Nicolas
536 posts

Nicolas
@nico76ar
Ideas y perspectivas; ni personas, ni recomendaciones. I look at ideas, neither people nor recommendations.
Katılım Haziran 2011
466 Takip Edilen54 Takipçiler


¡ALERTA MÁXIMA!
El Pentágono reclutaría a General Motors y Ford para la guerra.
Funcionarios del Departamento de Defensa han contactado directamente a General Motors y Ford para reconvertir sus fábricas y producir armas, tanques y suministros militares a gran escala, según The Wall Street Journal.

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@nico76ar Son preguntas sobre las cuales, lamentablemente, no tengo respuestas definitivas. Hasta ahí llegué. Abz
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@damianpierri cortaste el hilo cuando llegaste a lo más importante... claro que llegar a las preguntas es el primer paso, pero es como pedir la comida en un restaurante y que te digan que la cocina cerró, jaja
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@KobeissiLetter almost every panic that was not followed by a recession was a buying opportunity, I believe
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History suggests oil shocks are buying opportunties:
Over the last 40 years, the S&P 500's 12-month return following a 2-day oil spike of +20% has been +24%.
In 6 out of 7 instances since 1986, the S&P 500 has been higher 1 year after such an oil spike.
The strongest recovery was +54% following the 2020 pandemic crash, driven by a massive stimulus response from central banks and governments.
The only negative outcome was -11% during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Put differently, every oil shock over the last 40 years that did not lead to a prolonged recession was followed by a strong rally.
Oil shocks are historically brief and provide long-term buying opportunities.

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@Alejandro_XBT @grok ¿qué muestra este gráfico y a qué conclusión llegás?
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Deutsche Bank's views on the discount in SaaS stocks.
1. Software Sector Over-Discounted on AI: Stocks down over 20% YTD with 21% multiple compression; DB identifies $CLBT, $CRM, $INTU, $NOW as compelling Buys using GenAI resilience scorecard and valuation metrics (GAAP EPS/FCF, SBC multiples).
2. Barriers to Exit Drive Disruption Risk: Primary factor determining resilience; lower scores (retention rates, data moats, ecosystem strength) signal higher AI disruption vulnerability, overriding product innovation focus.

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The main reason crypto hasn’t gone anywhere is that its momentum engine was structurally altered by the introduction and scaling of options markets.
Bitcoin stopped behaving like a pure momentum asset and started behaving like a financialized one.
What changed wasn’t demand. What changed was market structure.
Before options, price discovery was driven primarily by spot buying and perpetual futures. Large inflows created reflexive upside: price went up, shorts got liquidated, momentum compounded, and you got vertical “God candles.”
Once a deep options market developed, that reflexivity was absorbed.
Market makers who sell calls hedge dynamically. When price rises, they sell spot or futures to stay delta-neutral. That hedging flow mechanically dampens upside momentum. The more calls that are sold, the more supply appears into strength.
At the same time, long-term holders discovered yield.
Instead of simply holding BTC and waiting for a moonshot, institutions and large holders began selling covered calls to generate income. This created a structural “call overhang,” especially at psychological strike levels. As price approaches those strikes, gamma hedging flows and call-related supply create a ceiling effect.
Bitcoin transitioned from a convex speculation asset into something closer to a yield-bearing instrument.
The acceleration of IBIT options made this transformation explicit.
The key structural changes were:
• Initial approval (late 2024): 25,000 contract position limit
• First expansion (mid 2025): 250,000 contracts
– 10x increase. Enabled meaningful covered call programs and volatility-selling strategies to scale.
• Super-size proposal (late 2025): 1,000,000 contracts
– Institutional parity with major ETF options. Large funds could now run systematic yield-harvesting at size.
• Early 2026 normalization: Removal of special caps
– Bitcoin ETF options treated like standard commodity ETFs. Full integration into traditional derivatives infrastructure.
Each increase expanded the capacity for:
1. Call selling
2. Basis trades (long spot / short futures)
Volatility harvesting
3.Structured yield products
The result is a structurally different asset.
Price is no longer just a function of conviction. It is a function of gamma positioning, volatility supply, and institutional hedging flows.
Momentum hasn’t disappeared, it has been redirected into yield.
Bitcoin itself has entered its institutional phase. Yield and volatility management now suppress the explosive reflexivity that once defined it.
Crypto didn’t die.
It got financialized and the last weeks showed what the volatility trading could do to the underlying asset by breaking.

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@KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeRetail @DougKass I guess you expect a chg in fundamentals dynamics (sales decelerating, margins compressing, ROIC falling, etc., while multiples -not a trigger- are historically high), or it is the exposure you are looking for from a macro perspective.
Just taking notes here.
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Breaking down the disaster that was $NKE and telling you to buy $SHOO instead! @HedgeyeRetail @DougKass
HedgeyeTV@HedgeyeTV
Get hedge fund-quality research you won't find anywhere else. Tune into our morning meeting with 40+ analysts hosted by @KeithMcCullough THE CALL 📞 LIVE @ 7:45AM ET 12/19/2025 Join us info.hedgeye.com/tcny
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@william_R2Rclub @Maverick_Equity meh, these guruguys are extrapolating current conditions
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S&P 500 forecasts via Wall Street strategists:
👉 outlook for 2026 as another good year
Fund managers survey via BofA similar vibes:
👉 57% target 2026 above 7,000 (currently at 6,800)
Risks ranking for another 2026 good year:
👉 Higher inflation / higher interest rates, AI CAPEX slowing down, unemployment > 5%



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@GoogleAI @OfficialLoganK @Google @sundarpichai @grok sum @sundarpichai comments, focusing on those more relevant to understand Google's current stance and dynamics as a company.
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We’ve loved hearing all of your reactions to Gemini 3 and guesses on what’s next for Google AI. We know many of you are extremely curious so we brought in our top insider to shed some light:
Last week, @OfficialLoganK sat down with @Google and Alphabet CEO @sundarpichai to discuss Google’s AI momentum, what it’s actually like to ship state-of-the-art models, and the rise of vibe coding.
Chapters:
- Intro
- Shipping Gemini 3
- Google's decade-long investment in AI
- The full stack advantage
- Scaling up compute and capacity
- Sim-shipping Gemini across products
- Nano Banana Pro
- Monitoring launch day
- Future model roadmap
- Launch day rituals
- The Blue Micro Kitchen
- Future moonshots
- The rise of vibe coding
- What’s next
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@RealJGBanks Add GOOGL to CHIPS, PHYSICAL AI, and I guess to APPs too.
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THE COMPANIES ACTUALLY POWERING AI
ENERGY → $VST $CEG $UUUU
DATA CENTERS → $VRT $SMCI $IREN
CHIPS → $NVDA $AMD $AVGO
NETWORKING → $ANET $CSCO $ASTS
CLOUD/DATA → $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $PLTR
FOUNDATION MODELS → $META $GOOGL $MSFT
EDGE AI → $AAPL $QCOM $GFS
APPLICATIONS → $CRM $AFRM $HIMS $SOFI $DDOG
PHYSICAL AI → $TSLA $RR $SERV $ONDS $JOBY
This is the REAL AI stack — real revenue, real infrastructure, real adoption.
SAVE THIS LIST
❤️ FOR OTHERS

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@EconstratPB CasaSur está más cerca de los parques, y en zona algo más tranquila. De noche hay más movimiento cerca de los otros. Ambas zonas son en general lindas y bastante seguras (para una zona urbana de más de diez millones de personas).
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@EconstratPB No, pero si estás para un café o una cerveza mandame un DM.
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