Charles Jolley

New from @TinmanGroup - Why AI Won't Take Your Job in 12 Months (the diffusion rate problem no one is talking about) open.substack.com/pub/tinmangrou…

The Tinman Manifesto - our view on the future of tech investing and where AI will really make a difference. open.substack.com/pub/tinmangrou…

Evidently Trump figured out that promising something in two weeks is short enough to get people off your back but long enough they will forget about it and move on. Every time he says something is coming in two weeks it’s a stall. Always. Easiest tell and amazing that it works still. Anyway, planning a bigger story on this. Major breaking news. Expect it in about two weeks.

@antoniogm Dunning-Kruger disease?

I have whatever the opposite of imposter syndrome is: in my domain, I think everyone else is a complete midwit, and the sooner everyone does what I say, the sooner we’ll get to the future and get rich doing so.

There were too many insights to share in a single thread, so here are my key takeaways from Day 2 of HoldCoConf. I’ll also be posting my (much shorter) takeaways from Day 3 later today. If you run a small business and are serious about scaling through acquisition, make @HoldCoConf a non-negotiable in 2026. #HoldCo #SMBTwitter #AcquisitionEntrepreneurship

New U.S. tariffs take effect this April - Nivoda is actively managing pricing, supply chain stability, and real-time updates to keep you informed and supported. #tariffs #USTariffs #TariffImpact

Economics reality check: Today's 14% import reliance vs 1930s' 3-5% doesn't mean new tariffs = Smoot-Hawley 2.0. Our 80% service economy has different vulnerabilities than our manufacturing-dominant past. Still concerning, but requires nuanced planning, not panic.

@robleclerc As it has been since the dawn of AI time (ie 1950)

At some point AI progress will hit a WALL. We’ll have exhausted scale, training data, algorithmic improvement, all the AI easy-to-discover scientific knowledge. Then progress will only be made in slow punctuated steps when new knowledge is acquired through slow and expensive empirical discoveries. These discoveries will be like gold, triggering the next iteration of progress, but then another wall.

We are excited to announce Nivoda has been selected as a finalist in the Jewellery Industry Supplier of the Year category at the Professional Jeweller Awards 🥳 #PJAwards #JewelleryAwards #ProfessionalJeweller

Alignment (wanting the same thing) is far more important than agreement (doing the same thing) if you want to scale your team. Josh Broward at Wisdom Partners explains how to get there. wisdompartners.llc/blog/alignment…

Excited for @nivoda - it’s been great to be on the journey eh then as they transform global jewelry trade for the better

I was saying to friends that the ad would be so much better in reverse… and someone pointed out that @rezawrecktion did it and it actually is!

Congrats to the @KheironMedical team. All those award ceremonies must be getting a little old…

@ChrisHarveyEsq It is better for employees if your 409 a valuation is low. Therefore, if you raise money, you first have to convince investors why you’re worth millions and immediately make the case to the IRS why you are probably going to fail. 🙃🙂

@ChrisHarveyEsq First off this isn’t a new change. A 5 to 1 ratio in price has been common for more than a decade. Second, the two prices are not really comparable because 409A is used for a different purpose. It is meant to determine the price you can issue options for your employees.

This Carta data needs another look. Of all the charts I have seen the last 6 months, this one is the wildest. • Discounts per Round: Here are the gaps between the FMV of what a company reports to the IRS (common stock) and what investors actually pay (preferred stock): • Seed Stage: 77.3% Discount • Series A: 71.7% Discount • Series B: 65.8% Discount • Series C: 63.6% Discount • Series D: 60.8% Discount In other words, if an investor pays $1.00 for Series Seed Preferred Stock, common stockholders should expect their stock to be worth ~22 cents. • There's a Big Gap Between 409A Valuations vs. Preferred Stock Prices: The chart shows the fair market value (FMV) of common stock, as determined by the 409A valuation process, expressed as a percentage *OFF* the price of the most recently issued preferred stock in various funding rounds, from Seed through Series D (to IPO, which all preferred stock converts into common). • Which valuation is more accurate? That depends on the purpose - whether this is a new financing, an employee-led tender offer, a secondary sale, an exit, an IPO, or many other scenarios that could impact price. • Decreasing Valuation Gap: The trend lines represent a decreasing valuation gap from Seed to Series D rounds to IPO. The gap tends to shorten as companies mature and progress through each subsequent round of funding. (Thanks to @PeterJ_Walker for posting the original, and correcting me earlier, which I'll share below 🙏)

@robleclerc I mean, but obviously these power demands are going to drop 100x+ due to more efficient architecture and hardware. I don’t understand the purpose of these scare tactics from people who should want everyone to buy as many gpus as possible

This is the bull case for solar. Silicon powering silicon.

The power of Mia® to help doctors find invasive breast cancers earlier is highlighted in @TheEconomist 's latest Tech Quarterly. Special thanks to @natashaloder for covering this important development. economist.com/technology-qua…

Congrats to Peter & co at @KheironMedical on the scientific progress for breast cancer screening, and for the shoutout!

AI startups like @KheironMedical are helping spot cancer at very early stages. This is promising and will reduce suffering and save lives. ❤️