Marty H

@Houseofyogi @grok verify stats please

No Kings explained for people who think they're fighting fascism. You're standing in a crowd on Saturday. You look around and think yeah. No Kings. This is what democracy looks like. Bro. You're holding a sign made by a communist billionaire who lives in Shanghai. You live in a constitutional republic. Elections. Term limits. A free press that spent four years calling the president a fascist without one journalist being arrested. The modern left's definition of fascism: You love your country? Fascist. You want to enforce the border? Racist. You think parents should raise their kids? Bigot. You want to know who's voting in your elections? Jim Crow. Being patriotic is fascism to the modern left. But every country has borders and enforces them. 176 countries require ID to vote. That's the definition of a country. But the Democratic establishment told you otherwise. And you believed them. Congress has a 15% approval rating. 80% of Americans disapprove. 97% of incumbents got re-elected. Chuck Schumer. 46 years. Longer than Stalin. Steny Hoyer. 45 years. Longer than Mao. Mitch McConnell. 42 years. 5x more than Napoleon. Nancy Pelosi. 39 years. Longer than Henry VIII. Maxine Waters. 35 years. Longer than Mussolini. Bernie Sanders. 35 years. Triple Hitler's entire reign. Trump. 5 years and 3 months. Won the popular vote and the electoral vote. But Trump is the king. Okay buddy. You don't hate kings. You hate kings that aren't yours. And Saturday they had you in the streets carrying their water. The Democratic Party installed a president without letting you vote. Biden quit on a Sunday. By Tuesday your queen was crowned. No primary. No debate. No ballot. First time since 1968. Three days before your march every Senate Democrat voted against photo ID to vote. During COVID you carried a vaccine card everywhere like a hall pass from the government just to eat at a restaurant. But getting a birth certificate or waiting two hours at the DMV to prove you're a citizen before you vote? That's oppression. The Democratic Party is pro illegal immigration. Counts non-citizens in the Census. Census determines congressional seats. More non-citizens means more seats means more power. No voter ID means no way to check. That's how you keep power without wearing a crown. Biden built a censorship machine. Pressured Facebook to suppress true information and admitted it in writing. Censored scientists. Censored doctors. Censored JOKES. The Biden White House told Facebook to remove "humor and satire." They literally went after people for making fun of them. UK does it better tho... Everything they censored turned out to be right. They just outsourced the silencing to Silicon Valley. And it doesn't stop at speech. The extreme left justifies taking children from families. Six thousand schools rewrite children's identities without telling parents. And the State has the right to intervene. The Hitler Youth did this. Mao's Red Guards did this. The Soviets built statues of a child who reported his own father. Same playbook. During Covid, your bakery got shut down. Church closed. You couldn't hold your dying mother's hand at the hospital. But thousands packed together during BLM to burn Minneapolis and THAT was essential civic engagement. Obviously. $2 billion in damage. 25 dead. 2,000 cops injured. 20 states burning. VP Kamala promoted a bail fund for the rioters. No investigation. No hearings. January 6. One building. Few hours. 1,000 prosecuted. Two years of televised hearings. Kings decide which violence counts. The left decided. Charlie Kirk spent his life walking onto campuses asking for honest debate. He was assassinated. CSIS terrorism database. 2025 is the first year in 30 years that left-wing attacks outnumber right-wing. Yet no one brings this up. 75% of liberal students say preventing a speaker from talking is justified. 27% say violence is acceptable. Liberals who went to Trump rallies: "I never felt unsafe." "The experience changed me." Conservatives who show up on liberal campuses get screamed at, blocked, and assassinated. One side talks. The other side screams. The Party for Socialism and Liberation marched with you Saturday. Their stated purpose in their own words: "Revolution." Not reform. Marxism. The system that killed a hundred million people last century. They had you holding their signs while they said it out loud. 500 groups. $3 billion in revenue. Pre-printed signs. The signs were ready before you were angry. The money leads to Neville Roy Singham. Billionaire in Shanghai. Attends CCP workshops. Funnels millions through shell companies at UPS mailboxes. Three Congressional committees have subpoenaed him as a suspected CCP foreign agent. You thought you were fighting for democracy. You were carrying water for Beijing. "Liberals are leaving the First Amendment behind." Spoken by the ACLU lawyer who defended Nazis in court because it was their constitutional right. Bill Clinton put 100,000 cops on the street. Reformed welfare. Said illegal immigration is wrong to a standing ovation. Told America the era of big government is over. Today his own party would call him a fascist. The 1990s Democrat defended free speech for Nazis. Yours censors doctors for telling the truth. The 1990s Democrat held open primaries. Yours installed a nominee without a vote. The 1990s Democrat trusted parents. Yours takes their children. Historians measure fascism across eight traits. Here's who checks the boxes in 2026: Censorship of political opposition. Democrats. Contempt for democratic process. Democrats. Tolerance of political violence. Democrats. State ideology forced on families. Democrats. Corporate-state fusion. Democrats. Scapegoating and manufactured enemies. Both sides. Cult of personality. Both sides. Ultranationalism. Republicans. Five for the left. One for the right. Two shared. You marched against kings on Saturday. You marched FOR kings. You just didn't know which was which. Stop being gaslit. I hope you understand what's at stake.

