Sergey Vasilyev

@NorthstarCharts Can you please clarify the meaning of “secular” (shift, bull run, etc.)? I am not a native English speaker, for me it only means “non-religious/atheistic”, and I don’t get it in this context of markets.

It's done: Massive secular shift confirmed away from stock markets towards gold, silver & friends 👇

🇩🇪 German news TLDR: die Bürgergeldbeschränkungsdiskussionorgie (loop video).

@DonDurrett @HQRaccoon Wow, that’s a useful insight. I thought it is the company who lists pinks. I will have to repurchase some positions due to this. Luckily, not many — I prefer buying on the exchanges of the same countries where they keep the headquarters (Canada/Australia for mining).

Understand what pink sheets mean for foreign stocks. It means that those foreign companies did not ask to be listed and have nothing to do with it. This generally means the liquidity is terrible, which leads to awful premiums both buying and selling. But that isn't the biggest risk. These stocks are basically unregulated. If a stock is delisted on the pinks, but still trades on the main exchange, you can lose everything. I owned a gold miner on the pinks and thought it was okay because the main symbol in London traded at $10 and had excellent volume ($1B company), and pretty good volume on OTC. Then the OTC symbol was suddenly delisted. My shares went poof. My online broker said it was delisted and there was nothing they could do. I asked, who got my shares, but they had no answers. After that, I have become very leery of buying pinks (and don't even think about buying greys!). 😉

I review a list of potential 5-bagger gold producers at $5,000 gold. 3 Locations: YouTube: youtu.be/BG5M3qw6rFk Google Drive: drive.google.com/file/d/1iQWZVb… Substack (You can watch for free) dondurrett.substack.com/p/5-bagger-gol…

@DonDurrett Why is it still there? I thought they took it back years ago.

How many years will NY need to send it back? 😂

@NorthstarCharts @badcharts1 Coining it: SOSiG trade 🌭

If you think silver will eventually hit $100... Crude oil is also most likely going to be north of $300, maybe more than $400 at around the same time. Purchasing power destruction and capital rotation towards commodities are a real thing.

@Patty6667 I'm also looking at $groy. No news, nothing. My guess: someone has put a market order to sell instead of a limit order. The liquidity is low in extended hours, the volume is low on average, probably there were no bids, so it has cut through the book like a knife through butter.

Hey #gold royalty experts. Why was $GROY down almost 30% in premarket today? The decline has now settled at -12%, but I cannot find any news why this happened. Thanks!

@BambroughKevin Organic reader here. Though I do not post to x much.

I'm posting articles more with allowing commentary from accounts I follow to try to reduce bots. reply below if your human and want to interact. I hope you like this article. It's about spotting big new trends.

@GeorgeGammon Let’s wait for the next step: tariffs on software made outside of the US. Because of “national security” and all the things. There will be a lot of fun with open source software :-) But even the development firms barely can say what of their product line is actually made where.

How does a tariff on a movie even work? So a movie is shot in Mexico, the raw footage is sent via internet to LA where it’s edited And then it isn’t sold, it’s shown on Netflix, as an example, that charges a monthly fee for their service What is the tariff on the movie? And what if it’s a James Bond type film that requires shots in geographic locations outside US, is that tariffed? What if only 10% is filmed outside the US? And is the percentage based on the raw footage, edited amount, there’s no way to quantify any of this It’s not a good that has a price nor does it come into a port where it can be tracked? I thought we hated “woke” Hollywood, don’t we want them all to go to Canada? And by far the most insane thing is categorizing movies as a “national security threat” 😂

@DonDurrett I wouldn’t risk a generic mining position by such «scalping», esp. a low-volume one —learned that lesson the hard way— but I’m concerned specifically about NEM because of its ties with large-scale passive vehicles (SPX&SPY&Co). Thank you! And thank you for all the work you do ❤️

Read the last paragraph again, and then decide. One thing I have learned is that during gold miner bull markets, you can scalp to the top. Each time you get a run, such as the recent 300 to 400 HUI. You can take profit and then wait for the next dip for re-entry. Those dips nearly always come.

