Nkblitz

@hkuppy You letting you biases get the better of you

So these GCC countries are taking missile salvos b/c of us, and now he wants them to pay for the privilege??

@RomanPuglise You are missing the entire point of the downsides of giving your kids and grandkids money too early..

Most high earners are using 529s wrong. Not because they picked the wrong state plan. Because they're treating a powerful wealth transfer tool like a savings account. Here's what you're probably missing👇

@XFreeze Seems fabricated @endless_frank ?

NTT Docomo joined Starlink Direct to Cell in Japan, and millions of Japanese users immediately flocked to the carrier’s satellite service More than 5 million users connected in just over two months after launch No special satellite phone or additional hardware. Just normal smartphones connecting directly to Starlink satellites when cellular coverage disappears This shows how powerful Starlink Direct to Cell is for both mobile users and carriers Starlink is literally driving millions of users toward carrier services by giving them coverage traditional cell towers cannot provide Starlink is making mobile networks more valuable than ever

@ReadFuturist @JsonBasedman Really - X is full of amazing takes! Who are they going to trust more ?

@JsonBasedman The funny part is both of these companies can be considered incumbents. They don't do anything new particularly well and they have no more besides software monopolies and the right connections. No mature business or enterprise is going to trust either of these entities.

Palantir: We have this software called Foundry, hope you like it Microsoft: *releases a product called Foundry* Alex Karp: You need to maintain the sovereignty of your business. Don't give up your alpha by giving away your data, you must own the weights of your business Satya:

⚡️ Satya Nadella published an essay this week warning that AI vendors quietly harvest their customers' knowledge. He is right about the mechanism. He is also not writing it to protect you. Read closely and the essay is a property claim on the most valuable asset of the next decade: distilled human judgment. His mechanism first, because most people have not seen it stated. When a company uses AI, it pays twice: once with money, once with the knowledge it must reveal to make the model useful. And the most valuable revelation is corrections. Every time your best people fix the model's mistakes, they transfer a piece of judgment into a system that never forgets. The cloud era stored your files. This era distills your expertise. Nadella's proposal: a hard "trust boundary" so each firm's corrections, evals, and learning compound inside its own walls instead of flowing to the model vendor. Now notice what the boundary does and does not stop. The extraction of human judgment continues at full rate either way. Employees still teach the loop with every fix. The boundary only changes which balance sheet capitalizes the knowledge: the AI lab's or the employer's. The worker whose corrections feed the machine appears nowhere in the property claim. There is a historical name for this maneuver. In the first enclosure movement, England's landowners converted common land, which everyone used and no one owned, into private title. Nadella's essay does the same to tacit human skill, the thing that lived in professions and walked out the door every night. Fence it, title it, book it as a corporate asset called a learning loop. His fight with the AI labs is a fight between lords over where the fence sits. The labs trained on the public internet for free, then banned anyone from distilling their models. Nadella demands the fence drop one level, to the enterprise, and no further. Nobody in this dispute proposes that learning flow back to the people it is distilled from. Why Microsoft argues this now is straightforward: its grip on OpenAI has loosened, the frontier labs are becoming competitors, and if models become commodities while value settles in the customer's data and loop, Microsoft owns the ground where all of it runs. Commoditize the layer you lost, monetize the layer you hold. The essay's five principles are Azure's roadmap dressed as customer liberation. But the forecast inside it is bigger than Microsoft. If Nadella wins, every firm becomes a sealed loop compounding its private stock of distilled judgment, and hiring shifts from buying knowledge to buying correction-labor to feed the loop. If he loses, the same absorption converges into three or four planetary loops owned by the frontier labs. A million small enclosures or one giant one. Grim as it sounds, the million is the branch where workers keep leverage: a million loops means a million bidders for human judgment. One loop is a monopsony on the last thing people have to sell. The tell that Nadella already sees this world: midway through the essay he writes "human capital and token capital" side by side, unremarked, as if the term were standard. It is not. He coined a new factor of production in a subordinate clause. When the CEO of the second-largest company on earth starts naming the thing that compounds instead of labor, the succession is already on his internal map. The essay is not a warning about that succession. It is a bid for the deed.

