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1.6K posts
I've decided to keep Pandora's Box closed for a bit longer...
There are too many national security implications that need to be figured out first!
Going back to the comment section... it's pretty funny 90% of you are cheering for chaos?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Should I open Pandora's box with my next post?
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@aleabitoreddit When do you think $IQE will get most of its gains? personally think there is still huge potential for the current valuation
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There’s $TSEM, my safer photonics compounder.
Then there’s my race horse on steroids, with a rocket ship attached:
$AXTI.
My positions are up over 550%+.
And AXT is up another 10.38% today.
$NVDA returns got left in the dust, as identifying AXT as the InP bottleneck few months ago was generational wealth to many.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$TSEM does not concern itself with the rest of the market. Tower semi is one of my favorite photonic names, as a safer $TSM like compounder. For the new paradigm of AI. Up 5.8% today.
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@mc_khristina i think this will pull back quite a bit further with markets not given enough time to react. could see a lot of volatility tmrw
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@PhotonCap @aleabitoreddit true having a position is valuable but i would not go all in yet as there remains to be seen how the market reacts to nvidia gtc
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Soitec SOI wafers were toys rolling around my lab bench in grad school. Expensive toys — but that's how ubiquitous they were in photonics research.
Saw @aleabitoreddit's post this morning. Impulse bought.If Corning is the bloodstream of SiPh, SOI wafers are the spine. Without them, nothing stands.
No regrets if it drops. What mattered was having a position.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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@crux_capital_ i think once the market opens there will be enough oportunity to buy. would give it time though as i dont think a lot of investors will be happy about the new atm and sell their profits for now
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The $AAOI trade is simple
I don't hear anyone disputing the demand forecasts for this year or next for pluggables.
We know that the market for pluggables will continue to grow for the next 3-4 years at least.
And based on all the earnings calls there is, and will continue to be, a significant supply + demand imbalance for at least the next 18 months.
So it really comes down to whether you believe that management can expand capacity or not and whether they can deliver on time or not.
If you believe they can, then a buy at any meaningful dip here is very attractive.
If you don't believe they can, then a short at any pop is very attractive.
In my opinion CPO is a non factor through 2027. They are aggressively positioning to be a key player in this market, but for the next 2 years its all about the pluggable ramp, We also know that they are aggressively positioning with SiPh.
So at the end of the day, every investor should have a level where they believe it to be either attractive for a buy or a short based on all the information we have available today. Then update their model whenever they are presented new information.
I remain long and will continue to add at a level that I believe it to be attractive today until I get information that proves otherwise.
Not financial advice, just talking through how I see this!
Gaetano@crux_capital_
It's not enough to believe, we must stress test $AAOI Since AOI's massive jump there'sa lot more chatter on X Lots of bullish takes Lots of bearish takes I am in the process of compiling all the risks and the counterpoints to them In addition to adding what I believe we need to really keep a close eye on to build conviction Drop your thoughts + concerns + risks that you want me to cover The more, the better
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@TheStoicCapital would watch this one carefully. let the market open on this news and watch
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@aleabitoreddit Hey brother,
ive been following you for a few weeks now and i really love the work you are doing. your analysis are easy to understand. i think even for people that are not that deep in the stock market.
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NAND prices have now spiraled out of control.
Memory companies like $SNDK, $MU, Samsung, SK Hynix stand to benefit the most from inelastic supply and recent NAND price hikes.
According to Phison's CEO per Digitimes:
"NAND flash prices have surged amid tightening supply, with some manufacturers raising quotations by as much as 50% overnight"
This follows reports this week that Samsung has just doubled NAND prices for Q2.
Available inventory is becoming non-existent, with hyperscalers and companies willing to pay anything to secure allocation.
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@aleabitoreddit hey man i currently have lost a lot of trust in the stock market and have not invested in a long time and therfore sitting on a lot of cash. but i really like this list you have put together. if you were a 100% cash right now. how much would you put into this list?
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The "Bottleneck ETF" from supply chain mapping.
Not a single name red.
Equal weighted results 1W: +12.83%.
List:
$LITE: +31.68%
$AMKR: +28.7%
Disco: +24.35%
$GLW: +23.57%
$COHR: +23.5%
$ONTO: +18.4%
$CAMT: +17.7%
$TSM: +15.8%
$ON: +15.8%
Samsung: +15.4%
$KLAC: +12.7%
$APH: +11.6%
$MRVL: +11.4%
$MU: +10.6%
$MOD: +10.6%
Sk Hynix: +10.31%
$VICR: +9.6%
$AVGO: +9.46%
$SBGSY: +9.27%
$ETN: +9.1%
$BESIY: +8.53%
$IFNNY: +7.37%
$MPWR: +6.85%
$SNDK: +6.4%
$QLCM: +6.12%
$AMD: +6.01%
Mediatek: +6%
Kioxia: +3.68%
$INTC: +1.62%
I feel like institutions just bought this entire list from last week's framework?
This level of performance is pretty crazy.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Here's my TLDR + mapped into investment framework from Semivision bottleneck summary: HBM: HBM4 (16Hi) - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU HBF - $SNDK, Kioxia Base Die - $TSM, Samsung (internal) CPO/photonics; Glass Substrate: $GLW, $INTC, Ibiden Optical: $LITE, $AVGO, $COHR, $MRVL Power Delivery: Volatage: $MPWR, $VICR Thermal: $VRT, $NVT, $MOD Grid: $ETN, $SBGSY SiC/GaN: $ON, $IFNNY Rack: $APH N2 Volume: $TSM , $AMD (First mover dc), $QLCM, Mediatek, $NVDA Advanced Packaging: Yield: $CAMT, $ONTO, $KLAC OSATs: $AMKR $BESIY, Disco Semivision's summary: 1. "advanced packaging capacity and yield control" 2. "HBM ecosystem coordination" 3. "power delivery innovation (SiC, GaN PMICs, rack-level power architectures)" 4. "CPO/photonics integration capability" 5. "data center infrastructure as a “hidden limiter” to semiconductor revenue realization" As you probably know, I'm probably most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU, $LITE above. And $TSM. I probably go a bit more upstream like $AXTI for InP precursors, but midstream players are the chokepoint + control most of the pricing. But just added commentary of related companies to topics to make things simpler for the regular retail investor.
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@OnChainAdvocate @Cobratate Obviously he’s being paid to push bitcoin as a buy.
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@johnsummit John I didn't see you but sounds like you had a great time. Much love and see you next year
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just slept for 2 days straight after raving for a week in amsterdam. if u saw me off my face not knowing where i was no u didnt
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@Lfc_Fluxx @MusialaxOlise @iMiaSanMia @FarinGraphics @HKane I mean he didn't do it at either league yet? What is that argument
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𝗛𝗮𝗿𝗿𝘆 𝗞𝗮𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲'𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝟱 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗴𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗴𝗼𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗯 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟭𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗿𝘆
He's done it in 104 games, surpassing Cristiano Ronaldo and Erling Haaland (both in 105 games)
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@teewurscht Jason Derulo war in fucking Regensburg der lässt sich wahrscheinlich für nen feuchten Händedruck kaufen
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@thr0at_g0at__ I had a blast seeing solomun in London. Have a great fucking time
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getting dumped❌
getting dumped in spain✅
no time to be sad getting ready to see solomun now
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Das ist AI generiert da bin ich faat 100% sicher. Jetzt stellt sich nur die Frage warum? Ist er schon Tod? Hat er es wenigstens selbst so approved oder ist das gerade ne Schattenpräsidentschaft? Kein Land ich dem ich leben möchte jedenfalls.
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
TO MY GREAT FELLOW AMERICANS…
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