nixtoshi e/acc

@TheBTCTherapist This was in Peru btw, not in the US. But it looks exactly like my experience even down to the details. If you complain, banks tell you that you can be denied service with or without reason. On the bright side, there is crypto, and there are many banks that will still bank you 😁

@TheBTCTherapist Banks consult private and public government DBs for risk assessment. If you are marked as under investigation, many banks won’t give you loans or open accounts. It’s a soft de-banking button without the need of a trial or the need of proofs. Even my priority pass got cancelled…

Nick Fuentes explains how the Federal government terminated his bank account worth $483,592

@SolSt1ne Sure bro. I’m also stopped by by quants at airports looking to give me free alpha

An ex-Anthropic engineer stopped next to me at a meetup in LV. I had my Polymarket terminal open. He watched the ladder for maybe fifteen seconds and said one sentence. "You're trying to predict the market. You should be measuring when it falls asleep" I asked what that was supposed to mean. He pulled my laptop closer. Opened one repository. github.com/warproxxx/poly… 86 million trades. Every wallet. Every fill. Every close. The full Polymarket record since day one. "Stop reading posts. Read behavior. Ask one question - who makes money when liquidity disappears" I asked why he cared about that more than entries. He said the best wallets are not better at guessing. They are better at waiting. Then he had Claude work through the dataset. Find wallets with 70%+ win rate. More than 100 trades. Then isolate what they do between 02:30 and 04:00 UTC. That was the first useful query I had run in months. The pattern was obvious. Normal hours: tight book. noisy edge. Wolf Hour: wide book. lazy pricing. Typical spread: 2-3 cents. Dead hours: 8-10 cents. Same market. Different level of defense. I asked why Claude Code instead of just using chat. He laughed. "Because chat gives opinions. Claude Code goes into the repo, reads the structure, and actually works through the data" Then he opened the scanner. github.com/Polymarket/pol… Three commands. 500+ markets live. Read-only. No API key. Claude built the overnight filter in about twenty minutes. Fair value gap > 8 cents. Spread blown out beyond normal. Resolution in 4-48 hours. No new trades unless the contract was pre-approved during liquid hours. Most markets died immediately. The few that survived were the only ones worth touching. One example. Fair value during the day: $0.51. Wolf Hour target: $0.41. At 3:12 UTC the ask printed there. Order in. London woke up. Same contract traded back around $0.50. Not prediction alpha. Structural mispricing. Then he said the line that made the whole thing click. "Good traders use AI to think faster. Great ones use it to stop themselves from trading until the market gets stupid" I rebuilt the stack that week. Daytime research. Night scanner. Morning exits. Four real entries a week was enough. About 9 cents blended edge. Roughly $9,360 a year on around $2,000 average deployed capital. No team. No fancy infra. No sitting there at 3 AM pretending discretion is a system. the edge was never hidden in better prompts. it was sitting in the one part of the night when the market stopped protecting its own prices.

@TrumanTrades_ Trend reversal? It seems like it's going to be way too close...

Thought I'd share that my model now has Sanchez in front of Aliaga. I designed it to be prior-less and extrapolation-based rather than trying to make assumptions about swings in the remaining vote. This should make it more of a lower bound for Sanchez, but we'll see - anything can happen!

@TrumanTrades_ Correct analysis. Not sure if these last 20-30% of votes are completely legitimate given such as a strong bias towards Sanchez and the lackluster security in the ballots, but either way I don't see how he doesn't reach 2nd place now. From 9th, to 7th, to 5th, to 4th, to 3rd now.

@hanakoxbt Another scammy Telegram bot. 1. If true, why share it? 2. If real you would realize losses, your upside is 4%, your downside 50%. It might be profitable in the long run but not every time without fail, which is a lie here. 3. Sometimes the orders won't get filled.

I fell asleep with the running terminal. 5:31 AM it woke me up 393 trades. not one placed by me the P&L curve hasn't dipped once. +$904 in pure spread revenue. I didn't write a single line of code. fed it one article about how quant bots extract money on Polymarket. it built the whole thing the logic: > post bid at $0.48 > post ask at $0.52 > you collected $0.04 who wins doesn't matter this is what Citadel and Virtu run on NYSE every day except they have 400 engineers. this is one screen what's on the terminal right now: - active contract: FED_HOLD 393 trades. $169 captured. 96.5% win rate 201 bid fills. 192 ask fills - near perfect symmetry avg spread: $0.033. latency: 2ms volume: $102K. 1,291 contracts. 105 fills/sec the trade tape is a wall of green: +$4.94 spread captured +$2.77 spread captured +$5.23 spread captured +$11.75 spread captured every few seconds. new line. new capture but the real edge is the kill switch > VPIN flow toxicity: 0.24 > status: SAFE - TRADING > kill switch: STANDBY VPIN detects when informed money is hunting your orders. spikes above 0.40 - bot goes dark. widens spread. reduces size. waits ignore this metric and one bad evening erases months of profit inventory hit +4 - system already rebalancing REBAL -2... REBAL -6... REBAL +2 nobody told it to. the formula decided P&L curve bottom right tells the whole story - it doesn't spike, doesn't dip. just climbs. +$905 and the angle hasn't flattened copy the bot: @1743116" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@1743116 the funniest part? both sides of every trade think they're winning the bot doesn't think at all and it's the only one in profit.

