John Lee

x.com/i/article/2058…

Let’s talk a bit about FuelCell. $FCEL I’ll give credit to people who actually put work in it like @daniel_koss And of course @ThematicTrader . But besides that, I’m seeing accounts giving 20x, 30x upside targets and comparing it to Bloom. So I decided to dive a little bit into the stock myself. And to be fair this story has so many holes. It was too long to do as an X thread, so I decided to make it a Substack article to really capture a more explanatory style. But let me give you a taste of some things I found. Number one. A lot of people call FuelCell’s carbon capture a moat the thing that differentiates (for one) it from $BE . What they forget is that FuelCell signed a JDA with ExxonMobil that caps third-party deployments at 250,000 tons of CO2 per year. And this contract has been extended five times in five years with zero expansion of that cap. It expires December 31, 2026. Management hasn’t shown any negotiation strength here. And Exxon has no incentive to loosen the constraint. When FuelCell gained commercial traction at Rotterdam, Exxon raised engineering rates by 15%. That’s the pattern you see across the amendments. Then I see @ThematicTrader . He puts a lot of work in, and I fully respect that. And you can’t have everything right the first time. But who is considered to be doing the best DD on this stock by accounts like @CKCapitalxx and @babyfolio He says that FuelCell has been working to commercialize solid oxide fuel cells for 5+ years now. Same tech as BE. And they mentioned it multiple times as a growth lever in their 10-Ks. That’s right. Management plays it really smart. In the 10-Q filed March 9, they stated in Item 7 of the liquidity section: “successfully advance the commercialization of its solid oxide and carbon capture platforms through partnerships with third parties.” They need a partner. That’s okay. But how did they get to the point that they need a partner? Well, you have to dig down a little bit. In the other filings in November 2024, there was the first restructuring. In June 2025, the second restructuring. So in June 2025, FuelCell announces , and I quote “the cessation of the majority of development efforts with respect to our solid oxide technology.” End of project by FuelCell. Then on the September 9 filing in 2025, they take a $64.5 million impairment. And this is written out by management as and I quote “prior investments in solid oxide technology, related goodwill and in-process research and development, intangible assets, property, plant, and equipment, and solid oxide inventory.” Breakdown: $42 million property, plant, and equipment. $9 million inventory. $9.3 million in-process research and development. $4.1 million in goodwill So management retired that project. And they are looking for a partner now in their current language. If you didn’t read the earlier filings, you think management is still on track and has been for the past decade for a solid oxide plan. Reality is they stopped funding it, and they’re looking now for a partner to set it up again. You could ask yourself the question. If the tailwind is so strong and you look at the October $5 billion deal between Bloom and Brookfield why haven’t they found a partner yet? In these seven months. These and many more I will cover in my Substack. I don’t have time to finish it tonight, but I will finish it tomorrow. We will zoom in. We talk production. We talk gross margins. We talk why the T5 deal could be just location-bound, in terms of the permit zone they’re in. We talk about T5 as a partnership with Brookfield, who invested in Bloom, so follow-up projects are not certain at all. We talk scaling risks. We talk management track record. Etcetera, etcetera. There is a upside case to be made but the probability is multiple times smaller then being sketched. Would treat this as a highly speculative position maybe even a coin flip.