Asmund
187 posts
总有人说，“有了AI就能做所有的软件，SaaS必然会死掉，可以彻底替代程序员”，结果一看产出的内容，全是小表单、小前端、贪吃蛇、小App、小助手，
我问，Zoom挣这么多钱，你怎么不做一个Zoom出来？你知道Zoom的架构吗？Zoom如何做到encoder和decoder在不同架构、不同CPU/GPU、不同设备上适配？ 如何做到streaming流畅？如何做到滤镜、抠图、背景、美颜和设置同步？如何做全球分布式处理streaming？如何降低延迟？如何做卡顿的处理？
这王八蛋彻底不说话了。
我反复讲，99%的人，如果不长期深入从事某个行业，他连提出问题、定义问题的能力都没有。
当你不是从业者，没有提出问题、定义问题的能力，
哪怕你有LLM Agent帮你完成coding工作，你大脑空空，经验空白，认知空缺，只看见个壳子，整个system design到所有模块所有细节一问三不知，
你什么也做不出来，你只能撇着大嘴，
“给我写个zoom出来”
“给我写个搜索引擎出来”
“给我写个meta出来”
“快给我从头设计规划实现一个Windows操作系统”
无视天量复杂模块和设计细节，觉得“有了AI Agent=可以替代所有程序员”，这种就是纯种大傻逼。
（未完待续）
中文
内塔尼亚胡今天又出现了。
这次不是咖啡馆——是站在以色列山间，和两个女孩合影，其中一个穿着军装。
配文："遵守规则，一起赢。"
视频122秒，户外集会，本人发言，希伯来文字幕。
死亡谣言，六根手指谣言。
他的回应方式是继续出现。
Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו@netanyahu
שומרים על ההנחיות ומנצחים ביחד >>
中文
刚刚，川普威胁如果中国不护舰霍尔木兹海峡，就推迟特习会。
中共外交部战狼发言人反唇相讥，左右打脸川普，他说：中国并没主动邀请川普来访，是川普多次宣称和习主席是好朋友，美方多次请求中方给予安排特朗普拜访习主席，中方才勉强安排。
如果美方不想来那就别来，好好在美国呆着。
中方船只一直以来在海峡畅通无阻，没有护航需求，是美方破坏了地区和平与稳定，搬起石头砸自己的脚还沦为国际笑话。
目前川普除了求中国护航外，也求了德、法、英、日、韩等国，据我所知，没有一个国家答应美方无理要求。
日本已正式拒绝川普的请求，不会向霍尔木兹海峡派遣军舰联合护航。
目前加拿大、英国、法国、德国、意大利、西班牙均明确拒绝，传统盟友没有一个帮忙。这是二战后美国外交、战争最孤立的一次，即使韩战、越战、海湾战争、911后的阿富汗战争，所有盟友都在美国身边。
现在川普威胁“北约会更糟”也没用。
因为在川普威胁吞并加拿大、格陵兰，出卖乌克兰、欧洲给俄罗斯，加天量关税时比对俄罗斯、中共还狠时，北约已经死了。
发动战争不和盟友商量，现在需要盟友帮忙擦屁股时才想起来盟友了？晚了！
川普被以色列绑架，为了废除中期选举，利用战争终身当总统，已经把自己和美国带进粪坑了！全世界陪葬！
中文
According to CENTCOM and recent reports, the US has now taken out all four Shahid Soleimani-class corvettes. Iran's combined naval forces (regular navy + IRGC) started 2026 with roughly 95-110 vessels total. After 20+ confirmed losses in the ongoing strikes, they have around 70-85 left, mostly smaller patrol boats, missile craft, and submarines.
English
Musk, CEO of Tesla and xAI, has said AGI will come this year.
English
Two days ago I wrote that the most dangerous signal in this war was not what Iran was hitting but what it was not hitting. Desalination plants. Eight of the ten largest on earth sit on the Arabian Peninsula. One hundred million people drink what they produce. Iran had the coordinates and the capability. It was choosing restraint. The restraint was the weapon. And the hand that held the leash was dead.
The leash just snapped.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X on March 7 that the United States struck a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island with missiles launched from its base in Bahrain. He said water supply to 30 villages was cut. His exact words: “The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.”
That sentence is the most dangerous statement issued by any government official since this war began.
No independent verification exists. No satellite imagery. No Pentagon confirmation or denial. CNN, BBC, and Reuters report it as an Iranian accusation. The claim is unverified. That does not make it less dangerous. What matters is not whether the strike happened. What matters is that Iran has publicly framed a desalination attack as an American precedent.
