one-sixth the cost of US rivals. Chinese AI has erupted into a full price war. ChatGPT's web share collapsed from 86.7% to 64.5% in 12 months.
Models are commoditizing. Moats are evaporating. Compute costs are structural, not temporary.
And the man steering this $852 billion ship allegedly can't explain gradient descent to his own engineers.
I've seen guys like this many times. I watched it in 1999. I watched it in 2007.
The pattern is always the same:
A charismatic frontman. A "new paradigm" story. Valuations disconnected from cash flow. Insiders quietly cashing out while retail investors chase the narrative. Board structures designed to be "unwound" the moment constraints become inconvenient.
When Microsoft executives are whispering "Madoff" and co-founders are writing "it was a lie" in their diaries, you don't even need 45 years on Wall Street to know how this ends.
You just need to have been paying attention.
I've been bearish on the Mag 7 AI capex story for months. $380 billion spent in 2025 with CFO surveys showing "no change" in productivity. The earnings have accrued to the picks-and-shovels guys, not the dreamers.
OpenAI is the purest expression of this mania. And the jury selection on April 27 may be the moment the story finally cracks.
Caveat emptor.

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@wingoz No serious people are watching the pre-slop today. But when the tournament starts tomorrow, I hope the clowns go home.
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@wingoz We want Jom Nantz and competitive golf. Period, full stop.
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There's gotta be some kind of petition we can sign to make this stop
SportsCenter@SportsCenter
Jason Kelce is rocking a full caddie outfit for the Par 3 Contest 😅
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