Oscar Mesa retweetledi
Oscar Mesa
4.2K posts
Oscar Mesa
@ojmesa
Profesor Titular Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Medellín, Colombia Katılım Temmuz 2010
478 Takip Edilen987 Takipçiler
La hidroelectricidad cuenta?
Juan Ricardo@juanortega3
@andrescamachom_ @petrogustavo @PactoCol Por transparencia porque no le explicas a los Colombianos cuántos gigawat hora se generaron en 2025 de solar. De los 82 mil consumidos? Y la falta de energía estimada para 27 y 28 de los 6000gwh al año q se requieren que potencia instalada de solar requeriría con el 20% de FP?
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Mi columna de hoy en @eltiempo, Gaslight, sobre la política que manipula con el propósito de enloquecer, de hacer cree que lo que se está viendo -la debacle de la salud, por ejemplo- no está ahí:
eltiempo.com/opinion/column…
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Mi columna de El Espectador: Geografía de la maldad.
A propósito de las diversas semillas del paramilitarismo.
wwwrabodeaji.blogspot.com/2026/03/geogra…
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Self-Employment Rate
Colombia🇨🇴: 45.8
Mexico🇲🇽: 30.8
Greece🇬🇷: 30.7
Türkiye🇹🇷: 28.8
CR🇨🇷: 25.8
Chile🇨🇱: 23.8
Korea🇰🇷: 22.9
Italy🇮🇹: 21.2
Poland🇵🇱: 19
NZ🇳🇿: 18.6
Spain🇪🇸: 14.8
France🇫🇷: 13.3
Japan🇯🇵: 9.2
Australia🇦🇺: 8.5
Germany🇩🇪: 8.3
Denmark🇩🇰: 8
Canada🇨🇦: 6.7
US🇺🇸: 6.2
@OECD
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Oscar Mesa retweetledi
🇨🇴 Colombian Elections 🗳️: The spoof wall was not the first red flag.
Weeks ago I went on-chain and found a wallet created exclusively to buy Cepeda YES on Polymarket. Not a single other transaction in its entire history.
It was funded through multiple wallets using relays designed to hide where the money comes from. It uses to buy $100 blocks 4-5 times in 2 minutes using a bot, every week, like clockwork.
As the senate elections approached the wallet became more aggressive until this day now it buys $100 blocks up to 15 times in 2 minutes.
That is not a person making a bet. That is a budget being executed on a schedule. First a bot pumping the price. Then a $50K fake wall defending it. Then the wall vanishing the moment price approached it.
Someone has been running a manipulation campaign on a Colombian presidential election market for two months.
Basenji@cryptobasenji
🇨🇴 I went on-chain to investigate Glass-Nail, the wallet pumping Cepeda YES on Polymarket. Here's what I found. The wallet was created 63 days ago. 514 transactions. Every single one is Cepeda YES on Polymarket. Nothing else. Ever. I traced the funding sources. Three different wallets sent the initial capital, a $22 test transaction, then $894 via a Permit2 relay, then $1,778 from what appears to be a multisig. Using multiple funding sources for a single-purpose wallet is not normal retail behavior. The source wallet holds $12.5K across three chains (Base, Ethereum, Polygon) and was funded through relay solvers designed to obscure the origin of funds. Whoever this is knows enough about crypto to route through infrastructure that makes tracing difficult, but not enough about trading to use a limit order 😂. Think about that: sophisticated enough to split funding across relays and multisigs, but still market-buying $100 blocks like a bot on autopilot. 15 identical buys in 2 minutes, every single week. That's not a trader. That's a budget being executed. And here's the funny part: it's getting more expensive and less effective every day. Two months ago $100 could move the price. Now the market has more liquidity, more eyes watching, and every $100 block barely moves the needle. As primera vuelta approaches, the cost of maintaining this fiction goes up exponentially while the market gets harder to manipulate. Good luck with that budget. Market: polymarket.com/event/colombia…
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Mejor anécdota de Juan Mario Laserna: estaba haciendo campaña en el Tolima. Se le acerca un campesino: "Doctor, ¿usted dónde estudió?" / "En una universidad que se llama Yale". / "A bueno, por lo menos no es de la rosca de Los Andes".
