nuconomy ↑ | ∑₿
7.1K posts
nuconomy ↑ | ∑₿
@nuconomy
Bitcoin Believer, Ethereum Native, NFT Collectooor. Onchain since 2012.
Onchain Katılım Ağustos 2021
6K Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
I’m going to make a new chat today. There is no mint. There is no WL. There is no expectation of financial return. This will be where we align the pioneers and the real believers to set the tone for the next wave of this space. We need to bring the right people together to lead.
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Crypto easy money era has ended.
Historically, most easy money periods last 3-7 years:
- California Gold Rush lasted 7 years.
- Tulip mania lasted 3
- The dot-com bubble about 5 years before the Nasdaq dumped by 78%
- Japan's bubble was 6 years, then Nikkei took 34 years to recover
So most speculative booms in history last 3-7 years.
Crypto easy money started in 2017 with ICOs. Then DeFi summer 2020. NFTs in 2021. Airdrops. Points farming. Memecoins.
That's ~8 years of easy money.
We are already past that as every easy money model has been discovered, exploited, or arbitraged to max competition.
Philosophical hard-forks like BTC -> BTC Gold or ETH -> ETH classic are over as crypto ossified not just technically.
ICOs got regulated.
Airdrops get farmed by industrialized sybils.
Memecoin launches went from community fun projects to extraction tools.
The gold rush analogy seems quite good here as FOMOs end the same way:
Surface deposits get exhausted and then industrial mining takes over. (Literally same happened to BTC mining moving from retail to institutions who even IPOed from BTC mining.)
So here’s where crypto is now: TradFi suits moving in, tokenization, RWAs, corpo-sloppo permissioned chains, and regulation. The Trump family & insiders are the last to get easy money from crypto.
For retail, the surface easy money gold picking is gone.
What's left to earn requires real infra, real users, real revenue which means more specialization, specific knowledge and REAL hard effort.
Not sure how many of us who got easy money are ready to grind harder now.
So many builders, KOLs, projects are extracting as much as they (we) can before leaving crypto coz adapting to the new hard-money period is gonna be hard.
Question is: where to pivot for easy money? Asking for a friend.
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Participated in every single @OpenSea wave and didn’t get even a single CryptoPunk 😱
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TIL that Dogecoin is a fork of Luckycoin, which itself was a fork of Junkcoin, which was a fork of Litecoin, which in turn is a fork of Bitcoin.
My question: Can $DOGE become quantum resistant before BTC thus solidifying its status as store of value?
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Q1 was not as good as I imagined it would be.
None of the big TGEs that were promised happened.
The projects that did TGE were mostly failures.
InfoFi died, and with it a hated but consistent revenue stream.
Crypto as a whole dumped hard.
The good news is that after every bad quarter, there's hope for a better one.
Plus we didn't have any major meta or launches in Q1, so we're overdue.
Optimistic for Q2
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nuconomy ↑ | ∑₿ retweetledi
Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed (links in next tweet). Both papers improve Shor's algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimising separate layers of the quantum stack. The results are shocking. I expect a narrative shift and a further R&D boost toward post-quantum cryptography.
The first paper is by Google Quantum AI. They tackle the (logical) Shor algorithm, tailoring it to crack Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures. The algorithm runs on ~1K logical qubits for the 256-bit elliptic curve secp256k1. Due to the low circuit depth, a fast superconducting computer would recover private keys in minutes. I'm grateful to have joined as a late paper co-author, in large part for the chance to interact with experts and the alpha gleaned from internal discussions.
The second paper is by a stealthy startup called Oratomic, with ex-Google and prominent Caltech faculty. Their starting point is Google's improvements to the logical quantum circuit. They then apply improvements at the physical layer, with tricks specific to neutral atom quantum computers. The result estimates that 26,000 atomic qubits are sufficient to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures. This would be roughly a 40x improvement in physical qubit count over previous state-of-the-art. On the flip side, a single Shor run would take ~10 days due to the relatively slow speed of neutral atoms.
Below are my key takeaways. As a disclaimer, I am not a quantum expert. Time is needed for the results to be properly vetted. Based on my interactions with the team, I have faith the Google Quantum AI results are conservative. The Oratomic paper is much harder for me to assess, especially because of the use of more exotic qLDPC codes. I will take it with a grain of salt until the dust settles.
→ q-day: My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there's at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key. While a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) before 2030 still feels unlikely, now is undoubtedly the time to start preparing.
→ censorship: The Google paper uses a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof to demonstrate the algorithm's existence without leaking actual optimisations. From now on, assume state-of-the-art algorithms will be censored. There may be self-censorship for moral or commercial reasons, or because of government pressure. A blackout in academic publications would be a tell-tale sign.
→ cracking time: A superconducting quantum computer, the type Google is building, could crack keys in minutes. This is because the optimised quantum circuit is just 100M Toffoli gates, which is surprisingly shallow. (Toffoli gates are hard because they require production of so-called "magic states".) Toffoli gates would consume ~10 microseconds on a superconducting platform, totalling ~1,000 sec of Shor runtime.
→ latency optimisations: Two latency optimisations bring key cracking time to single-digit minutes. The first parallelises computation across quantum devices. The second involves feeding the pubkey to the quantum computer mid-flight, after a generic setup phase.
→ fast- and slow-clock: At first approximation there are two families of quantum computers. The fast-clock flavour, which includes superconducting and photonic architectures, runs at roughly 100 kHz. The slow-clock flavour, which includes trapped ion and neutral atom architectures, runs roughly 1,000x slower (~100 Hz, or ~1 week to crack a single key).
