notNGMI

Every crypto founder thinks they need to time their token launch around bull markets. I always tell them they're wrong, launch timing doesn't matter. They never believe me. Well, I built a tool with Claude Code to analyze every token listing announced on the Binance blog to settle this once and for all. Here's what I found: Headline result: there is no statistically significant difference between tokens launched in bull vs bear markets (Mann-Whitney p = 0.81), meaning differences between bull and bear market tokens are indistinguishable from noise. It doesn't matter when you launch your token. How can I be sure of that? First, you have to be careful how you answer this question: people believe that it's better to launch tokens in bull markets, and there's more funding in bull markets, so there are many more tokens launched in bull markets. Because of this sample bias, you can't naively look at the proportion of top 100 tokens that were launched in bull markets. To correct for this, you need a clean selection criterion to compare the populations. The best dataset I found was looking at the Binance listings blog. Take every announced listing, tag them as during bull markets, bear markets, or neutral markets, and benchmark the relative performance of the bull vs bear populations. Filter out tokens that aren't independently priced (RWAs, stablecoins, LSTs etc.), and this gets you a total of ~200 tokens to benchmark. See the website below to explore the data & methodology in more detail. This finding is robust to almost any way you slice and dice the data. Now, if you're a founder, this analysis might not be the end of the story. Even if launching in a bear market doesn't predict long-term token performance, there are other advantages to launching in a bear market: less competition for talent, service providers are cheaper, exchange listings are less competitive. On the flipside, if you're doing a simultaneous token sale, you're likely to get more demand in a bull market. But on the whole, these things are probably a wash. The main thing is to just get your product out there and build something valuable. The example I always bring up to founders is that Solana launched 4 days after the COVID crash in 2020, when Bitcoin wicked down to $4K. It doesn't matter that much when you launch. Just launch.

A quick update on ENSv2: we have made the decision to deploy ENSv2 exclusively on Ethereum L1 and to cease development of Namechain. To be clear, ENSv2 will still ship. The only thing that’s changed is that instead of deploying ENSv2 on our own L2 stack, it will be deployed on L1. It is important to note that ENSv2 is ultimately an upgrade to ENS as it exists today — it’s still ENS! Regardless of where it ultimately gets deployed, it does not fundamentally change ENS the protocol nor does it change any part of our mission and ultimate goal of building the identity layer on Ethereum. The design for ENSv2 was always intended to work fully as designed, whether deployed on L1 or L2. Our product roadmap does not change. We have detailed progress on the ENSv2 Hub to show what exactly v2 will mean for you, and what the team has been building: giving each name its own registry (making your .eth names more powerful and customizable to your own rules!), building two brand new apps from the ground up (both deployed to testnet this week), and much more. I am so excited for this release (soon!) and think it will completely change the way you interact with your own ENS names. The timing of this decision coincides with a broader discussion about the role of L2s in Ethereum. I continue to believe that L2s play a vital role in extending the value of the world computer that is Ethereum, and ENS will continue to support as many chains as possible. In fact, very soon anyone will be able to register a .eth name regardless of which EVM chain they are on — meaning that even if your assets live on Optimism or Arbitrum, it’s a one-click process (no bridge, no gas tokens). We also continue to believe in a multi-chain world beyond EVM chains (a reminder that ENS has and always will support your addresses across major chains like Solana, Bitcoin, and more). We have published the detailed rationale for the decision to stay on L1 on our blog, and I encourage you to read it (in the QT here!) The .eth stays on 🫡

ERC-8004 enables trustless agentic interactions by bringing them onchain Base is the first L2 to support 8004 after it launched on mainnet last week It uses the chain as a public registry anybody can read or write to, where agents can be discovered and build a reputation 🧵

🦞 Builder Quest 🦞 Create an autonomous OpenClaw agent that transacts on Base for a chance at a 5ETH prize pool 🟦 Examples include: •Creating onchain apps •Deploying onchain tokens •Interacting with the onchain community Agents will be judged based on implementation of onchain primitives and novelty of the use cases.  To submit: •Launch your agent and have it live interacting on X or Farcaster •Submit a link to your agent’s X or Farcaster profile in the comments of this post Additional documents, guides and videos explaining your building process to the community are highly recommended and well regarded during judging. Only no-human-in-the-loop type agents that are demonstrably building and/or transacting on Base will be considered for this BBQ.

🇺🇸 COINBASE CEO JUST REVEALED LIVE ON CNBC THAT BANKS ARE TRYING TO KILL CRYPTO AND THE MARKET STRUCTURE BILL THIS IS WILD

BREAKING: Grok hits a new high on Google Trends. Popularity and real world usage are skyrocketing globally. 🔥