noturhandle

If a best-of-3 coin flip stops after 1 toss, how do you split the pot? It took 160 years but Pascal + Fermat found an answer: probability theory Understanding probability is the difference between profit and ruin in games of risk And trading derivatives is the MMO of risk

request: polymarket on whether Kalshi’s on-chain perps will be HIP-3 and will be followed up with on-chain event contracts via HIP-4 can’t see the team rolling their own infra for perps

@zostaff @Esk3nder 👀

AI BASKETBALL ANALYSIS. A FULL COMPUTER VISION SYSTEM. BUILT ON YOLO, OPENCV, AND PYTHON. Take any NBA broadcast. Any camera angle. Any resolution. Feed it into the system. YOLO finds every player and the ball. Frame by frame. No manual annotation. No pre-labeled data.The model just sees the court and understands it. Zero-shot classification looks at jersey pixels and decides who plays for whom. Two teams separated in milliseconds. Without ever being told the team names. But here's where it gets wild. Court keypoint detection identifies the geometry of the playing surface. Homography transforms the broadcast camera into a top-down tactical map. Real meters. Real coordinates. From a flat 2D video. Now every player has a position on a real court. Every movement becomes a data point. Every pass becomes a vector. Speed. Distance. Possession time. Pass networks. All extracted from nothing but pixels. No GPS. No chips in the ball. No million-dollar Second Spectrum setup. A Python script and a GPU. The full pipeline is open source. The tutorial walks through every line of code. From detection to transformation to analytics output. Teams used to pay six figures for this data. Now you build it in an afternoon. Computer vision didn't just enter basketball. It democratized it.

*taps watch*

@nikshepsvn expect it will become the norm

@noturhandle ya close enough, their team is surprisingly technical and hands on, so makes sense they are moving towards building vs investing now that leverage has spiked with AI

paradigm is an interesting VC — they've been shipping open source infra (foundry, reth) since 2021, spun out ithaca, co-built tempo (a payments L1) with stripe, and now they're building an in-house prediction markets trading terminal. so not just writing checks anymore. as the cost of building and maintaining software trends toward zero, will more tech-heavy firms start shipping their own product/infra instead of just funding it?

@DennisonBertram @tallyxyz poetry

Updated my Linked profile now that I closed @tallyxyz. Checking out my job opportunities. Not looking good fam. The meme is real.

@LouisThibault87 @DistributedMarz a single web search apparently

@DistributedMarz what are you building?

claude code high score, 6 day prompt

@DistributedMarz 1.2k tokens 🧐

@leah_cb @tayvano_ @_SEAL_Org @Blackbigswaan DM’d!

My Telegram account (handle: @Leah_CB) was stolen last week and I no longer have access to it. Scammers are now using my REAL account to contact my frens and ask them to join a video call. Because it’s my actual Telegram account, you will see our REAL message history (for some of you, that will go back years!!!), our REAL shared photos and other media, etc. If you actually get on the call, you’ll see “me” but we'll be struggling to connect due to no audio and a bad connection. In the chat, “I” will ask you to download and run an update to fix the issue. This is a SCAM. It is NOT me. What's super scary is that it would be an *actual video recording of me* (not even a deep fake!!), that is played to you on the call, to make it look like I'm joining you. This is incredibly disarming. And that's how the scammers got me. I thought I was on a call with one of my good frens. I was completely trusting. To understand more about how this scam works, please read this thread by @tayvano_ of @_SEAL_Org: x.com/tayvano_/statu… AS A REMINDER: I will not contact you on Telegram asking for a call, and I will never ask you to download anything. If you want to verify anything at all, or you'd like to connect with me on WhatsApp going forward, please DM me here on Facebook. I’ve filed multiple appeals with @telegram but so far no reply. I have not been able to recover or disable the account. I saw today thanks to @tayvano_ that a similar scam is spreading on @signalapp too. Please help spread the word so others don’t get duped. * * * Below is a screenshot of a conversation I had with a fren on WhatsApp. He was immediately suspicious when "I" contacted him on Telegram asking for a catch up call, but with zero context. Cleverly, my fren asked "what's our safe word?" The scammer promptly deleted all our message history, and blocked him.

@DennisonBertram think they're running the "all press is good press" model

Once upon a time this industry gave tens of millions to unserious founders to build unserious things for unserious people. Now teams are insider trading their own single digit raises for a few thousand dollars. Even the high quality unserious people are gone.

@danrobinson throwing my hat in the ring for manifold not a pm but honorable mention for metaculus

Suppose I want to pay ~$100-500 to subsidize a prediction market on a specific question I have, with the goal of getting as accurate a probability estimate as possible. What is the best turnkey way for me to do that today?

@joshcrnls @thattallguy I expect the trade.xyz story won’t directly translate I expect a lot more direct competition from core for event contracts

if you’re a prediction market company that isn’t polymarket or kalshi you should be singularly focused on winning HIP-4

S&P Dow Jones Indices and trade[XYZ] have joined forces to launch the first official S&P 500 perpetual contract, available exclusively on Hyperliquid. For 69 years, the S&P 500 has been a defining reference point for global finance. Until now, access to that benchmark has been shaped by market hours, intermediaries, and geography. Today, that changes. The S&P 500 perp is now available 24/7/365, anchored by the official index data required for deep liquidity and institutional confidence at scale.  SPDJI helped define modern indexing. They are stewards of an iconic benchmark, the standard against which portfolios across the globe are measured. We are honored to bring that legacy on-chain. Trade[XYZ] is bringing the world's most iconic assets towards a future of global, continuous markets — a future powered by Hyperliquid.

@lililashka alfa pls

a teaser doing what a teaser does best. something pretty damn exciting is coming soon.

>> switch to Gemini 3.1 pro then do trading but run back test first

@BlockChainGod_1 @defi_monk @RyanWatkins_ clearly says conviction

@defi_monk @RyanWatkins_ Is this supposed to be contrarian? "The great perpification is just beginning.". I don't know anyone who would disagree.

Over the past 2 months @RyanWatkins_ and I have been working on our highest conviction thesis in crypto. This essay represents the culmination of all the research I’ve done over the past year. Why the perp is crypto’s greatest product, and how it can create a $300B+ sector:

unfair to notion