Nils HerloffPetersen

Far-right gains almost always come as a backlash to far-left overreach. This is no exception.

To be fair, for some, not all! On the surface, in cities and towns, and definitely for the white population (~20% in the early 70’s), yes. For >50%, especially out in the rural and tribal areas it was still 3rd world. SA was a developing country. Now ´stagnated ´ is probably an even euphemistic term.

I’m so old I remember when South Africa was a 1st world country

@ConCaracal @elonmusk When group ideology and personal financial opportunity mate, the progeny is massive corruption.

@elonmusk Correct, and President Ramaphosa endorses and pushes these racist laws personally.

South Africa has extremely racist laws

@BarneySimon Would you dare to do that now, tonight? 😁

Spent many nights there... #FlashbackFriday

@Saadrehman1098 @GBX_Press FOS 🙄

@GBX_Press They thought they would be safe in Dubai, Their death has been destined there. what they plan and what Allah plans. indeed he(Allah) is the best planner

🚨 BREAKING ​Iran targeted Ukrainian soldiers who were sent to Dubai to support Israel and the US. ​21 Ukrainian specialist soldiers were killed.

Those laws were repealed in 1986, thankfully! That was 40 years ago. Today people are increasingly restricted in their movement in their country and even their own neighbourhoods because of collapsed infrastructure, dissipating public safety, increasing poverty. Unfortunately there is a general acceptance and no real countermovement to these conditions.

I remember my youth when I turned 16, still at school, I had to carry this Dompass 24 hours a day, restricting my movements in my country.

Here we go. Right on time. 2% of all university students in Russia will be press-ganged into the military. There are 8 million post-secondary students in Russia. 2% is 160,000 bodies that will be thrown into the meat grinder. Roughly 3x total active duty troops of Baltic states.

A humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson region. A Russian war crime on a massive scale. Those poor people... Russia is effectively keeping the city under blockade: without fuel, electricity, medicine, and food. About 2,000 people currently remain in the city, including fifty children. "There is no food supply or evacuation. People are faced with a terrible choice: to wait for death by starvation or to walk miles along mined roads in search of a piece of bread, at the risk of shelling," head of Kherson military administration said in an interview with Meidas Defense. Civilians have to walk 50 kilometers to Skadovsk, the regional center, to get provisions, apply for social assistance, receive pensions, etc., because none of these services is available in Oleshky. Getting in and out of the city by vehicle is next to impossible. All transport moving along the road, referred to as "The Road of Death," is targeted by drones and shelling. Even if supplies are delivered, they rarely reach people, as Russian soldiers take up to 80% of deliveries and also steal from locals. The situation is further complicated by the collapse of the water supply. The last time Russia installed water tanks was in 2024. Now, only those living in private houses can access well water, which is not tested for safety, while others rely on melted snow during the winter. Due to the collapse of food and medical access, two or three deaths are reported daily, according to Tetiana Hasanenko, head of the Oleshky city military administration. The hospital is treating only Russian military personnel, she says. The causes of death include malnutrition, heart attacks, traumatic amputations, blood loss, and hypothermia amid a severe winter and a prolonged heating crisis. According to Hasanenko, there are currently 318 identified victims, including 246 wounded and 72 dead. In many cases, identification is not possible. 📷: 34th Marine Brigade, Igrik Kherson/Facebook

"The espionage accusations surfaced just as the journalist, who has reported extensively on alleged links between Hungarian officials and Moscow, exposed unprecedented Russian influence operations aimed at boosting Orban’s re-election." article19.org/resources/hung…

ZELENSKYY to BBC: We went through difficult relations with Iran. We did nothing to them. They shot down our plane, killed our passengers and crew, didn’t admit it, and didn’t let experts in. Then the full-scale war started. They handed Shahed drones to Russians to kill our civilians. I asked them to stop. They promised there would be only one batch. They lied and kept supplying weapons. That’s why I consider them accomplices of Russia.

@Bert_VdA That’s what you get when you’re beholden to books written ~2000 years ago. Happens more often than you would think 😢

Terrorist-like dangerous lunatics.

@AkshatRathi @nickhedley Nuclear power baby!

