Mitya Smusin@mityasmusin
SWE-turned-plumber because of AI?
In other words, how fucked are we?
I've been running a software engineering firm for over 8 years. I have worked with hundreds of engineers.
Good and bad.
Architects and newbies.
And I can confidently say that most people misunderstand what's going to happen.
1. Coders vs Engineers
Engineers usually work on problems that:
a) depend on a number of inputs
b) those inputs are usually very unclear and loosely formulated
c) involve collective effort and multidisciplinary teams.
More often than not, the eventual solution lies outside of where the challenge was initially perceived to be.
Even the extreme techno optimists don't predict that AI will be able to tackle that anytime soon.
In other words:
the code is not the primary value engineers create.
Coding is just the result of a deep understanding of the context.
Coders, on the other side, take a Figma design and turn it into an HTML file (slightly exaggerating).
Those guys are fucked (not exaggerating at all).
2. People
Most outsiders don't appreciate how much creating software means working with people.
In many cases, it means you need to understand what people desire when they don't understand it themselves.
You need to ask the right questions. You need to understand what parts of information to drop.
What not to act on.
You need to collaborate with team mates.
You need to stay within budgets.
You need to understand how to make your work future-proof.
3. Soft skills
The intersection of being a good programmer and the ability to efficiently work with humans skills is very rare, but the advent of AI will incentivize more people to grow in that direction.
Engineers will capitalize on any new tool, just like they always have.
But they will apply it to amplify their own understanding of business challenges.
AI is a tool. You can compare it to a great framework.
It will definitely accelerate the work of great engineers, and one person will be able to do more than they would otherwise.
But the technological revolution is far from over, and like any of them before, it will be driven by engineers.
In fact, I think it's just getting started.
Bottom line:
If you're a good engineer, you have nothing to worry about.
You create value and connect the dots that an AI is unlikely to be able to connect in the next decade.
If you're a monkey coder, learn plumbing.
