Bran Stan

Yemen’s Ansar Allah, like its main backer Iran, has established contacts with al-Shabab and the Islamic State in Somalia, showing how pragmatism prevails when geopolitical goals demand it. @IbrahimJalalYE and Adnan al-Jabarni write. 📚carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/…

Amazon in talks to buy $9bn satellite group Globalstar in bid to rival Musk’s Starlink ft.trib.al/WdL5U2T

The fact that Iran wants neither the ceasefire nor the end of the Hormuz blockade still escapes the Trump's diplomatic corp.

President Trump may contradict himself twice a day, but deployment does not lie. The George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group is due to arrive in the Middle East in a week. The USS Boxer will arrive a day or two later. news.usni.org/2026/03/31/uss…

Putin backs "peaceful settlement" of Iran war in UAE call, Kremlin says cnn.com/2026/03/31/wor…

PR No.85/2026 Five-Point Initiative of China and Pakistan for Restoring Peace and Stability in the Gulf and Middle East Region (Beijing, March 31,2026)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… China is conducting diesel diplomacy, sending fuels to energy-starved neighbors such as the Philippines and Vietnam in opaque state arrangements. The US should not count on the Philippines to come to Taiwan's aid when it is receiving fuel from China.

2026 Warning 🚨: Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections 📉 Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% 🤯 After the midterms, all is well, but before? 🤔👀

China has exported cargoes of diesel and other fuels to energy-starved countries across Southeast Asia over the weekend, in what appears to be a signal of support despite export curbs imposed earlier this month bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Breaking News: The U.S. will allow a Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba, letting critical fuel in after months of what amounted to a blockade. nyti.ms/4ddfEEw

Positive signals are coming from Islamabad, where the Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan will meet on Sunday. Few are as well positioned as Saudi Arabia to end the escalation cycle.

Chinese research vessels are pursuing a vast seabed mapping and ocean-monitoring effort at strategically vital regions of the world’s oceans. The data is critical to submarine operations and anti-submarine warfare, according to naval experts reut.rs/3PpiMDu

Saudi Arabia views Iran as a serious long term threat, and reasonably so. While Iran could be 'finished' by the US Israeli coalition, it could, just as likely, survive the war and grow hostile toward Riyadh. Saudi Arabia can control its own fate and should not leave it to chances

Tehran offer for Riyadh is still on the table: reject the use of its air space and bases by US and Israeli force to avoid Iranian strikes. Qatar has barely been stricken for over a week. Turkey and Oman have encountered very few drones, allegedly false flag, since the war began.

Manila is grappling with a fuel and fertilizer shortage driven by the war in Iran. With Washington largely unavailable, they are turning to Beijing, which have the necessary resources and influences to help. Beijing could be demanding a lot in return.

reuters.com/business/energ… Ukraine and its European partners are doing everything they can to prevent Russia from reaping the benefits of the sanction waiver. Russia has run out of viable targets to hit inside Ukraine and will need to look elsewhere to restore deterrence.

aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/28… Yemen's Houthis have officially joined the war. All eyes should be on Yanbu, Saudi oil export terminal on the Red Sea which have been exporting 4 million barrels per day since the start of the war.

The 160 level is close to where Japan previously intervened in the forex market. The US 10-year Yield have increased ~50 basis points since the outset of the war in Iran and this will only exacerbate the bond sell off.

BREAKING 🚨: UBS UBS Bank has stopped withdrawals from its nearly $500 million real estate fund for up to 3 years 👻😱🚨 Blue Owl, BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, UBS... who's next?

COSCO vessels abort Strait of Hormuz transit attempt amid ongoing instability Following COSCO’s announcement to resume booking acceptance to Gulf destinations, new developments overnight suggest the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly unstable. According to #MarineTraffic data, two of its Ultra Large Container Vessels, CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean, attempted to transit the strait but turned back at approximately 03:20 and 03:50 UTC, indicating that safe passage could not be guaranteed. This marks the first attempted crossing by a major container carrier since the start of the conflict. Both vessels operate on COSCO’s MEX service, part of the Ocean Alliance network linking the Middle East with the Far East. COSCO, a Chinese carrier, is currently the world’s fourth-largest container shipping line by capacity.