@GavinSBaker @elonmusk Exactly why $msft wins eventually

The mega bull case for AI infrastructure would be *if* market share shifted away from certain frontier labs with 90%+ inference margins toward cheaper models, whether open-source or closed. It would increase the ROI on AI spend for end customers by increasing intelligence per dollar, which would drive incremental token demand. Margin dollars would effectively get redistributed from the frontier labs to AI infrastructure providers. The infra winners would be those with the lowest per token cost and the winners at the model layer would be those with the highest token efficiency. There are many reasons Jensen is so focused on open source, but this is likely the most important one as I think he is probably less worried about a monopsony these days. Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at the infra layer all else equal. With SpaceX and Meta being vertically integrated and possessing the #3 and #4 models respectively it is more possible than ever. Note that Grok 4.5 is ahead of Fable for some useful tasks at a much lower cost, so ranking them #3 is conservative. This is not happening yet. Cheap, mostly open source tokens are likely the majority of volume today but the majority of economic value is still accruing to the most intelligent models. Might change though. We will see.

@SamIsNotOff @Heminator Yup, a service operated by unicorns and fairies

@nkblitz @Heminator It’s a service, like the Post Office or roads.

The obvious reason we haven’t invested in this is that there’s a widely available third option that costs about $40 worth of gas.

@SamIsNotOff @Heminator You surely know that all public transportation (with minor exceptions ) loses money, so we agree that if we love our country we don’t want to throw money away

@nkblitz @Heminator I am an American who wants America to be better. That’s loving your country, not settling for mediocrity (or worse).

@SamIsNotOff @Heminator No one if forcing you to live in America

@Heminator Gas isn’t the only expense. Loan payments, insurance, maintenance, and parking make it way more expensive. And that’s just the financial downsides. Cars are a depreciating liability that most people only use because they are forced to.

@endless_frank @Reformed_Trader Some companies get rewarded with high valuations and some with low. Maybe ASTS will always live in SPCX shadow and the premium price may never emerge - biz fundamentals notwithstanding

It’s really unfathomable and a signal that markets aren’t free anymore. Really getting annoyed and close to starting to contact the most expensive law firms in NYC to start prosecuting the exchanges and market makers. I’m not playing games anymore. I hate to sound like a liberal but this is oligarch shit now with how badly someone is out there suppressing $ASTS and other names while $SPCX can gain hundreds of billions in market cap while not a whole lot is changing.

$ASTS imagine looking at this chart with all these milestones and thinking all this is "priced in" at a $28.5B valuation by going nowhere for 9 months. Not to mention the rumblings of TMobile and Grain partnering to some capacity with ASTS in coming months, pushing them into a near monopoly in the most valuable mobile market in the world. Meanwhile, Starlink added ~$500B to $SPCX market cap (17.5 ASTSs) from December 2025 when it was still private to today, now implicitly making up $1T of SPCX's $2T valuation (and that's probably being conservative). Keep in mind that analysts and executives have cited the mobile market as a large bulk of the growth outlook for Starlink, even expecting the mobile market to exceed their fixed broadband market by subscriber.

@realroseceline $asts is better, no?

At $150, I said it was worth around $50 per share. At $80, it’s still worth around $50 per share. Prices moves but value doesn’t. At roughly $50 per share, you’re paying approximately $30 billion for $RKLB. Imho, that’s a reasonable price to pay for the economics I expect the business to produce over the next several years. You may disagree and conclude it’s worth more, and that’s perfectly reasonable. Valuation is an art, not a science. Will it ever trade at my estimate of fair value? I have no idea, and neither does anyone else. My job isn’t to predict where the stock trades, my job is is to estimate intrinsic value and posses the discipline to demand a sufficient margin of safety before committing capital. And if there’s one business that deserves a meaningful margin of safety, it’s one that launches rockets into outer space. Discipline isn’t buying a stock simply because it’s down. Discipline is refusing to overpay, even after a 50% decline. 🌹

@aliciainedmonds It’s not the city - it’s the people who govern it that are trashy..

One of the great things about ⚽️FIFA WC in Seattle ⚽️ these past few weeks: not seeing the usual “media” suspects posting about how awful, trashy, and dead Seattle is. Or maybe they were drowned out on my timelines by all the positive posts that showcased unity, diversity, and peaceful protests (at one match in particular). Alas, FIFA is pretty much over here in #Seattle, and the “Seattle is so horrible” posts are surfacing again. It was nice while it lasted. 🤷🏽‍♀️

@mustafasuleyman @satyanadella fire this doofus!

Introducing Ode Poetry. Ode is a wonderful poetry pharmacy that reads you a poem for the moment you’re in. Just tell Ode what you're feeling, and it uses Microsoft AI audio models to connect you with the same work that poetry expert William Sieghart would recommend. The best technology doesn't replace human creativity, it helps more people experience it. Super proud of the team for making this truly humanist tool. More in the blog: microsoft.ai/news/ode-poetr…

@Geiger_Capital If half your revenues are outside the US, are you still an American company? Don’t you want to stay competitive globally .. margins cannot be assumed .. also what about the sp if costs are higher ?

