Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli
🚨BREAKING: Qatar just declared force majeure on LNG contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China.
For up to 5 years.
Here's what the CEO just told
In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of QatarEnergy just confirmed the damage from Iran's attack on Ras Laffan.
It's worse than anyone thought.
→ 2 out of 14 LNG trains damaged
→ 1 of 2 gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities damaged
→ 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG offline for 3-5 years
→ 17% of Qatar's total LNG export capacity gone
→ $20 billion annual revenue loss
→ $26 billion in damaged facilities (the CEO said they "should not be attacked")
QatarEnergy may declare force majeure on long term LNG supply contracts to:
→ Italy
→ Belgium
→ South Korea
→ China
For up to 5 years.
Additional exports declining:
→ Condensates: Down 24%
→ LPG: Down 13%
→ Naphtha: Down 6%
→ Sulphur: Down 6%
→ Helium: Down 14%
The damaged trains:
→ Train S4 and S6: 30% owned by ExxonMobil, rest by QatarEnergy
Production cannot restart until hostilities cease.
What this means?
12.8 million tonnes per year = 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity.
17% of its capacity just disappeared for 3-5 years.
Italy, Belgium, South Korea, China:
These countries had long-term contracts with Qatar.
Force majeure means those contracts are suspended.
They now have to compete in spot markets for replacement cargoes.
Against each other.
And against every other buyer scrambling for LNG.
$20 billion per year in lost revenue for Qatar.
$26 billion in facilities damaged.
The only country with capacity to absorb Qatari volumes at scale is the United States.
I wrote a full breakdown on how this shift benefits US LNG producers and which stocks are positioned to win from Qatar's structural supply loss👇
open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…
#Iran #Qatar #LNG