GSD Friday Recap. AU: $3327 ($3236- Last Week Spot) AG: $32.54 (32.23) HUI: 399 (390) DXY: 99 (99) S&P: 5297 (5363) 10-Yr: 4.33% (4.49%) Oil: $64 (61) Gold was up $90 this week, and the S&P was down 66 points. Gold continues to lead in 2025 and is the canary. What is gold doing at $3300 and Wall St is struggling? I think it is obvious. Trump lit the match when he announced his tariffs on Liberation Day two weeks ago. What did he set on fire? Everything: the economy, the US dollar, the UST bond market, and the entire US financial system. He's burning it all to the ground. Liberation Day was the equivalent of the Titanic hitting the iceberg. Now we wait to sink (economic growth will stop, but the economy won't completely crash). Powell is in denial and thinks the Fed is still the Master of the Universe. He said this week that he will wait and see how the tariffs affect the economy and inflation. It's too late! He could drop rates by 1% at their next meeting in May (he will likely cut 50 bps in June), but it wouldn't matter. He could adopt QE and inject liquidity. It won't matter. The ship is going down. This is the end of the US era. Powell is not the only one in denial. So is all of Wall St. Most of them are optimistic for the second half of the year. They believe that Trump will back down on his tariffs (he won't) and the Fed will work its Fed magic (it won't). This is why gold is at $3300. Gold has sniffed out what is coming. It won't be long now before the S&P gets below 5000 and ignites the fear trade. A fear trade is when no one wants to own the S&P 500. There is only one gold miner in the S&P 500 (Newmont), and there are zero silver miners. That is what investors will want to own. Trump's problem is that Triffin's Dilemma and the Von Mises debt bubble have both climaxed. Trump probably has no clue what either of those are, but what he does know is that the USA can no longer use an economic system based on free-trade globalism in its current form. He knows it is quickly bankrupting us. He knows that we have kicked the can as far as it will go. So, he has decided to try to save America. Unfortunately, it is too late. I've known this outcome was inevitable. What I didn't know was that it would take this long. I'm not looking forward to the unraveling. It won't be pretty. There will be winners and losers, and a lot of hardship. Sadly, America in its current form will not survive. Okay, okay, I know what you want. Do we buy or sell? As I've said, gold is not going to crash, so any corrections will be shallow (10% or less) and won't last long. As gold has risen, the floor for gold has also risen. The HUI had a floor of 200 in early 2024, and then it rose to around 250 at the end of 2024. Now the HUI's floor is probably 280 to 300, and perhaps higher. Gold's floor is probably $2750 to $2850. Those are not levels to be afraid of because they will be temporary. Gold is going higher, and so are the gold miners. Yes, we will get a dip, we always do. But it won't be deep. Best guess.

And here we go — the recession in the US begins yesterday. PS: US10y-US02y, the yield spread of 10yrs and 2yrs treasuries.

@GeorgeGammon I always wanted to ask you (and others) a question that you might dislike, or rage against, and which is probably out of your attention scope, but nevertheless: What would be your trade of you were expecting a civil war in the US within 1-2-3 years? Hypothetically, of course.

This Is GFC Levels Of Volatility...Are We Headed For A Crisis? x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@DonDurrett Also note, 22.34% is the lowest premium, not an average. It is for a huge 5kg (160oz) bars. For "average" 1-oz bars/coins, the premiums are at 30-35+%. Source: gold.de/aufgeldtabelle…

@DonDurrett Yes. Taxes. In EU, silver bullion is subject to ≈20% VAT on purchase, so the prices were at $38-42 when spot was $32-33. Today, the lowest price is $36.16/oz (Silberbarren 5kg), when spot is $29.59 = 22.34% premium. Japan has 10% on puchase (?). So, it's not a fair comparison.

This is fake, right? 😳

@JeremySzafron I tried to see how they are "rotating". It seems to be only a local US-specific rotation, maybe just a flight from specifically the US stocks. No rotation here in Germany. x.com/nolar/status/1…

Markets are noisy. Tariffs. IPOs. AI fears. PCE hotter. But here's the takeaway: Gold is rising, the DXY is firm, and hedgies are rotating into hard assets and real economy names. Smart money is positioning.

@badcharts1 It feels as if the market believes the miners are locked in the old pre-inflation prices to sell the gold, hedged against the growth. Which, I think, is false.

@badcharts1 Another view on this: inflation is essentially new value of usd / old value of usd (simplified). So, gold/inflation = (gold/current.usd)/(current.usd/old.usd) = gold measured in old-valued usd — this is what miners follow. Why not the today-valued usd?

Gold & silver miners doing what gold & silver miners are supposed to be doing... That is tracking gold's trend versus inflation.

@LynAldenContact [a Software Engineer's first thoughts]: 🦜 I don't know if this smart parrot is stochastic or deterministic, but parrots are going to replace 90% of programmers in 1 year — sure thing, I saw a parrot breeder saying this on youtube. 🤣

When I was a teenager, I had a parrot that regularly opened an even more complex mechanism. He had to flip it up, and then pull it to the side. Took a bit to figure out, but then he could do it as fast as me.