Microsoft continues to lay off thousands of American employees, while simultaneously applying for thousands of H-1B visas. This is absurd and should be illegal.

@jacobandreou Just as $msft news flow is indicating move away from OAI ?

@realroseceline @FromValue Baseball is more boring than curling!! And not true that Americans don’t care about football..

Nope, it’s boring to most Americans. If our best athletes grew up playing soccer instead of commercial American sports, the us would be a perennial powerhouse. Athletic talent, balance, etc is not the issue. Interest and culture are. Most Americans simply don’t care about soccer to make it our primary sport bc it’s boring and (you can’t show ads) 💤

I see many “if our best athletes played soccer, we'd be world champions” BS. Soccer is different from other sports. As long as you don't understand that, you will not get better. The most important thing is not athleticism, it's ball handling. Messi is the GOAT and he's 5 ft 7, not the fastest and he doesn't have the best condition of all, but he is still the best. His nickname is 'The Flea' and that's not because he is so athletic. To become good, you have to play from a preschool age, playing in neighborhood street games, etc. The fact that so many don't see that, shows their ignorance about the sports. Now, don't get me wrong. Of course, if you are good in one sports, you are more likely to be better at an other. Remco Evenepoel is one of the best in road cycling in the world but he only started at the age of 16. Before that, he was the captain of the Belgian soccer team of his age groups. But no way he could have done it the other way around. As long as you don't understand this, you will lose against Belgium and other teams that are above the US.

@Kasparov63 Stop spreading rumors

Incredible Egyptian goal is disallowed because of a foul far away, then same situation a few minutes later and goal for Argentina not disallowed! No VAR, nothing? FIFA again looks like a corrupt joke, playing favorites for stars.

@WoodTwcapital01 how long does one give a company with potential before moving on for good..

$envx it looks like some folks have had enough and just hitting the eject button on the open. Can't blame them, poor execution with even worse communication.

@elonmusk What are so many people doing on n Reddit?

𝕏 had the highest monthly growth of any top 10 site in June

@_The_Prophet__ Seems like a good idea on principle, but opens up a huge opportunity for Dems to transfer wealth from makers to takers

⚡️This is the state trying to rescue capitalism by making the wage class feel like owners. The old American bargain has failed for too many people. Work hard, save cash, buy a home, build stability. That path no longer clears for millions because wages cannot outrun asset inflation, housing inflation, healthcare, insurance, tuition, debt, and debasement. Cash savings alone became a trap. The people who own assets compound. The people who only earn wages absorb the damage. So the political system is starting to admit the truth indirectly: survival requires ownership. Adult investment accounts would be a way to pull non-owners into the asset machine before they turn fully against it. Give them accounts. Give them market exposure. Give them a stake in equities, American companies, maybe bonds, maybe index funds, maybe domestic industrial champions. Make capitalism feel participatory again. That is powerful. It also reveals desperation. A healthy wage economy does not need the state to manufacture entry into capital markets. People save naturally because income has surplus. They buy homes because affordability exists. They invest because life has margin. Programs like this appear when the private path to asset ownership has narrowed so badly that the government has to intervene to keep belief alive. The best version creates real capital formation. Millions of adults get automatic ownership exposure. The working class learns compounding. Household balance sheets strengthen. Political resentment toward markets softens because more people participate in the upside. The worst version becomes patriotic financial engineering. Treasury issues more debt, the Fed quietly supports the funding market, money flows into accounts, accounts buy assets, asset prices rise, politicians call it prosperity, and the currency absorbs the lie. Wall Street gets another flow pipe. Asset managers get fees. Indexes get demand. Ordinary people get a small slice of a machine that still heavily favors those who already own the bulk of it. That is the danger. This program only works morally if it is paired with real productive capacity: jobs, energy, housing supply, industrial investment, lower living costs, family formation, and genuine wage-to-ownership conversion. If it becomes another deficit-funded asset pump, it will help markets while confirming the debasement thesis. The market read is obvious: bullish for equities, brokerages, asset managers, index flows, retirement platforms, and the broader financialization of household policy. Also bullish for Bitcoin and hard assets if the funding source is deficit-heavy, because the same state encouraging citizens to save may be weakening the unit they save in. Trump is trying to give Americans a stake in the machine before they decide the machine is rigged beyond repair. That is the whole political economy now. Ownership or revolt. Capital formation or resentment. A society with a tiny owner class and a giant renter-wage class becomes unstable. This is an attempt to widen ownership without dismantling the system.