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btcismeme
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btcismeme
@offermemoneyXYZ
目标是A9 知而不行,是为不知. "If you are going through hell, keep going."
Safari Katılım Şubat 2025
1.9K Takip Edilen294 Takipçiler
Cerebras Systems（NASDAQ: CBRS）的 IPO 最终发行价已经正式确定。最终发行价：$185.00 / 股
这一定价远高于此前的发行区间：
最初区间：$115–125
上调后区间：$150–160
据报道本次 IPO 获得了超过 20 倍超额认购。🤭
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You know what’s crazy?
This dude
Kevin Xu
Has 3x more followers than me.
I have 4 mill more than him and a CAGR way above his.
He charges 200 per month for his “ideas”
I charge nothing.
Yet I’m way below his follower count.
Bro, why are you charging that much if you have that much?
What am I missing?
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btcismeme retweetledi
btcismeme retweetledi
很多股票在过去一个月里从底部完成了 100% 的涨幅，关注它们，强者恒强。
TraderGoku@tradergokux
如果你想抓住一只 1000% 涨幅的股票，就去已经上涨 100% 的股票里找。 因为所有 1000% 的赢家，都必须先走完那第一个 100%。 别在弱势股里浪费子弹。强势股，才能带来复利。 $MU $SNDK $RKLB $PL $IREN $HOOD
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Do you believe in the power of light? 🫡
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X.... With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity. In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. While overall optical market reaches $154B. Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: -> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. -> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries. -> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. My contrarian thought process on current players: Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.
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@vikingeatmoon1 好奇现在还有名额吗？我虽然炒股赚赚亏亏，但是也在坚持每个月在微信公益上捐款（我现在捐的是春苗）。虽然已经跟着老师推特在学习了，但是如果有机会也希望可以帮助需要帮助的人。看到“今后愿意以每年所有股票账户利润的至少2%支持一个助学机构”心动了。谢谢老师
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今天最大的失误，就是参与了HIMS的财报赌博。不仅把自己原本不错的日内收益回吐了不少，也让一些信任我的网友跟着承受了不必要的损失。财报交易本质上属于低确定性的事件驱动，结果往往超出预期，方向和波动都很难准确判断。在日内交易中，这种额外损耗是非常伤的，往往需要很多笔稳定盈利才能弥补回来。
这次再次提醒我，今后还是要坚持只做自己最熟悉、胜率最高的 pattern，不再轻易赌财报。尤其是散户高度聚集的热门股票，容易被华尔街利用，常常与基本面和常识脱节。与其提前下注，不如等财报公布之后，根据实际价格走势和市场反应再寻找更确定的机会。
我在电话会议期间尝试参与的“小反弹”也已经及时止损。交一点学费并不可怕，重要的是吸取教训，严格执行纪律，避免今后再犯同样的错误。🙏🙏
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btcismeme retweetledi
这个信息对我的粉丝非常重要。我系统看MU到800-835就会被dump。而这个日期就在本周。我不建议乱做空，but protect your profit。
DegenQuant@BruceCMaster
IMO the best and most surprising proxy trade for Cerebras IPO: sell $MU/$DRAM. Cerebras use zero HBM. Second best is to long $VICR/$DGXX. So the long/short version I like is to long VICR short MU. Maybe need $MU to touch 1T to fade.
中文
Agreed. Not saying we don't need memory or CPO names but as OG said the market needs a reason to cool down and $CRBS could be the one. Trade is trade. Invest is invest.
DegenQuant@BruceCMaster
IMO the best and most surprising proxy trade for Cerebras IPO: sell $MU/$DRAM. Cerebras use zero HBM. Second best is to long $VICR/$DGXX. So the long/short version I like is to long VICR short MU. Maybe need $MU to touch 1T to fade.
English
May 11 4:00 AM EST Watchlist
Potential multi-day runners:
$MRAM – Strong Friday after-hours runner with momentum continuing after recent gains. Traders are watching for follow-through driven by ongoing earnings strength, semiconductor and next-generation memory technology interest, and the company’s recent 10-year manufacturing agreement with Microchip, which adds significant credibility to the long-term growth story.
$RXT – Another notable after-hours mover, benefiting from renewed AI and cloud infrastructure momentum. Traders are focused on improving Q1 profitability, reaffirmed guidance, and the newly announced multiyear strategic AI partnership with AMD, which could support further upside and a potential multi-day continuation.
$HIMS – All eyes are on today’s Q1 earnings report. Traders are watching for continued strong revenue and subscriber growth, accelerating expansion in the GLP-1 weight-loss business, and bullish full-year guidance. A meaningful beat with positive commentary could trigger another sharp move higher.
$CRCL – Earnings are also due premarket, with traders focused on transaction volume growth, stablecoin adoption trends, and continued expansion of Circle’s digital payments ecosystem. Strong results and upbeat guidance could renew momentum.
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@aleabitoreddit ppl are saying $CRBS could dampen future CPO demand. What is your take sensei?
English
Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon?