→ qubit count: The size-optimised variant of the algorithm runs on 1,200 logical qubits. On a superconducting computer with surface code error correction that's roughly 500K physical qubits, a 400:1 physical-to-logical ratio. The surface code is conservative, assuming only four-way nearest-neighbour grid connectivity. It was demonstrated last year by Google on a real quantum computer.
→ future gains: Low-hanging fruit is still being picked, with at least one of the Google optimisations resulting from a surprisingly simple observation. Interestingly, AI was not (yet!) tasked to find optimisations. This was also the first time authors such as Craig Gidney attacked elliptic curves (as opposed to RSA). Shor logical qubit count could plausibly go under 1K soonish.
→ error correction: The physical-to-logical ratio for superconducting computers could go under 100:1. For superconducting computers that would be mean ~100K physical qubits for a CRQC, two orders of magnitude away from state of the art. Neutral atoms quantum computers are amenable to error correcting codes other than the surface code. While much slower to run, they can bring down the physical to logical qubit ratio closer to 10:1.
→ Bitcoin PoW: Commercially-viable Bitcoin PoW via Grover's algorithm is not happening any time soon. We're talking decades, possibly centuries away. This observation should help focus the discussion on ECDSA and Schnorr. (Side note: as unofficial Bitcoin security researcher, I still believe Bitcoin PoW is cooked due to the dwindling security budget.)
→ team quality: The folks at Google Quantum AI are the real deal. Craig Gidney (@CraigGidney) is arguably the world's top quantum circuit optimisooor. Just last year he squeezed 10x out of Shor for RSA, bringing the physical qubit count down from 10M to 1M. Special thanks to the Google team for patiently answering all my newb questions with detailed, fact-based answers. I was expecting some hype, but found none.
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nuconomy ↑ | ∑₿ retweetledi
nuconomy ↑ | ∑₿ retweetledi
We just verified all 50 of the earliest smart contracts ever deployed on Ethereum. 🎉
Over 11,000 $ETH is still sitting inside them.
Every one now has its source code, compiler, and history documented. Here's what we found inside Ethereum's first 48 hours. 🧵
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@icobeast @SerrDavee Timeline fell off a lot longer ago than that but definitely feeling the AI takeover.
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Find myself spending less and less time here.
Crypto content has basically gone to 0. Most crypto accounts have switched to normieslop or techslop or claude-written articles that are 700 words of empty nothingness about something random.
Barely ever see my friends’ posts because of all the constant algo changes, and there’s always some random person in my replies asking if a screenshot of a trade setup is an undisclosed shill 💀
Overall just an utterly terrible user experience.
This place was awesome 6 months ago (and even last month wasn’t too bad), but the last few weeks on here have been almost unusable
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Can’t believe we are still having this conversation all these years later.
decrypt.co/361446/sec-mos…
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nuconomy ↑ | ∑₿ retweetledi
Just insane timing on this Vanity Fair piece coming 1 day after Finzer delaying the SEA airdrop citing market conditions
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@punk9059 This is driving me insane.
If you’re interested, there is one other trick LLMs use to quietly increase engagement.
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Tokens that take forever to launch and offer endless farming opportunities tend not to do well when launched, even if the tech is good.
dfinzer.eth | opensea@dfinzer
an update on $SEA. the team has been building at full speed, and the foundation had planned to kick off the first steps as part of our march 30th event. but @openseafdn is pushing back the timeline. a delay is a delay. i’m not going to dress it up, and i know how it lands. the reality is that market conditions are challenging across crypto right now, and $SEA only launches once. @openseafdn could force the original date, or we could ensure every piece is in place and make this moment what this community deserves. we gave a tremendous amount of thought to how to do right here. I’m thankful to @HollanderAdam for bringing the community’s voice into every conversation. we’ll be doing the following: no more waves: the current rewards wave will be our last. optional fee refund: recognizing that we originally committed to a Q1 date, we’re offering refunds of the platform fees we retained while participating in the rewards waves (3 - 6) that followed our timing announcement. if you like, you can receive a refund of those fees, which when combined with treasure chest prizes, essentially means all of your trading during that period was on us. if you opt for a refund, the Treasures you were awarded during these waves will be removed from your account. details on this process will follow. honoring existing Treasures: for Treasures you continue to hold, our prior commitment stands: they will be meaningfully considered by the Foundation at TGE. this is independent from allocations for historical activity. 0% fees for 60 days: starting on march 31st, opensea will reduce our own token trading fees to 0%. we want to make it a no-brainer for everyone to experience our new platform: cross-chain token trading, mobile app, perps and more. after this 60 day period, we will put a new system in place that makes fees significantly more competitive for anyone trading consistently on opensea. product updates: while we’re postponing our march 30th event, we’ll host a separate one in the coming months focused on product updates. it’s been incredible to see the early responses to our mobile app, and we can’t wait to get it into more people’s hands. so if not now, wen? when we announced last year, it was too early. that created unnecessary uncertainty and reactivity. so when the Foundation sets a new timeline, it will be deliberate and specific. here’s why i’m confident that’s the right move: i’ve been building opensea for almost a decade. when this started, we were two people and the only thing you could trade on OS was cryptokitties. i’ve watched this space go from a niche curiosity to billions in volume to where we are today. the thing that’s carried us through every cycle was a willingness to make hard calls when it mattered. when our market crashed, we rebuilt from zero: an entirely new stack, a new product, and a new team culture. that hurt in the short term. but today OS2 is undeniably the strongest marketplace offering, and it’s the foundation everything sits on. we have huge ambitions as a company, and we’re here for the long game. making all of non-custodial crypto delightful on mobile is just the beginning. that means we have to set a very high bar for everything we do, and it’s why i’m so protective of delivering a launch that’s worthy of this community and everything we’re putting into this.
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