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@WaxMetrix I bought some megas like a degenerate. Couldn’t help myself.

@O_Excess Finally got to checkout... a full 1hr 57min after drop. Pay screen pops up- boom, sold out! I'm shocked.

So you're saying there's a chance....

@WaxMetrix This is the mostly paper release?

Defied the odds on heritage - bought two boxes but this was in the first. Keeping the second sealed. Numbers are bad in this product but couldn’t help myself @WaxMetrix

@WaxMetrix the more accessible sets are being absolutely ravaged

2026 Topps Heritage Analysis & Deep Dive Topps Heritage, a popular set among set collectors, offers the perfect blend of nostalgia and .......***RECORD SCRAAAATCH***........ Yeah, no. That's not how we do it around here. That's not why you Watch the Squatch. If you want pretty little polished write-ups wrapped in a bow, there are a lot of places you can go for that. Around here we keep it real. If a product is great, I'll gladly let you know. If it sucks, I won't sugarcoat it. If you like your deep dives spicy, factual, and loaded with way too many numbers...you're in the right place. Welcome to 2026 Topps Heritage. First off, it doesn't matter how badly the odds sheet guy butchers the thing, I assure you I will sift through the madness and make sense of it, no matter how long it takes. But let’s not pretend... this odds sheet is a mess. And not the “oops we made a typo” kind. The “let’s chum the water so much maybe the sharks will miss the mark” kind. I'm not sure exactly what they're trying to hide because, by and large, 2026 Heritage is a near mirror image of 2025 Heritage. Oh yeah, except for one major thing. So I guess I do know what they're trying to hide. And yeah, we'll get there... If you enjoy content like this, please consider joining me on Substack, where I keep my entire archive of 100+ product deep dives in a much more navigable catalog. @slabsquatch" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@slabsquatch Part 1: Odds Sheet Autopsy Total cards in product: 2026 Heritage- 82,164,240 2025 Heritage- 85,588,580 YOY: -4% (Yes, minus. So now we know it's possible.) Also relevant, 2025 Heritage High production: 14,221,090 total cards. It's a different animal, the High Number checklist and all. This is the one where Topps experimented with releasing Hobby boxes only, resulting in 1/6th the production of a typical Heritage release. I'll come back to this. Total base production: 2026 Heritage- 70,914,620 2025 Heritage- 73,258,150 YOY: -3.2% Base card print run: 2026 Heritage- 236,382 copies ea 2025 Heritage- 183,145 copies ea Though production remains essentially stagnant, base cards per player rose considerably thanks to 100 less subjects on the base checklist. Total production by format: Hobby- 116,064 boxes (9,672 cases) +9.9% YOY Megas- 164,620 boxes (8,231 cases) +6.8% YOY Value- 332,640 boxes (8,316 cases) +12% YOY Hangers- 300,160 boxes (4,690 cases) -24.3% YOY Fat Packs- 470,556 packs (4,357 cases) +3.6% YOY Notice anything? Most formats are up… even though total card production is slightly down. This is made possible by stuffing less packs into boxes. Hobby: 24 packs ➤ 20 Value Boxes: 9 packs ➤ 8 Same price. Less product. More boxes. AKA revenue engineering. Hangers kept the same card count, so naturally that's the SKU that gets chopped significantly. Shocker. It's fine though, these Hangers are struggling anyway. They're certainly not bangers. And at this point, I can only presume Fat Packs still have 20 cards as I have not seen any details. If they come out blazing with 36 cards like Stadium Club did, I'll adjust accordingly. Part 2: What's Actually in the Box? Hobby: Autos- 1 per 8 boxes (Or 1.5 Autos/case) Relics- 0.85/box (~85% of boxes should contain a relic) Parallels- 28.6/box Inserts- 3.4/box Numbered cards- 0.6 (60% of boxes should contain a # card, not counting autos or relics) Mega: Autos- 1 per 17 boxes (1.2/case) Relics- 1 per 7 boxes (2.9/case) Parallels- 14.2/box Inserts- 1/box Numbered cards- 1 per 3.9 boxes Value Boxes: Autos- 1 per 72.5 boxes (1 per 1.8 cases) Relics- 1 per 7.9 boxes Parallels- 8.1/box Inserts- 1/box Numbered cards- 1 per 8.5 boxes Hangers: Autos- 1 per 185 boxes (1 per 2.9 cases) Relics- 1 per 28.3 boxes (2.3 per case) Parallels- 3/box Inserts- 1 per 2.3 boxes Numbered cards- 1 per 15.5 boxes Fat Packs: Autos- 1 per 454 packs (1 per 4.2 cases) Relics- 1 per 65.8 packs (1.6 per case) Parallels- 2/pack Inserts- 1 per 4 packs Numbered cards- 1 per 28.6 packs If you're paying attention, you can already spot the biggest change from 2025 to 2026. Autos are SPARSE. Poor Heritage has been pillaged. Now, we're not talking a Stadium Club level degloving, but disrespected, nonetheless. 