Nick Sutcliffe retweetledi
Rest in Peace dear ‘Paddy’ - our last of the ‘Few’ who we honour alongside all his comrades at the Museum.
Our flag will fly at half mast for the next seven days to mark the passing of the great man.
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Nick Sutcliffe
1.8K posts
@PaulKGB BA spokesperson claimed: “The vast majority of customers were rebooked onto same-day alternative flights to get them to their destination as soon as possible.” How vast was that majority?!
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Heathrow-bound BA flight turns back as toxic fumes make passengers and crew sick standard.co.uk/news/london/lo…
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Westminster politics was so much better even in the late Noughties - when we still had real grown ups with decades of experience behind them. Seems a world away now…
William Hague@WilliamJHague
Just been sent this. Think he won that one.
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@GaynorHaliday 500 is a clever number because even that estimate would in aggregate be 15,000 farms with an uncertain future based on the average IHT event only being once every 30 years for each generation of a farming family. An annual number massively underplays it. #farm
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Just listening to news. Starmer asserts that 'only' 500 farms per year will be affected by the new IHT rules. That's 10 farms a WEEK or 2 every working day. #farm
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@GavinBarwell Likewise on 1st May 1997 (General Election Day) the Conservatives won back control of a swathe of County Councils
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The Conservatives gained 1,348 seats in the 1999 local elections and a further 594 in 2000. It didn't translate to gains at the 2001 General Election. Low turnout elections can mislead due to differential turnout; you need switchers at a General Election and that's much harder
Mario Creatura@MarioCreatura
Seven Conservative gains across the country, this soon after the General Election, is a huge achievement - and (whisper it) among the very earliest signs that we could be heading for a one-term Labour Government… Congrats to all the newly elected Conservative councillors!
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Nick Sutcliffe retweetledi
If you don't understand the incentives and consraints of the electoral system and political geography you are competing with, then you can't win. Squeezing Reform will achieve next to nothing if it puts off Con-Lab or Con-LD switchers, who count much more.
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Many in the Conservatives will ignore this reality…
James Kanagasooriam@JamesKanag
The Conservatives lost votes to everyone. 25% of the 2019 vote to Reform, 23% to the left. The latter count double. Losing votes to the left ensured election defeat. Bleeding so heavily to reform turned that defeat into a cataclysm.
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The whopping 10% error in the poll lead by most of the big well established opinion polling brands is quite something. The scale of this failure outstrips many other general election polling failures such as 2015.
Andy Lawton@ABLPoli
All the votes are now in. @VerianGroup were the most accurate pollster based on final call RMSE. @NorstatUKPolls and @Moreincommon_ come in 2nd and 3rd. Every pollster overestimated Labour and underestimated the Conservatives.
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@MarkieStuartie April 1992 seems like it was a different world?
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Robert Buckland on good form tonight on what the Conservative Party needs to do next.
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Getting ready to hear the 10 pm exit poll sooner on FM radio than the time delayed digital television signal.
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This really sums up the poorest general election campaign I can ever recall - "Tom Newton Dunn: Why I'm going to spoil my ballot at this election" standard.co.uk/comment/spoil-…
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One week in it’s still looking like it’s all over: economist.com/britain/2024/0…
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Personally, I'm looking forward to what might be the dullest and most uneventful general election campaign & outcome since 2005. I'm sure there will be some amusement along the way but it will be good if we can actually get through one which is just plain old predictable #GE2024
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Tonight's ES editorial is on the money: "The fundamental truth is this: British households are set to end a parliament poorer than at the start for the first time since the Second World War" The UK economy is in recession (and becoming a bit more European) standard.co.uk/comment/uk-eco…
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