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@oilin60
MPAS, 35 yrs trading oil, owning our trades not our forecasts, there is a trade every day but we don't need to trade every day, 🚫 investment advice
The BIG Lake Katılım Aralık 2021
276 Takip Edilen2.9K Takipçiler
United Airlines bracing for $175/barrel and minimum $100/bbl through 2027 #OOTT
Prime@nucleusprime
#BREAKING 🇺🇸United Airlines CEO just told employees the quiet part out loud: Oil hitting $175/barrel. Not back to $100 until end of 2027. That’s not a crisis projection. That’s a 2-year business plan built around permanent energy disruption. SAS already cancelled 1,000 flights. More European carriers following. Now America’s second-largest airline is planning for $175 oil as the baseline. Airlines run on 2-3% margins. Fuel is 20-25% of costs. The Iran war doesn’t end when the bombs stop. United Airlines just told its employees it lasts until at least 2028.
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ULSD - I-RAN SO FAR AWAY! ..... no one is FLOCKING to disty with a $95/bbl crack and $4.6 handle on spot, in fact open interest is down about 30% since silly season started with a good chunk of that commercial traders exiting, no need to hedge and more importantly no need to get wrecked, the fun is going to be the other side of this, ALWAYS watch more than you trade #OOTT
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@crudechronicle Contango serves one purpose, it allows for the storage and hedging of unwanted bbls at the front to be used later.
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@crudechronicle Backwardation serves one purpose, it brings bbls to the front where they are needed
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Oil futures curve is about as good at predicting future spot price as Fed dot plots are at rate policy, and yet we always quote both as certainty.
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward price is going way up
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@FreightWaves @BreakthroughNA It’s tough to make predictions especially about the future
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Energy markets analysts like Matt Muenster of @BreakthroughNA expected a crude surplus and lower diesel prices.
Instead, geopolitical shocks and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz have pushed markets into volatility again.
Matt breaks down how it could impact trucking on the latest What The Truck?!? with Malcolm & The Dude.
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OIL - WATCHING! ….. most of the time watching doesn’t help much in terms of what could happen but it tells you exactly what has happened (DUH?), OI in CL&ULSD has actually fallen about -105k contracts since the party started with 85% concentrated in withdrawal of commercial sellers, that makes sense, why get creamed with your hedges on an outsized spike, it represents
latent selling on the sidelines and when the coast is clear they will be back, it’s kinda like hard liquor at a frat party, you know by the end of the night it’s going to come out and if you are a long oil trader you know it’s going to hurt you. #OOTT
GIF
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OIL - WATCH! ….. another week and the sun will be in the EYE OF THE CROCODILE, don’t let it get you! Watching here is the safest bet #OOTT
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Another casualty of war?
-Crude Oil futures
Chris Martenson@chrismartenson
FT confirming that people inside the oil trading business were wondering who the mysterious "big seller' was of oil futures. Rigging markets is both illegal and dangerous. If the US loses its position as a legit place to conduct business, it will be because of its tendency to lie, cheat, and steal.
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@IliaBouchouev Warned about that last week, CL OI lower since this the fireworks started, so …… #OOTT
GIF
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Collapsing liquidity in refined product futures cud have major implications. Asian jet traded $225/bbl - possibly the highest price ever paid for oily product. If refineries start stopping out on short hedges because of margin calls and can't sell futures, then who will?
#OOTT
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Gotta love Jeff #OOTT
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
🚨NO POLICY MOVE CAN STOP CRUDE’S RISE: CARLYLE ENERGY Jeff Currie, says no policy move can stop crude’s rise, even with a Middle East ceasefire. Supply-chain disruptions—from misplaced ships, canceled insurance, and slowed output in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE—will take months to fix. He called oil reserve releases a “minuscule offset” to the ongoing disruption.
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OIL - MEMORIES ….. forecasts for $40/bbl and 2026 surplus of +2-4mbd, cue the bbl counters and talking heads #OOTT
GIF
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OIL - THE GAP BAND ….. runaway, breakaway …… and…… exhaustion? #OOTT
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