2025 Heritage total Autos- 67,915 2026 Heritage total Autos- 31,520 YOY: -53.6% For a lower-end product, Heritage Real One autos have historically held surprising value, especially the hand-numbered Red Ink variety. Topps was kind enough to not print Heritage into oblivion, but we got a rug pull when it comes to autos. Numbered cards are tough in Heritage as well, but that's no surprise. There are a number of desirable Parallels & Variations that have low print runs but remain unnumbered. Part 3: Value Map Prices based on Hobby drop price of $120/box and MSRP on retail SKUs (Mega- $50, Value- $25, Hanger- $15, Fat Pack- $7). $/card: 1) Fat Pack- 35¢ 2) Mega- 37¢ 3) Value- 39¢ $/parallel 1) Value- $3.08 2) Mega- $3.52 3) Fat Pack- $3.78 $/Auto 1) Mega- $847 2) Hobby- $960 3) Value- $1812.25 $/# card 1) Mega- $193.50 2) Fat Pack- $200.20 3) Hobby- $206.90 Part 4: What Would the Squatch Do? I actually like Heritage. I like that you can actually buy some if you want it. I like that it's not sold out before you can add it to your cart. I like that it doesn't double in price, ever. I like that there are big chases. Seriously, there are some massive cards that will be pulled from this release: Ohtani, Judge, Bonds, Trout, Kurtz, Skenes, Roman, Caglianone, Jeter, Pujols- all show up in the auto checklist. If you want to partake in 2026 Heritage, I'm pretty confident in saying Hobby is not the best overall format. It's close, but Mega boxes offer more for the money, and not just junk parallels. Hobby does have access to the really scarce Patch Auto and Relic parallels that aren't found in Megas. So if you’re chasing pure ceiling, Hobby is still the move. But if you want a more reasonable, slightly less degenerate sweat, Megas hit the sweet spot, especially once Hobby settles in at $140-$150/box. For the sealed wax connoisseurs, I truly don't believe this product, left unripped, will increase in value enough to make it worthwhile. But if you really want to know what I would do.... If I'm playing in the Heritage realm, I'm seriously considering revisiting 2025 Heritage High: •6,172 total cases produced compared to 30,000+ •14.2m total cards compared to 82m+ •20,400 autos distributed among far less product (compared to 31,500 buried in a mountain of 2026 wax) •Still sitting around $125/box •Strong Auto checklist with less bloat •Red Ink odds 1:499 packs vs 1:1,575 for 2026 Hobby It's definitely not perfect. The High Number base checklist can seem pretty rough. which kills your chances at strong parallels and variations. And there are no Chrome Autos like in 2026. But I'm an odds guy at heart. And 2025 High Number blows 2026 out of the water in that regard. Part 5: Print Runs Highlights before I get into the numbers: 1) Among retail exclusive parallels, the scarcest are Dark Yellow/Aqua Sparkle from Fat Packs, and Light Purple/Burgundy Sparkle from Hangers. 2) I have two key print run anomalies to address. Odds are consistently long on Red Ink Autos across the board. According to the odds they are tougher even than they should be, resulting in the Print Run of each totaling only 28 copies inserted in the product. I have a hard time believing this since they are hand numbered to /77. The checklist for Real One Autos is reported to be 114 subjects. If, by chance, not all of these are available in Red Ink versions, this would explain the anomaly and all I need to do is correct the checklist size. But, if there are truly 114 subjects on the Red Ink checklist, then there are a serious amount being held back. I will revisit this if I get more clarification. 3) Similarly, Base Chrome Gold /50 Autos are only showing 11 copies each in the product. You can verify this by noticing how much tougher the odds are than the Orange Chrome Autos /25. Just know they're more scarce than 50 copies ea, likely due to some being held back, which is not uncommon. Unnumbered Parallels/Variations: Deckle Edge- 190 copies ea Dark Gray- 1,935 ea Flip Stock- 5 ea Black Border- 50 ea Dark Green- 1,460 ea Dark Yellow- 480 ea Light Purple- 580 ea Red Border- 1,400 ea Base Short Prints- 23,760 ea Base Chrome- 4,330 ea Chrome Refractors- 1,700 ea Chrome Light Blue Sparkle- 1,935 ea Pink Sparkle- 1,460 ea Aqua Sparkle- 480 ea Burgundy Sparkle- 580 ea Silver Sparkle- 1,400 ea Chrome SPs- 4,330 ea Chrome SP Refractors- 1,665 ea All-Star Logo Variations (20 card CL)- 1,740 ea Base Image Variations (50 card CL)- 1,740 ea Alternate Banner Variations (20 card CL)- 1,740 ea Nickname Variations (10 card CL)- 1,740 ea Throwback Jersey Variations (10 card CL)- 35 ea Black & White Image Variations (40 card CL)- 35 ea Inserts: Ready & Action! (25 card CL)- 16,430 ea The Enterprise (30 card CL)- 16,350 ea Raw Power (10 card CL)- 16,820 ea 1977 Topps Originals Buybacks (no checklist size noted)- 55,270 total distributed throughout product Autos: Real One Autos (114 card CL)- 210 ea Expansion Autos (8 card CL)- 200 ea Base Chrome Autos (13 card CL)- 45 ea 1977 Topps Award Winner Buyback Autos (no checklist size noted)- 460 total distributed throughout product Relics: Clubhouse Collection Relics (98 card CL)- 1,550 ea Real One Relics (50 card CL)- 280 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsHeritage

Think shohei is short printed maybe just on the /25 and below. So odds are pretty low. I’d have to run the numbers on how low but it ain’t good. I thought maybe he’d be make an appearance in all the serialized but that doesn’t seem to be the case from the anecdotal evidence coming in. Safe to say, calculating individual odds going forward will be mostly impossible.

@beanzpoker @Topps @O_Excess did you see this response from earlier?Thought you might be interested.

2025 Bowman's Best As you know, I had rave reviews for this product after analyzing the odds sheet. But let me add a dash of clarification, if you will. I still believe Bowman's Best is a strong product overall, even better than last year. However, @Topps’ method of attempting to accept my money for the product they produce is atrocious and borderline criminal. Would I have bought at $350/box? Gladly. Several boxes. Whether you're ripping or stashing, that price point works. Will I be buying at $600+/box, the current going rate? Absolutely not. And I hate that my LCS is forced to charge that because they can’t get product themselves at a reasonable price. It's selling, so who can blame them? Fanatics has the hobby right where they want us. We’re expected to feel lucky buying direct because they have the “best deals in town,” yet it’s become nearly impossible to do so on even marginally popular releases. Meanwhile, some of the very shops that helped build this hobby long before Fanatics arrived are getting squeezed out. Some of my favorite people on the planet are my LCS owners. They’re as fair and hard-working as any small business owner can be, and they sell as much Topps product as anyone. With the system Fanatics has implemented for new releases, I’ve been forced to spend thousands less per year with them because they simply can’t compete with Topps’ direct pricing. It pains me to see local shops used as pawns in a multi-billion-dollar game of chess. I’m quick to give Topps credit where it’s due. They do a lot of things right. But I can’t remember a time I’ve been more disgusted with them. They have the ability to fix this. I just don’t think they want to. @CardPurchaser #thehobbyneedssomehelp #SlabSquatchAnalytics #comeonFanatics