@elonmusk The fact that this is so easily debunked is exactly the problem. Iran Air 655 is well-documented history, not opinion, not interpretation. A 10-second search confirms it. This has @grok sitting right there. Use it. Flag obvious historical misinformation before the algorithm rewards it with a million impressions. The correction in the replies will always reach fewer people than the original post. That’s by design, and it needs to change.

One common issue with personalization in all LLMs is how distracting memory seems to be for the models. A single question from 2 months ago about some topic can keep coming up as some kind of a deep interest of mine with undue mentions in perpetuity. Some kind of trying too hard.

@tadgh_dc Great joke.

So Claude got Maduro and ChatGPT got the Ayatollah Sounds like a new benchmark

@NYCMayor Haha…this will age poorly

Today’s military strikes on Iran — carried out by the United States and Israel — mark a catastrophic escalation in an illegal war of aggression. Bombing cities. Killing civilians. Opening a new theater of war.  Americans do not want this. They do not want another war in pursuit of regime change. They want relief from the affordability crisis. They want peace. I am focused on making sure that every New Yorker is safe. I have been in contact with our Police Commissioner and emergency management officials. We are taking proactive steps, including increasing coordination across agencies and enhancing patrols of sensitive locations out of an abundance of caution. Additionally, I want to speak directly to Iranian New Yorkers: you are part of the fabric of this city — you are our neighbors, small business owners, students, artists, workers, and community leaders. You will be safe here.

This resonates deeply. I've had the same phase shift experience. But I keep circling back to a question you didn't quite address: what does the learning path look like now? You mention discrimination (reading) and generation (writing) are different capabilities, and that you're noticing atrophy in the latter. But you built your discrimination ability through years of generation. You can spot the 1000-line bloat and suggest the 100-line solution because you've written both versions manually, felt the pain of maintaining the bloated one, developed the taste. When I watch newer engineers use Claude Code, they often can't see the slop. Not because they're less capable, but because they haven't built the pattern library yet. They accept the overcomplicated abstraction because they don't know the simpler one exists. They can't push back on wrong assumptions because they don't recognize them as wrong. So I'm genuinely curious about your take on the pedagogical paradox here: 1. If coding drudgery is where fundamentals get internalized (not just understood intellectually), how do we create that same depth when the drudgery is automated away? 2. Your "generalists vs specialists" question is fascinating, but does this assume a baseline competence that might not form naturally anymore? 3. Is there a version of this where LLM-native developers actually develop better intuition because they can explore vastly more design spaces faster? Or is that optimistic cope? I don't think this is a "kids these days" concern. It's a genuine structural question about how expertise forms when the struggle that builds it gets smoothed over. What's your mental model for the next generation of engineers emerging from this environment?