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🇨🇴 Spoofing in Colombian elections market:
This morning I spotted something I had never seen before in this market. A single order sitting at 60¢ NO with 77,888 shares, worth ~$50K.
Every level around it had $2-3K max. That asymmetry is not natural. That is spoofing: you place a massive fake order to create the illusion of support, scare sellers away from pushing the price down, and pull it before it ever gets filled. I called it out publicly few hours ago.
Hours later the price approached that level and the wall is now gone. It vanished. It was never meant to be filled.
I have seen this exact technique used in other markets by whales trying to control price direction.
Seeing it in a Colombian presidential election market is something else entirely. This is not a random degen losing money on a bet. Someone with serious money needed Cepeda's probability to look healthy because Polymarket prices get cited by analysts and media.
Basenji@cryptobasenji
🇨🇴Spoofing. Now on a political prediction market Someone with serious money is defending Cepeda's price on Polymarket and I don't think it's a random degen. There's a ~$50K wall sitting at a single price level, 10x the size of everything around it. That's not organic. That's spoofing: a fake support order to stop the price from falling and keep Cepeda looking viable. I've seen this in other markets like Bitcoin. In a political prediction market it's a first. The question is who. A random left-wing degen? Powerful political allies? Money connected to the Colombian government? Someone needs Cepeda's probability to stay high, not for profit, but for narrative. Polymarket prices get cited by local media, and a lot of eyes are watching this, and can be used as propaganda or source of credibility. A collapsing price is a collapsing campaign. Watch that wall. If it disappears before being filled, you have your answer.
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Encuentro esta experiencia de Finlandia sobre la importancia de transar (compromise) interesante para la situación colombiana actual
The Daily Show@TheDailyShow
Finland's former PM @MarinSanna on how coalition government fosters healthy compromise in a polarized world
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Oscar Mesa retweetledi
La Universidad Nacional de Colombia: Entre el Capricho Político y el Estado de Derecho blogs.elespectador.com/actualidad/ecu… De @MantillaIgnacio
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A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with #ENSO-neutral favored through MJJ 2026 (55% chance). El Niño is likely to emerge In JJA 2026 (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. (1/2) cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analy…
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Parece que al próximo gobierno le va a tocar un comienzo difícil con fenómeno de El Niño intenso, amenaza de racionamiento y demás efectos en agricultura e incendios forestales
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Oscar Mesa retweetledi
Estos son los 5 puntos que nos unen:
1. Acabar con la Paz Total y recuperar el control del territorio.
2. Darle estabilidad al manejo de la economía colombiana y las finanzas del Estado.
3. Apoyar al sector privado.
4. Recuperar las relaciones con aliados internacionales.
5. Defender la Constitución y rechazar una Asamblea Constituyente.
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El presidente y los ministros decidieron participar abiertamente en la política electoral ¿Tal vez haya que cambiar la ley, pero mientras esté vigente no habría que acatarla?
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SE FILTRÓ: ESPEJO CON MICRÓFONO CLANDESTINO CAPTA SOLILOQUIO DE DELCY
«Qué curiosa criatura es el imperio. Durante décadas nos acusó de todo: antiyanquis, conspiradores, aliados de Irán, amigos del terrorismo, hijos espirituales de Fidel, del Che, de Marx. Y ahora basta con que
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Satellite data show that wind conditions affect the connection between soil moisture and thunderstorms, which could be used to inform forecasting
go.nature.com/4cO3AcP
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March 10, 2026: A Gale Warning is in effect for Caribbean waters offshore Colombia tonight and again Wednesday night for E winds of 35 kt. See hurricanes.gov/marine for the latest forecast.
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Colombia’s post-primaries price action is so far pretty awesome – COP opened 112bps stronger vs USD, 5Y CDS 7bps tighter
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