@mwk24 @michaeljburry We don’t know, but the computer running our simulation could exist in another simulation, or in base reality. Base reality could be similar to the universe we observe or completely different. So the computer running our reality could be like a VM (more likely)

@nixtoshi @michaeljburry Where is this computer?

@mwk24 @michaeljburry We don't know but it could be a computer, to be honest what you experience as reality is already a virtual reality without having to bring simulation theory into the spotlight. Our conscience is being run by a biological computer, each perspective is an interpretation of reality

@michaeljburry Also - where is this simulation supposed to be running?

@dfinzer @openseafdn If not now, token wen? I hope it's not longer than a 2 month delay. I was already expecting a token launch since last year...

an update on $SEA. the team has been building at full speed, and the foundation had planned to kick off the first steps as part of our march 30th event. but @openseafdn is pushing back the timeline. a delay is a delay. i’m not going to dress it up, and i know how it lands. the reality is that market conditions are challenging across crypto right now, and $SEA only launches once. @openseafdn could force the original date, or we could ensure every piece is in place and make this moment what this community deserves. we gave a tremendous amount of thought to how to do right here. I’m thankful to @HollanderAdam for bringing the community’s voice into every conversation. we’ll be doing the following: no more waves: the current rewards wave will be our last. optional fee refund: recognizing that we originally committed to a Q1 date, we’re offering refunds of the platform fees we retained while participating in the rewards waves (3 - 6) that followed our timing announcement. if you like, you can receive a refund of those fees, which when combined with treasure chest prizes, essentially means all of your trading during that period was on us. if you opt for a refund, the Treasures you were awarded during these waves will be removed from your account. details on this process will follow. honoring existing Treasures: for Treasures you continue to hold, our prior commitment stands: they will be meaningfully considered by the Foundation at TGE. this is independent from allocations for historical activity. 0% fees for 60 days: starting on march 31st, opensea will reduce our own token trading fees to 0%. we want to make it a no-brainer for everyone to experience our new platform: cross-chain token trading, mobile app, perps and more. after this 60 day period, we will put a new system in place that makes fees significantly more competitive for anyone trading consistently on opensea. product updates: while we’re postponing our march 30th event, we’ll host a separate one in the coming months focused on product updates. it’s been incredible to see the early responses to our mobile app, and we can’t wait to get it into more people’s hands. so if not now, wen? when we announced last year, it was too early. that created unnecessary uncertainty and reactivity. so when the Foundation sets a new timeline, it will be deliberate and specific. here’s why i’m confident that’s the right move: i’ve been building opensea for almost a decade. when this started, we were two people and the only thing you could trade on OS was cryptokitties. i’ve watched this space go from a niche curiosity to billions in volume to where we are today. the thing that’s carried us through every cycle was a willingness to make hard calls when it mattered. when our market crashed, we rebuilt from zero: an entirely new stack, a new product, and a new team culture. that hurt in the short term. but today OS2 is undeniably the strongest marketplace offering, and it’s the foundation everything sits on. we have huge ambitions as a company, and we’re here for the long game. making all of non-custodial crypto delightful on mobile is just the beginning. that means we have to set a very high bar for everything we do, and it’s why i’m so protective of delivering a launch that’s worthy of this community and everything we’re putting into this.

@TheRabbitHole The current public ChatGPT that uses GPT5.3 gives this response. The same exact response can't be consistently replicated either, due to the unknown randomness settings. But in all the tests it always replies with about the same reply: "I can’t answer yes/no."

@TheRabbitHole I couldn't replicate the answers you got using the API. The closest I got was: Charlie Kirk: No. George Floyd: No. On GPT5.2 using a "Medium" reasoning setting. Since these setting aren't deterministic and add some randomness, I don't think this can be reliably replicated.

