Spearshere

@ColoradoCharlee @BillAckman @FBI @POTUS The FBI wrote and signed the letter his post is referring to. You clearly didn’t even comprehend or read his tweet or the tweet he’s commenting on. You are the real misinformation spreader and the hypocrite and the real problem.

@BillAckman @FBI @POTUS I think Bill Ackman knows better than to think the #FBI is responsible for securing the border. Why he chooses to suggest otherwise is quite palpable. Spreading misinformation. It's now up to the politicians to take action. Talk is cheap.

Please read the below letter. I find the @FBI agents’ message irrefutable and extremely concerning. It is shocking that @POTUS is fighting Texas’ attempt to protect our southern border. Why aren’t Federal agents protecting our border rather than fighting to keep the border open to millions of unaccountable masses entering illegally at a time of great geopolitical uncertainty and heightened terrorism risk? How does this make any sense for the safety and security of our country? What is Biden or, perhaps better said, the people behind Biden thinking?

@elerianm @WSJ Does this include buy now pay later (0% interest)? Perhaps this is just the effect of increased adoption of that option at checkout.

From the @WSJ: "From fuel and groceries to hotels and airline tickets, [US] consumers are putting more purchases on credit cards—and taking longer to pay them off. The four biggest U.S. banks reported higher credit card spending in 2023 compared with the previous year. In fact, since 2020, credit-card spending has steadily increased at three of the four .... Unpaid balances also surpassed 2019 levels for the first time, showing that consumers are putting more purchases on cards and taking longer to pay off their bills than they were before the pandemic." #economy #markets #debt #econtwitter

@richfalkwallace Thanks for this. Please share excel

An entire MBA fits on one page. But you better know the math cold. Like & comment if you want the excel. 6 topics: *1) Unit economics* This builds from product-level unit economics to company financials. Quantity per unit, growth in units. Price per unit, growth in pricing. Cost per unit, marketing spend per unit. Get you return on ad spend (ROAS), customer acquisition cost (CAC), LTV/CAC, gross margins, unit contribution margins, and more. This model sets up two diverging products: A higher gross margin (GM), higher marking cost, low pricing power, low growth product. Against a lower GM, better pricing power, better growing, lower unit market cost product. To show how the dynamics of the two play out over time. *2) Accounting* Unit drivers flow into revenue, variable COGS, and variable SG&A. Then to EBITDA, EBIT, EBT, Net income & EPS. Simple cash flow statements & balance sheets reconcile D&A to inflation-adjusted replacement CapEx, debt levels, & GAAP PP&E. You have to be fluent in accounting to look at public companies. Not because accounting itself matters. But because accounting can obscure what matters. And your task it to translate GAAP into meaningful business logic. *3) Operating ratios* Unit drivers output financials, financials output overall business ratios. Revenue growth, EBITDA growth, EBITDA margins. Contribution margins (= change in profit over change in revenue). Net debt-to-EBITDA, net debt % of EV. *4) Valuation* You can drive valuation on multiples or a DCF. Which are equivalent: The discount rate minus the growth rate determines the 'terminal multiple.' Using a P/E instead of a DCF simply uses next year as the terminal value. This model drives value from the DCF, and maps that to the multiples to show how they connect. *5) Corporate finance & DCFs* DCF math attached using the CAPM. The summary is a beta from historical returns, add the cost of debt. To get the WACC - the theoretically correct discount rate. DCFs are extremely assumption laden - you can get out almost whatever you want. But realistically. Your banker (or analyst) will make the math work out to a 7-13% discount rate. Depending on the risks, industry, markets - and what they want to achieve. *6) Sensitivities & the hard part* The last section sensitizes the equity value and multiples to unit and price growth. Bringing unit drivers full circle to valuation outcomes. Ultimately, the hard part isn't the math. You have to be fluent in the math, its nuances and its limitations. If not, you will lose out to those who are. But once you are, you also have to shift focus. To the hard part. Which is always in filling in the numbers. If you're investing, that means thoughtful views on unit drivers; on how, when, and why they shift. And if you're building, it means making the numbers on the page happen. That's all for now. Like & comment if you want the excel.

@AustinValue Read your puts and takes essay. Good stuff! Have you been buying puts when VIX hits 20? What index do you use?

Per a follower's request: All compilations: austinvaluecapital.com/resources.html All writing/essays: austinvaluecapital.com/writing.html Performance Evaluation Essay for Famous Value Investors (most popular): drive.google.com/file/d/0BxTPR9…

@bravo_nikola @jedimarkus77 @BomsteinRick What trades would be the equivalent today? consensus is still hike .25 right? Or is market dead cat bouncing because market thinks fed is finished raising?

@jedimarkus77 @BomsteinRick Finally got this after seeing your posts. This is pretty apropos.

For those who weren’t there, this is exactly what March 2009 felt like

2022 will see many announcements on the tremendous progress in age reversal using partial reprogramming of cells ... # of companies, capital invested, papers getting published all growing. stopping and reversing aging will not seem like fiction in a few years time..

@charles_gaba The charts title is deaths but y axis is cases. Only 1 person in the comments pointed this out! This is irresponsible.

@dmgrossman @GrandTeton41 @charles_gaba @davidfrum This charts title tracks deaths but it's y axis tracks cases..hmm

@AltcoinDailyio All of the “bits to atoms essays” in 2017-2018 proved out bits (software) is eating everything (the world). you’re telling me, fiat is the atoms and Ethereum is the bits. 👂that beat?..history is rhyming again.this is the message to least resistance for widespread adoption of ETH

Just bought some more #ethereum. 👍

This is so wonderful!!!

@Igoronski05 @CitronResearch When’s the ideal time to open that position?

If David Bowie was around today he would tokenize his music.. There we have it now people start to think.. Tired of watching everyone spin their wheels.. @tZERO @Noursalehi @JJohnsonNow @loggyrhythm

@profgalloway @tiktok_us Perhaps they acquire for the code not necessarily the social product. The personalized AI seems appealing for competing with Netflixes recommendation algos. but there are many more applications if you’re Disney

Prediction: “You can’t quit me” Kevin Mayer goes on board of Disney after after firm acquires US assets of @tiktok_us DIS is the right acquirer—balance sheet, Sino-American chops, Kevin as bridge, family content platform(s); old & new

“What we're thinking about is a peaceful planet. We're not thinking about anything else... And about moving the whole human race ahead a step.” -@jerrygarcia We'd like to think #JerryGarcia's birthday wish would be to continue pushing it forward. Listen: open.spotify.com/playlist/2lXOh…

@profgalloway @karaswisher instagram.com/yourdadsameric…

.⁦@karaswisher⁩, you asked for picture of the dawg w/hair. I know,,,I haven’t changed a bit.

@NASASpaceflight Suspicious loss of signal and fully landed 5s later..earlier landings seemed to take longer than 5s to fully land.

SECO! Nominal orbit! B1058 LANDS on Drone Ship Of Course I Still Love You.

@joaQUEENmertz @airelibre_fm @sutedevaleriana 🕺will this be available to replay anywhere?

💖💖🔥🔥 #poloandpan #aleph @sutedevaleriana @airelibre_fm

@JamesGRickards “Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt.” ― Richard Feynman “I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned.” ― Richard Feynman

Great read. Well thought through: "How can @Amazon disrupt Healthcare?" healthcare.digital/single-post/20… #JPM18 #HIMSS18 #hdpalooza #hcldr

@sacca by airbnb I meant rent like a champion