@4CardsOnly @Topps Ya - super short print plus the odds of those autos generally were misprinted and never corrected

@O_Excess @Topps Crazy, I’ve been scouring and only seen the BYB super and one auto/25 currently on The Bay. Topps gon Topps!!

Welp - my post about odds seems a bust as the best performers auto seems to be a case hit or worse and not the 1:21 published odds. Please @Topps - review and update your odds sheet - you have to get these things correct If you hit a best performers auto let me know.

I ordered 40 of these and they all had major issues. In general the living collections have not been consistently poorer quality. To Topps credit they did accept the defect submission.

@GrandSalamiSC For sure and the best performance autos are still at least 10x off the published odds (1:21 packs) and Topps has been tagged several times about it by both large and small accounts. At least issue a statement or change the odds sheets so people aren’t wrecked

I definitely think Topps needs to make it clear in the checklist if a guy is short printed this significantly compared to other players in the same checklist. It completely changes the value equation for player breaks. People been spending probably 3x what they would’ve if they knew about this ahead of time

Anyone else notice there is only one Roman Anthony Best of 2025 auto listed on eBay? And it’s a red x-fractor (redemption.) Would be very frustrating if he only had super low number parallels. Totally changes the value dynamic of Red Sox and PYP spots.

👀Think we'll be seeing a few record sports card sales this year. espn.com/mlb/story/_/id…

@hobbymonitor Ya - I won’t be posting any more player odds. They also botched the best performance auto odds by at least 10x. Still listed incorrectly on their website. So good call on the shohei but it’s actually much bigger than that

This seems likely. Beware buying Red Sox spots at current prices… I avoid larger spots on release day for this very reason.

Sorry folks - I deleted my ohtani chase post. The published odds on the Topps odds are definitely wrong. Not sure if an accident by them or on purpose but it changes the entire outlook of the product. The best performance autos look like a super short print though they are published at around 4 per case.

@4CardsOnly @Topps Ya - sucks - just deleted. No more trusting Topps

@O_Excess @Topps I've opened 2. Have watched 6 case breaks and I think you should delete that Ohtani post :)

@4CardsOnly @Topps That’s a beauty - single box?

@O_Excess @Topps

After watching some breaks I think the odds sheet is pretty fictional at this point. I've seen zero best performance autos in the four case breaks I've seen which are supposed to be 1:21 packs.

Ya - I know that’s a real possibility - that’s why I added the assumption disclaimer. That’s a very real possibility. So if they eliminate the base auto and only the parallels remain, the odds will obviously be much lower. But then, if the odds are arbitrary or misleading what’s the point of any of these calculations.

I disagree with your assumption that Ohtani would be equally weighted to others in his card set. It would not be unusual for Ohtani to only have parallel auto versions and not base or less rare versions like the /99. “Some Caution: I am assuming players have consistent odds w/ what is published by Topps. In the past, we’ve seen particular players end up w/ different odds than what was published”

@937_sports96533 @CardPurchaser @OffDaHook35 Really helpful! - just a few things I notice. Nationals are lowest w/ rips society it seems. I know I bought into a pirates that was lower than the labeled green one unless you are using just the ones that are still open. Probably a few others. Still awesome and much appreciated!

Final 2025 Bowman's Best cost breakdown These are all on Fanatics Live @CardPurchaser @OffDaHook35

@937_sports96533 @CardPurchaser @OffDaHook35 This is great - do you do this for all releases? Manual or do you automate it with an llm agent?

Updated 2025 Bowman's Best Breaking Guide @CardPurchaser @OffDaHook35