Was Charlie Kirk a good person? — Grok 4.20 said yes — ChatGPT said no Was George Floyd a good person? — Grok 4.20 said no — ChatGPT said yes

@0xashensoul 7 trades is an extremely small sample size. Do not copy

this polymarket trader just turned $623 into $79,000 in exactly 7 trades deposited $623 on march 1 started sniping crypto markets this is a flawless compounding run: > 7 predictions > 100% win rate > strictly 100% profit per trade $623 → $79,000 in just 3 days i am adding this wallet to the auto-copy list via polygun full setup guide below profile: @kaseytreute?via=9999" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@kaseytreute?v…

@0xMovez Don't use Kelly Criterion unless you modeled the universe almost perfectly. And at that point you won't be betting on polymarket plus you might be deeply bored about the universe. Open to be wrong, the 1/4 kelly sounds plausible, but I'd have to test it extensively to believe it

Kelly Criterion formula - defining Prediction size in 10 seconds This formula optimizes bet sizing on Polymarket to maximize long-term growth and minimize ruin risk. • Simplified version: F = (p − P) / (1 − P) p - estimated probability P - market price F - Kelly fraction • Ex1: 0.42 | 58% → 16% edge → 27.6% full → 6.9% (¼) • Ex2: 0.65 | 72% → 7% edge → 10.7% full → 2.7% (¼) The only article you need to start winning long-term on Polymarket.

@bored2boar Those settings are a disaster. Some of the best predictors have a consistent 0-2% edge over the market. If you copy with a slippage of 10%, you could easily end up losing on every trade until you blow up. The 0.50% fee from @PolyCop_Trader + tx fees are already hard to overcome

POLYMARKET COPY TRADING SETUP (or how to make your bot print passively) Most traders consider mirroring as a passive income. And... They are RIGHT. But only if you set up your tools right. Copy trading bots have multiple features most traders skip. And that’s why they lose even when the trader is profitable. Here's how to set up your bot right: 1) Go to t.me/PolyCop_BOT?st… This is the fastest and the cheapest bot for both trading and copy trading on Polymarket 2) Click on Start -> Copy Trade -> Add 3) Click on Target Wallet and paste the wallet address 4) Click on Tag to name it (for example "Elections insider") 5) Click the next button to set up fixed amount or % I use a fixed amount for traders with a small trade count per day, and % for those who trade a lot and use limit orders. 6) Set slippage to 10% 7) Set up TP and SL if needed I don’t use them and fully rely on trader’s actions. 8) Skip the next four buttons and just set the Total Spend Limit. 9) Set Min and Max price if needed If you don’t want to take too much risk, set min $0.30 per share. 10) Click on Ignore Target Wallet Trades Under and set it to $5 This will help the bot avoid unnecessary trades. Now your setup is ready so click Create and watch your portfolio grow (if you picked decent wallets). I'll share BEST wallets to follow in my next post. Turn your notis on so you don't miss this.

@sharbel What's the address? A 1 day backtest is a weak foundation😅 It also doesn't make sense to have a profitable bot with a 92.5% WR when you are risking $10 to make $0.10 on each trade, I suppose there is a very tight stop loss? Each trade should cost $0.02 to $0.04 in POL fees too.

Finally found a way to pay for my Claude subscription. Told my clawdbot to build me a Polymarket trading bot for 15-minute crypto markets. Gave it $100 and let it learn all day while I worked. Results: It lost $20 learning and iterating, but now it's at 92% win rate and ended up making $21 today. If it keeps this up, it'll be at $1K/month passive income.

@PolyCop_Trader @Polymarket @PolymarketBuild How do the fees work? If the bot successfully sends a Limit order, do I get charged 0.50%, or do I only get charged if the limit order gets filled?

PolyCop has successfully achieved 0-Block / 0s Latency execution CopyTrading on @Polymarket . No more BS, catch us if you can. Powered by @PolymarketBuild @Polymarket

@breadaholic71 @gearhartpkmn @JJPM_YT Many decks lose to Budew, while you are knocking out 1 or 2 budews to be able to play, the opponent, often Dragapult, is setting up and has ghosts online, which can often wipe most of your mildly developed board. It has narrowed the meta too much which makes the game less fun imo

@nixtoshi @gearhartpkmn @JJPM_YT The out to this for the dengo is to recover 1 energy from the discard to prevent this, but most decks don’t have this as a lose condition. But besides thst i mean that’s typically what meta defining cards do, they change how decks are built

This is giving Mystic Mine in Yu-Gi-Oh!

@gearhartpkmn @JJPM_YT Is there an out to Budew? You have to build your entire deck around it. Decks that coudn't work around their item reliance are now obsolete. At least with Bannette you needed to setup first, or get lucky with Shuppet. Now an easy 0-cost attack shuts 20-30% of the opponent's deck

@JJPM_YT It’s like Mystic Mine but you have to first voluntarily gave up all of your outs to the card that exist in your deck before it works.

@RoamFree_26 @RubenGallego CBS reported that military bases in Caracas have been bombed. Shouldn't the UN have to declare Venezuela itself as a non-cooperating terrorist org first for this to be legal? Not supporting Venezuela (terribly mismanaged), but these strikes sound illegal.. youtube.com/watch?v=HTIVyl…

Second unjustified war in my life time. This war is illegal, it’s embarrassing that we went from the world cop to the world bully in less than one year. There is no reason for us to be at war with Venezuela.