From Growth To Value

Wake up, honey! The new Overview of the Week is out! 🙌 This week: * A slew of stock market memes and funny quotes. * Are we near a top? Several elements seem to suggest that. * $NOW disrupted by AI? $NVDA doesn't think so and the two partner for enterprise AI. * 1 in 8 Americans is already on GLP-1. Why $LLY is the one to bet on, not $NVO. * Much more

The best companies in the past avoided people bloat. The best companies of now and the future avoid token bloat.

@Gomez65314744 Why not both, like me? 🙂

@FromValue I rather have all my money on amzn and not meli

"If you're going to do anything new or innovative, you have to be willing to be misunderstood. If you cannot afford to be misunderstood, then for goodness' sake, don't do anything new or innovative." Jeff Bezos $MELI

@CDMarkAngel Well, I see a lot of posts on their 'collapsing margins' so...

@FromValue Don't see anyone arguing they shouldn't invest. Different folks are going to have different opinions on the magnitude of spend and on what. But investors should be tracking the efficiency of any mgmt investing/capital allocation.

People: "Jeff Bezos was such a great visionary investing in $AMZN so much for so long." Same people: "Why i are $MELI and $SE investing so much?" Because they are leaders in their markets and know what to do.

@CDMarkAngel Those companies are in markets that are way earlier than Amazon is now. They must invest.

@FromValue knowing what to do doesn't equal getting it right all the time. jeff didn't mind embracing failure to thrive. folks kicking the tires on large investing seems fair.

@GabGrowth 😂😂😂

*MELI grows 49%* “SE must be losing market share” *SE grows 46%* “MELI must be losing market share”

This has nothing to do with Ai and you just slow how ignorant you are about $MELI. Yes, has underperformed over the last 5 years but not because of AI but because of the Covid bubble it was in back then. Negative cherry-picking. I could also pick the bottom in 2022, like you pick the top in 2021.

I don’t care what the stock did 10 years ago or even 5 years ago. AI entered the picture over the past couple of years, and ever since then, the stock has significantly underperformed the market. If this were just some kind of drawdown because of earnings or something similar, that’s fine , that happens. The issue is that we don’t know how AI is going to affect the business models of these companies. Are people going to order directly without using platforms in the next two or three years? Am I just going to open my AI agent and tell it to buy from the cheapest source, bypassing all these platforms and marketplaces entirely? We don’t know. And I don’t care what the stock did over the last 20 years. All I care about is what it has done over the past couple of years since the introduction of AI started changing the paradigm.

$MELI is not “the Amazon of Latin America.” It never was, and it never will be. Just repeating that label creates false expectations and lazy analysis. Mercado Libre has its own business model, its own market structure, its own risks, and its own limitations. It has nothing to do with Amazon beyond surface-level comparisons people use because it sounds catchy. This is exactly how investors get trapped in narratives. I warned about $MELI before, and it’s interesting to see how many hate messages and comments I received telling me how dumb I was when the stock was around $1,900. A lot of influencers on X even reposted my comments just to mock the idea. Now it’s funny to see how many of those same people quietly deleted their tweets. This is exactly why you should never become emotionally attached to narratives. Because valuation and price often have very little to do with each other in the short-to-medium term. Markets move on momentum, perception, positioning, and future expectations. 𝘼 𝙡𝙤𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙥𝙚𝙤𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙬𝙝𝙤 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙨𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙡𝙮 𝙗𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙚𝙫𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙩 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚. 𝙁𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙢 𝙩𝙤 𝙗𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝙬𝙧𝙤𝙣𝙜, 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙪𝙨𝙪𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙝𝙖𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙗𝙚 𝙖 𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙩: 𝘼 𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙣𝙖𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙. 𝘼 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨. 𝙎𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙣𝙚𝙬 𝙞𝙣𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣. 𝘼 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙨. The fact that so many people on X still think $MELI is an obvious bargain while the stock keeps trading this poorly is, in my opinion, more of a warning sign than an encouraging sign. Because it suggests many holders still haven’t capitulated. They still believe. They still haven’t emotionally given up on the stock. Real bottoms usually come with exhaustion, apathy, forced selling, and disbelief - not confidence. You saw it before in $PYPL. You saw it before in $NOW. You see it now in $MELI. And many others. “Cheap” alone is rarely enough. Go through the history of most people currently calling $MELI a great opportunity, and you’ll notice that most of them were saying the exact same thing when it was trading at $1,900 too. Without a catalyst, without strong price action, and without a real change in trend, it’s difficult for a broken stock to suddenly recover just because people think the valuation looks attractive. Bad charts can always get worse.

@_mujanovic_m @ZeeContrarian1 Das stimmt!💯

@FromValue @ZeeContrarian1 In 2022 ich habe SHOP und SPOT gekauft die guten Zahlen folgend und sehr viel Geld damit verdient. Geduld ist Tugend💪

$CPNG, $SE, and $MELI, all major e-commerce and digital commerce platform companies, now share eerily similar charts and are each down roughly ~40% over the past 12 months, signaling there may be a much bigger problem with the sector than people currently understand.

So, you want more $SOXX right? Buy semis! YOLO! Seriously, you know how this will end, right? I have positions in $AMD, $NVDA, $AVGO, BESI, $TSM, $ASML. so I'm doing well and this is not written out of frustration as some posts here. I know that earnings are going like this too, but every single technology from the past has had efficiency improvements and they come in sudden jumps. If, sorry, WHEN that happens for AI, there will be oversupply and a semis crash. Nothing new. Don't ask me when. Timing this is extremely hard, so there may be another leg up, who knows.

@stonk_wisdom What do you mean? The stock even outperforms both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq over this period.

@FromValue This time it’s different $TMDX 🤞

It's the 4th time in 5 years that $TMDX's stock has fallen by more than 60%.

@Bat_tery Yes 😀

@FromValue Reminds me of $MNST 20 years ago.

Over the long term, the stock price and the fundamentals will follow the same trajectory.

@ReneSellmann It has no content. Only "but price, bro" 🤷‍♂️

Worth a read - especially because it’s so provocative.

@paul_k_0907 Seriously, dude... As if there's nothing outside of 1s and 0s. 🙄

@FromValue Fair enough.. I suppose you can have the goal of supporting a moral business instead of maximizing investment return. However all the discussions I see on this platform focus on the latter not the former.

@cmsinvests If you want to read the full investment case, you can read it for free here: x.com/FromValue/stat…

$NVDA CEO IS PUMPING SERVICENOW. $NOW is a $200 stock trading below $100 Don’t listen to me, listen to Jensen Huang.