Precedent is permission. Iran struck a US base in Bahrain within hours, framed as retaliation for the desalination hit. Whether the original strike was real or fabricated, the rhetorical architecture for targeting Gulf water plants is now constructed. The thirty one autonomous IRGC commands possess a publicly articulated rationale for striking desalination facilities anywhere in the Gulf.
Kuwait gets 90 percent of its drinking water from desalination. Oman 86 percent. Saudi Arabia 70 percent. The UAE 42 percent. These are not countries with backup rivers. These are not populations with alternative wells. The entire human habitability of the Arabian Peninsula depends on machines that convert seawater into freshwater, running continuously, at massive scale, connected to power grids and intake pipes that are among the softest targets in any military theater.
In 1991 Iraq pumped crude oil into Kuwait’s desalination intakes. Recovery took years. The Gulf in 2026 is orders of magnitude more dependent, and the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Emergency tanker imports face the same insurance withdrawal that stopped oil tankers. The redundancy that was supposed to protect water supply depends on shipping lanes that no longer function.
Gulf states deployed Patriot batteries around major plants after the accusation. Intake pipes have underwater sensors. Cyber defenses are air gapped. But the defense faces the same arithmetic: 93 percent success across a thousand drones still means 70 impacts. One impact on a military base is absorbable. One impact on a desalination intake shuts down water supply to millions.
The restraint is over. The precedent, real or fabricated, is set. And the hundred million people whose survival depends on desalination plants within range of Iranian missiles are now living inside the targeting envelope of a doctrine that just lost its last constraint.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
Everyone is watching the oil. Nobody is watching the water. The UAE operates at 1,533% water stress. Saudi Arabia at 974%. Kuwait gets 90% of its drinking water from desalination plants. Oman 86%. Saudi Arabia 70%. There is no aquifer. There is no river. There is no rainfall to speak of. The entire Arabian Peninsula drinks water that is manufactured, using electricity, from the sea. One drone. One plant. Millions without water. That is not speculation. That is what a 2009 US diplomatic cable concluded about Riyadh specifically: destroy the right desalination infrastructure and you could force the evacuation of the Saudi capital within a week. That cable is 17 years old. The dependency has only deepened since. Iran has not hit a desalination plant yet. That restraint is a choice. It is also a card. Here is the strategic geometry Iran is living inside right now. Its navy is gone. Its air force is degraded. Its supreme leader is dead. Its missile rate has dropped 70% as launchers get destroyed. Every conventional military option is being systematically closed. What remains is asymmetric warfare against infrastructure that the entire Gulf coalition cannot function without. You do not need to win an air war to win an asymmetric war. You need to hit the thing your enemy cannot replace on any timeline that matters. Oil can be rerouted. Gas can be replaced. Water in the Arabian desert cannot be improvised. The GCC has built redundancies since this vulnerability was identified. But redundancies are not immunity. And Iran knows exactly where every plant sits. The oil war is being priced. The water war has not even entered the model yet. If it does, this conflict has a second act that makes the first one look contained. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
English
特朗普现在的的三个选择
1/ 从伊朗撤退，并永远失去中东，以色列被摧毁
2/ 派遣地面部队参战，失去成千上万的美国士兵
3/ 用核武器轰炸伊朗，冒着全球毁灭的风险
干得好啊
真的是Make America Great Again
中文
#美国伊朗战争
川普准备派部队占领伊朗。
美国快速反应部队（IRF）第82空降师，已经进入高度戒备，能够在接到通知后18小时内执行空降部署任务，无需事先预警。 这引发了国防部内部的猜测： 这些士兵可能会被派往中东，参与对伊朗的战争。
中文
伊朗反击最狠的一招，未必是打军事基地
是海底那 5 条光纤电缆
这些电缆承载了全球 37% 的互联网流量
它们穿过红海
穿过霍尔木兹海峡
就在这片战争核心区域的正中间
2024 年胡塞武装部分切断过
东非和东南亚部分地区的网络一夜之间出现大规模中断
现在伊朗
有革命卫队海军
有具备攻击基础设施能力的网络部队
也清楚这些海底电缆的具体线路
全球几十亿人的网络连接过这些通道
印度 巴基斯坦 阿联酋 沙特 埃及 希腊 意大利
一旦海底电缆被切断，修复时间通常是数周
所以，伊朗会去切么？
中文
@Lawrenc01145385 @kw666_2006 真傻迫，美军打伊朗不是用来震撼你的，我跟你讨论有没有被美军震撼到，感觉跟你一样智商
中文
@ofspringbreeze @kw666_2006 如果对方统帅阵亡＝阵营失去战斗力，那确实震撼。但问题是斩首成功之后伊朗没有失去战斗力，反倒把整个中东拉下水，还暴打了一顿美军基地，让美军基地在全球的地位动摇，这我觉得更震撼
中文
