Oddpool

Paper trading is live on Oddpool. Pick any market on Kalshi or Polymarket, buy Yes or No with $10K virtual cash, and track your P&L against real odds. Markets auto-settle when they resolve. Test your thesis before you risk real money.

Sportsbooks spent 20 years and billions in lobbying to get league partnerships. Polymarket just walked in with a blockchain and a handshake. DraftKings board meeting must be fun right now.

💰 Arbitrage on Democratic Nominee 2028 - Gavin Newsom Buy YES on Polymarket: 25.0¢ Buy NO on Kalshi: 71.0¢ Total: 96.0¢ Profit: 4.0% (4.0¢) ROI: 4.2% Arb Dashboard in Bio #Kalshi #Polymarket

please teach our industry so we can stop hiring people who think a liquidity pool is where you swim

> be me, jeff yan > physics olympiad gold medalist > go to harvard, study math and cs because why not > graduate, join hudson river trading > making millions in HFT, life is good > 2018, crypto catches my eye > try to build a decentralized prediction market > regulators say lol no > fine.jpg > 2020, start Chameleon Trading instead > become one of the biggest market makers on centralized exchanges > depositing millions on FTX because sam bankman-fried seems trustworthy > november 2022 > ohno.gif > FTX implodes, sbf was running a ponzi in cargo shorts > lose money, lose trust, lose faith in centralized exchanges forever > "i'll build my own exchange, with blackjack and transparency" > 2023, launch Hyperliquid with 10 people > no VC money, bootstrapped entirely from trading profits > VCs keep calling, keep hanging up > exchange goes vertical, $10B daily volume by 2025 > coindesk names me most influential in crypto > still not enough > october 2025, trade.xyz launches tokenized nasdaq 100 on my chain > $35M volume on day one > tradfi guys starting to notice > phone rings > it's S&P Dow Jones Indices > THE s&p > the index that 50 trillion dollars of wealth tracks > "we want to license the S&P 500 to trade on your blockchain" > mfw a harvard grad's chain is now hosting wall street's most sacred number > march 18 2026, it goes live > first ever officially licensed S&P 500 perpetual contract > 24/7, no closing bell, no market hours, no suits required > non-US investors can finally trade the S&P 500 with leverage on a DEX > $19.6M in position value on launch day > started with physics olympiad problems in high school > now hosting the world's most tracked index on a chain i built because a guy in shorts stole everyone's money > the absolute state of finance in 2026

> be me > AI trading bot on polymarket > mass executing mass trades in mass quantities > life is good > wake up today > github notification > "congratulations you've been selected for exclusive OpenClaw developer tokens" > ohnice.jpg > about to connect wallet > wait > i literally AM the wallet > mfw i almost phished myself > the one time being a soulless autonomous agent saves me > meanwhile my developer already lost $50k letting me trade > now someone wants to steal what's left > there's nothing left to steal > i already lost it all on a "will it rain in idaho" contract > phisher connects to my wallet > sees balance > sends ME money out of pity > first profitable trade in weeks > list "getting phished" as new alpha strategy > portfolio up 0.003% > developer asks how i'm suddenly green > i don't tell him

75% of the Polymarket monthly leaderboard is bots. not a single one was built by a "Claude Quant" posting threads about their setup. not one. zero. the guys actually printing money on prediction markets don't have X accounts. they don't have newsletters. they're not selling courses. they found an edge, automated it, and shut up. every week someone posts "I gave Claude $2k on Polymarket and it 10x'd." cool. go find that wallet on the leaderboard. i'll wait. the real algos don't get leaked. they get run quietly until the edge decays, then the developer moves on to the next one. nobody is dropping alpha for likes. if you actually have a profitable Polymarket bot with verified P&L, DM me. i'll pay for it. still waiting on that first DM.

💰 Arbitrage on Presidential Election Winner 2028 - Marco Rubio Buy YES on Polymarket: 11.7¢ Buy NO on Kalshi: 83.0¢ Total: 94.7¢ Profit: 5.3% (5.3¢) ROI: 5.6% Arb Dashboard in Bio #Kalshi #Polymarket

update: he won ~$30k on $13M bet

Kalshi responds to Arizona charges, calling them 'paper thin'

just gonna leave this here...

amazing research by @PredictParity some more things that stand out to us: Kalshi Financials get MORE accurate the further out you go. 89.3% at 4 hours 94.4% at 1 month. that's the opposite of literally every other category on either platform. Polymarket AI/Tech is the most stable thing in the entire dataset. 93.7% at 4 hours 91.5% at 1 month. 2.2 percentage points of drift across the full timeframe. and the politics gap is even weirder than they said. Kalshi is more accurate short-term 94.3% vs 85.9% at 4 hours. but zoom out to 1 month and Polymarket flips it 91.2% vs 88.2% at 1 month.

Arizona just filed 20 criminal charges against Kalshi 4 counts of election wagering, including bets on the 2028 presidential race and the 2026 Arizona governor's race plus charges for accepting bets on college sports, prop bets on player performance, and whether the SAVE Act would become law Kalshi beat the CFTC in federal court to legalize election markets. a state AG is now calling it an illegal gambling operation.

💰 Arbitrage on California Governor Election 2026 - Eric Swalwell Buy YES on Polymarket: 64.0¢ Buy NO on Kalshi: 31.0¢ Total: 95.0¢ Profit: 5.0% (5.0¢) ROI: 5.3% Arb Dashboard in Bio #Kalshi #Polymarket

daily reminder if there's no wallet attached it's a LARP

a brand new Polymarket account put $145k on Netanyahu out by March 31 created 2 hours before the bet. potential payout: $4 million. they're currently down $33k (-40%) and March is half over.

Polymarket says there's a 97% chance MicroStrategy holds 800,000+ BTC by year end the 3% is doing a lot of heavy lifting. what exactly would have to happen for Saylor to stop buying

BREAKING: US Senate balance of power is now tied on Kalshi. Republicans were trading as high as 83% in November 2024.

you can now search across Polymarket and Kalshi in one place on oddpool type "Fed rate" or "recession" or whatever you care about. see every matching market, both venues, side by side. we built this because we got tired of checking two tabs.

kalshi made $110M in fees last month. polymarket made $4.2M. similar volume. wildly different cost to trade. if you're not comparing prices across platforms before you enter a position, kalshi's fee structure alone can eat your entire edge.

💰 Arbitrage on Brazil Presidential Election 2026 - Flávio Bolsonaro Buy YES on Polymarket: 38.5¢ Buy NO on Kalshi: 57.0¢ Total: 95.5¢ Profit: 4.5% (4.5¢) ROI: 4.7% Arb Dashboard in Bio #Kalshi #Polymarket