One month in to the war, some people are ready to call it. This energy shock will accelerate the world to a cleaner, more electrified future. “Electrification will be seen as the shock absorber.” nytimes.com/2026/04/01/opi…

Waarschijnlijk de grootste nederlaag uit mijn politiek bestaan. De Vlaamse partijen Groen, N-VA, CD&V en Vooruit hebben zonet een nieuwe belasting op verwarming, energie en autorijden van 650 euro (!) per huishouden, per jaar goedgekeurd. Dat is het ETS2-systeem. We hadden een keuze vandaag deze Europese klimaatwaanzin NIET om te zetten in Vlaanderen. Dat werd ook beloofd door oa. @valerievanpeel en @MDiependaele. Toch kozen zij en de klassieke partijen er weer maar eens voor het toch WEL te doen. Niet te vatten. Aardgas plus 16 procent. Stookolie plus 21 procent. Diesel en benzine plus 10 procent. De TV-camera's waren natuurlijk al lang weg voor het debat en de stemming. Je gaat hier bijna niets over lezen. Wel zal de komende weken weer vrolijk verteld worden in de media dat de hoge energieprijzen "de schuld zijn van Trump". Mensen zijn niet dom. Mensen worden hier vooral heel kwaad van. Geef hen eens ongelijk.

@dieworkwear 🤣🤣🤣

@Mufasa0062 Ai ai Gordonsbaai! ❤️

Good Morning all, enjoy a wonderful Thursday.

I follow your analysis, but have some nuance on 1) When insurance reaches 10% of the ship’s value, cynical me thinks shipowners are instead paying 2-5% direct to the IRGC to pass. 2) I’m certain ~50% of ships now transit through the area with AIS switched off to reduce their targeting signature. @BartGonnissen what’s your take on this?

I've stopped reading Gulf war headlines. Here's what I track instead. We run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India's crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes — this crisis is personal. But the information environment right now is garbage. Trump says the war ends tomorrow. Iran says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can't build a portfolio view on this. So I've narrowed it down to 4 signals. These are priced by people with real money on the line. They don't lie. 1. Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz This is the single best signal. Lloyd's underwriters have billions at stake on every pricing call. Before the war, insuring a tanker through Hormuz cost 0.25% of the ship's value. Today it's 3.5–10% — and almost nobody is buying. A $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M. When this drops below 2%, the people with the most to lose are telling you it's getting safer. No press conference can replicate that. 2. How many ships are actually crossing Every ship carries a GPS tracker (AIS). You can count exactly how many cross Hormuz each day. Before: 100+. Now: 8. That's a 92% collapse. You can't spin a ship being somewhere it isn't. Iran is letting some Chinese and Indian ships through, but it's a trickle. When this number crosses 30–40, trade is resuming. You can track this free on the WTO Hormuz Trade Tracker. 3. Paper oil vs real oil This one most people miss entirely. Brent crude (the headline price) is at $112. But Dubai physical — what Asian buyers actually pay for delivered oil — is at $126. That's a $14 gap. It exists because Trump's comments keep pushing paper prices down. Traders call it jawboning. But the refiners buying cargo aren't getting any discount. If you're looking at Brent to assess India's oil bill, you're looking at the wrong number. 4. The mid-April cliff Multiple emergency measures expire around the same time. The 400 million barrel SPR release runs dry ~April 15. The US waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Formosa Plastics has declared force majeure from April 1. Right now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at ~5 mb/d. Without them, BCA Research estimates it doubles to 10 mb/d — the largest crude disruption ever. If Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, we're in uncharted territory. Bottom line: track the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise.

@BarneySimon ANC-connected tenderpreneur’s driveway? 😁

@VerstyukIvan They still won’t be any less dead when @414magyarbirds peck them 😬

Chechnya's flag is seen in the middle of this photo. Russian National Guard combatants are having the "namaz|" - an Islamic prayer conducted at pre-set periods of time. Kremlin provides Chechen soldiers and officers with an opportunity to do so in combat areas on time. OSINT.

seeing a lot of "higher gas prices won't affect me because I don't drive very much" and unfortunately it is my sad duty to inform you that your food does not teleport to the grocery store

@McFaul Was, past tense 😉

Re-upping from 10 years ago: Mr. Trump, NATO is an alliance, not a protection racket wapo.st/4tonuQx