IntelliEPI CEO (Q1 2026 ER):
"The InP substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure"
Digitimes: "Taiwan's IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage"
I said as photonics ramps: There was going to be a major InP bottleneck as all the next-gen AI architectures go optical.
This was most goated call with AXT as the upstream chokepoint.
I'm usually a few months ahead of time, but they play out directionally.
While I'm sitting in existing bottlenecks up 1800%+, I'm long CPO as the next major supercycle.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Thanks, we might not see a InP substrate bottleneck yet, but we’ll likely see it when hyperscaler ASICs (TPU, Trainium, Maia, etc.) ramp up -> supply strains like memory mid-2026. That doesn’t quite mean material providers should be valued like $LITE, but the fact that the entire future AI buildout has a single point of failure that comes from a small $600m company like $AXTI is amusing.
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@MrMicopedia 是的唐神 当散户太多的时候机构就要洗掉一些才好拉盘。 我觉得hims的官司和解就像之前goog的反垄断官司结束那个时刻，虽然类比可能不合适，但是趋势应该会相似🤭
中文
@offermemoneyXYZ 对 它是比较稳健的 它唯一的问题就是散户中知名度太大了 很多散户持有 不像上周每天起爆的都是没有太大名气的 这个会增加华尔街迷惑性操盘的可能性
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感觉HIMS的技术面适合赌财报 营收和指引也大概率是超预期的 尤其是前段时间和NVO官司和解之后 前景比较乐观 至于华尔街肯不肯拉就只能听天由命了 🤭
中文
刚才和朋友在讨论一个关于ai和半导体投资未来的问题，大概产生了以下的一些不成熟的想法，欢迎大家讨论：
论点一：Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的估值是否存在结构性上限
前沿闭源大模型的 ARR 增长不会是无上限的，核心理由是能力的下沉速度快于付费意愿的上升速度。
历史上看，开源模型与前沿闭源模型的能力差距正在系统性收窄。2021 年 BLOOM-176B 这种规模的模型完全可以称为弱智，但今天类似大小的开源模型已经能在大多数实际任务上达到当年顶级模型的水准。Gemma、Qwen、Llama 等模型也印证了一个规律，就是今天的 SOTA，大约 12–18 个月后就是开源 baseline。架构改进、数据质量、post-training 技巧的复利效应，使得参数量本身越来越不是核心瓶颈。
这意味着市场会出现明显的" that's already enough"分层。因为不是所有用户都需要最前沿的能力，对很多场景（客服、文案、基础代码）来说，落后前沿一代甚至两代的模型已经完全够用，而且更便宜。
往前推演：如果 2028 年端侧小模型在 agent 能力上能达到今天 Claude 的水平，而今天的 Claude 在编码等任务上已经足够胜任大量真实工作，那么前沿闭源模型的市场会被持续侵蚀。前沿模型仍会有付费用户，但增长曲线会受限于真正需要前沿能力的边际场景，这是一个比“所有 AI 使用者"小得多的池子。
反过来说，前沿训练成本是指数级上升的：下一代训练 run 可能需要百亿美元级别的资本开支。前沿 lab 的商业模式本质上是在和开源追赶速度赛跑，必须在能力被下沉之前完成 monetization。这种结构决定了估值不可能按互联网平台型公司的逻辑无限外推。
论点二：半导体行业的超高速发展期是否有上限，端侧化是否会重塑算力需求结构
我认为未来端侧推理会成为一个明确的趋势，至少有三个独立的驱动力叠加：
第一，模型能力的下沉让本地运算变得可行。参数量门槛在降低，端侧硬件 TOPS 在上升，两条曲线正在交汇。
第二，延迟敏感场景天然倾向端侧，直播、游戏、实时渲染、AR/VR 这类应用，云端往返的延迟是物理上无法克服的瓶颈，只能就地推理。
第三，数据安全和隐私，尤其是企业端的敏感数据、医疗、金融场景，本地推理是合规层面的硬需求，不是偏好问题。
如果端侧推理的占比持续上升，那么云端推理的需求增速会被实质性蚕食。这件事的连锁反应是：大规模数据中心的新增建设需求会从今天的爆发式增长进入边际放缓，数据中心 GPU、机架、电力、HBM、光模块、连接器，这一整条 capex 链的增速都会承压。
还有毛利率结构问题，今天半导体的高估值很大程度上建立在数据中心业务的极高毛利率之上，企业端客户对单位算力的支付能力远高于消费端。即使端侧渗透带来的总半导体出货量增长能部分对冲数据中心的放缓，消费级 SoC、NPU、edge accelerator 的毛利率天花板远低于 datacenter GPU。需求从高毛利端向低毛利端迁移本身就是 margin compression 的过程，市场对应给的估值倍数也不应该一样。
所以即使半导体总量不收缩，结构性的 mix shift 也意味着行业的盈利质量和估值天花板都需要重新定价。超高速发展期的终结，不一定表现为需求崩塌，更可能表现为增速正常化 + 毛利率均值回归的双重压力。
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