A few random notes from claude coding quite a bit last few weeks. Coding workflow. Given the latest lift in LLM coding capability, like many others I rapidly went from about 80% manual+autocomplete coding and 20% agents in November to 80% agent coding and 20% edits+touchups in December. i.e. I really am mostly programming in English now, a bit sheepishly telling the LLM what code to write... in words. It hurts the ego a bit but the power to operate over software in large "code actions" is just too net useful, especially once you adapt to it, configure it, learn to use it, and wrap your head around what it can and cannot do. This is easily the biggest change to my basic coding workflow in ~2 decades of programming and it happened over the course of a few weeks. I'd expect something similar to be happening to well into double digit percent of engineers out there, while the awareness of it in the general population feels well into low single digit percent. IDEs/agent swarms/fallability. Both the "no need for IDE anymore" hype and the "agent swarm" hype is imo too much for right now. The models definitely still make mistakes and if you have any code you actually care about I would watch them like a hawk, in a nice large IDE on the side. The mistakes have changed a lot - they are not simple syntax errors anymore, they are subtle conceptual errors that a slightly sloppy, hasty junior dev might do. The most common category is that the models make wrong assumptions on your behalf and just run along with them without checking. They also don't manage their confusion, they don't seek clarifications, they don't surface inconsistencies, they don't present tradeoffs, they don't push back when they should, and they are still a little too sycophantic. Things get better in plan mode, but there is some need for a lightweight inline plan mode. They also really like to overcomplicate code and APIs, they bloat abstractions, they don't clean up dead code after themselves, etc. They will implement an inefficient, bloated, brittle construction over 1000 lines of code and it's up to you to be like "umm couldn't you just do this instead?" and they will be like "of course!" and immediately cut it down to 100 lines. They still sometimes change/remove comments and code they don't like or don't sufficiently understand as side effects, even if it is orthogonal to the task at hand. All of this happens despite a few simple attempts to fix it via instructions in CLAUDE . md. Despite all these issues, it is still a net huge improvement and it's very difficult to imagine going back to manual coding. TLDR everyone has their developing flow, my current is a small few CC sessions on the left in ghostty windows/tabs and an IDE on the right for viewing the code + manual edits. Tenacity. It's so interesting to watch an agent relentlessly work at something. They never get tired, they never get demoralized, they just keep going and trying things where a person would have given up long ago to fight another day. It's a "feel the AGI" moment to watch it struggle with something for a long time just to come out victorious 30 minutes later. You realize that stamina is a core bottleneck to work and that with LLMs in hand it has been dramatically increased. Speedups. It's not clear how to measure the "speedup" of LLM assistance. Certainly I feel net way faster at what I was going to do, but the main effect is that I do a lot more than I was going to do because 1) I can code up all kinds of things that just wouldn't have been worth coding before and 2) I can approach code that I couldn't work on before because of knowledge/skill issue. So certainly it's speedup, but it's possibly a lot more an expansion. Leverage. LLMs are exceptionally good at looping until they meet specific goals and this is where most of the "feel the AGI" magic is to be found. Don't tell it what to do, give it success criteria and watch it go. Get it to write tests first and then pass them. Put it in the loop with a browser MCP. Write the naive algorithm that is very likely correct first, then ask it to optimize it while preserving correctness. Change your approach from imperative to declarative to get the agents looping longer and gain leverage. Fun. I didn't anticipate that with agents programming feels *more* fun because a lot of the fill in the blanks drudgery is removed and what remains is the creative part. I also feel less blocked/stuck (which is not fun) and I experience a lot more courage because there's almost always a way to work hand in hand with it to make some positive progress. I have seen the opposite sentiment from other people too; LLM coding will split up engineers based on those who primarily liked coding and those who primarily liked building. Atrophy. I've already noticed that I am slowly starting to atrophy my ability to write code manually. Generation (writing code) and discrimination (reading code) are different capabilities in the brain. Largely due to all the little mostly syntactic details involved in programming, you can review code just fine even if you struggle to write it. Slopacolypse. I am bracing for 2026 as the year of the slopacolypse across all of github, substack, arxiv, X/instagram, and generally all digital media. We're also going to see a lot more AI hype productivity theater (is that even possible?), on the side of actual, real improvements. Questions. A few of the questions on my mind: - What happens to the "10X engineer" - the ratio of productivity between the mean and the max engineer? It's quite possible that this grows *a lot*. - Armed with LLMs, do generalists increasingly outperform specialists? LLMs are a lot better at fill in the blanks (the micro) than grand strategy (the macro). - What does LLM coding feel like in the future? Is it like playing StarCraft? Playing Factorio? Playing music? - How much of society is bottlenecked by digital knowledge work? TLDR Where does this leave us? LLM agent capabilities (Claude & Codex especially) have crossed some kind of threshold of coherence around December 2025 and caused a phase shift in software engineering and closely related. The intelligence part suddenly feels quite a bit ahead of all the rest of it - integrations (tools, knowledge), the necessity for new organizational workflows, processes, diffusion more generally. 2026 is going to be a high energy year as the industry metabolizes the new capability.

@svpino Do you run any heavy processing on it? Or are you remoting to a server? Wondering if you ever notice throttling from heat dissipation.

This is the best laptop in the world. Period. M4, 32 GB RAM, 1TB SSD, 18 hours of battery life, 13 inches, 2.7 lbs. $1,699 with the student discount. I've used it for 6 months, and I haven't missed a Pro, not even once. This laptop has no competition.

@CodeByPoonam Whelp looks like I need to start practicing supervising firefighters. How should I get started? @grok

Microsoft just dropped a study showing the 40 jobs most at risk by AI and the 40 most secure.

@elonmusk Why haven’t you launched an autonomous EV racing league yet? Imagine racing but with NO DRIVERS. Just pure AI pushing the limits of what’s possible. Teams competing on algorithms, sensor tech, and split-second decision making at 200+ mph. This would: - Accelerate FSD development faster than any road testing - Create insane entertainment value - Push battery/motor tech to the extreme - Generate massive data for Tesla’s neural nets - Attract top AI talent globally Racing has always driven automotive innovation. Time to do it again, but this time let the machines compete. Who wouldn’t watch AI-powered Teslas battling it out on track? Make it happen! 🏁🤖 #AutonomousRacing #FSD #TeslaRacing

15/15 FINAL THOUGHTS This crisis shows rigorous analytical frameworks CAN predict geopolitical outcomes. Key: Game theory + real-time intelligence + Bayesian computation 🔗 Full analysis & methodology: github.com/oldhero5/strat… The future of strategic analysis is quantitative! 🚀 #GameTheory #Iran #Israel #Ceasefire #DataScience #BayesianAnalysis

14/15 TECHNICAL VALIDATION 🔬 Model Performance: Predicted probability: 90.7% (CI: 81.7%-97.4%) Actual outcome: Ceasefire achieved ✅ Time prediction: Within 72 hours Actual time: <24 hours ✅ Risk score: 1.052 (correctly assessed as manageable) Bayesian MCMC with 2,000 samples validated!

🚨 BREAKING: Iran-Israel Ceasefire Announced! Thread 1/15 🎯 On June 23 at 6AM, our Bayesian game theory model predicted Iran-Israel ceasefire with 90.7% probability. 🕐 At 6:02 PM, President Trump announced "complete and total ceasefire." How did mathematical models predict this outcome? Let me show you... 🧵