
jokiez
142 posts


@mzjacobson it’s a very good filter issue for general scientific literacy
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People who deny climate change not only deny the obvious data showing warming rates today faster than any time since even deglaciation from the last ice age and the obvious fact that the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) is cooling due to greenhouse gases trapping heat in and warming the lower atmosphere (troposphere), preventing that heat from warming the stratosphere, but also pretend that they have brains that operate better than solutions to physical equations of the atmosphere solved by the largest computer models in the world.
x.com/mzjacobson/sta…
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@DavysApprentice @MrSimonBennett Shop around. Our Y and 3 are both cheaper than our previous cars to insure
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@DMRDartford @FurkanGozukara also according to AI: renewables can handle 80-90% of UK energy needs cheaper than natgas. the last 10-20% can be done with peaked plant for now.
no one said it has to be 100% right now
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@DMRDartford @FurkanGozukara what about the prolonged period of hormuz disruption
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@furious_buffalo @johnrhanger he single handedly destroyed resistance to evs and renewables. remarkable.
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@johnrhanger This will far outweigh the damage that Trump did by pulling the plug on the ITC and CAFE standards and paying companies to not build out wind installations. Thanks Trump! You’re a real genius.
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South Korea's President: “South Korea must swiftly transition to renewable energy.”
“Relying on fossil energy is extremely dangerous for the future. We do not produce these resources ourselves, and chasing imports has led to the current crisis.”
chosun.com/english/nation…
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@ClairmontVII @johnrhanger lol until trump decides to use it as leverage for something he wants
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@johnrhanger Easy solution:
Nuclear.
Or buy oil from America and you are 100% safe.
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good piece i sort of agree with. the other item is that due to electrification, the disruptions are less economy wide and much more manageable. painful but it’s not catastrophic
Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno
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@D4RW1NEXE @Polymarket omar did this and he gets no credit for it. omar did it first
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AAV gene therapy restored hearing in all 10 trial patients within weeks no batteries, no implants.
It targets OTOF gene mutation specifically. Rare. ~20-50 US births/yr. Not a cure for most deafness.
Still the biggest hearing breakthrough in 40 years. Cochlear implants are electronic workarounds.
Which fixes the root cause

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@astridwilde1 sad but true. no more buffett consumer monopoly type businesses.
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The AI trade has finally begun.
Short human consumption.
Long inference consumption.
Omer Cheema@OmerCheeema
Chatted with a buddy from Qualcomm earlier. They're slashing mid-range Snapdragon production hard, some yearly projections down as much as 30%. Memory prices are absolutely nuts right now and crushing demand in the mid-tier phone segment. Visibility into the next year doesn't look great either. $QCOM
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@NikoPoplawski @jayvanbavel tell me you don’t understand how science works without telling me you don’t understand how science works
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90% of current papers posted on arXiv in physics in gr-qc and hep-th are fantasy: studying things that do not exist (such as extra dimensions or ‘invented’ particles) or playing with mathematical extensions of existing theories without solving any important problem (such as f(R,Q,…) gravity). Canceling grants for that “research” is good.
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NEWS: Massive budget cuts for US science proposed again by Trump administration
"It's an extinction-level event for science".
The US government is proposing massive cuts to almost every branch of science, from NASA to the National Institutes of Health. NSF would completely eliminate the social, economic and behavioral sciences directorate.
This would decimate the world's leading scientific system.
nature.com/articles/d4158…

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nuclear energy as it stands now is a big target in a conflict. another reason to go to safer forms of nuclear
Chris Martenson@chrismartenson
🚨 A nuclear incident is underway. 🚨 Russia's state nuclear company Rosatom evacuates a further 198 of its staff from Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant — Reuters It didn't have to be this way.
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@Nacilepxd @NateButtitta @joekent16jan19 you should ditch the flags and the blue check too obvious bot sign
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@Nacilepxd @NateButtitta @joekent16jan19 tell me where it is wrong. i’m willing to listen. btw your feed is an endless stream of reposts and no real posts of your own. if you’re going to be a propaganda bot at least make it look a bit more orgsnic.
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Wow, the response to my Hormuz tracking thread was incredible. So I built a live dashboard where you can monitor all 4 metrics in real-time—insurance premiums, ship counts, oil price spreads, and the April cliff countdown. Everything updates every 5 minutes with sources clearly attributed. Built with Manus.
hormuzdash-hlu8cshd.manus.space
Check it out and let me know what you'd add.
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I've stopped reading Gulf war headlines. Here's what I track instead.
We run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India's crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes — this crisis is personal.
But the information environment right now is garbage. Trump says the war ends tomorrow. Iran says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can't build a portfolio view on this.
So I've narrowed it down to 4 signals. These are priced by people with real money on the line. They don't lie.
1. Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz
This is the single best signal. Lloyd's underwriters have billions at stake on every pricing call. Before the war, insuring a tanker through Hormuz cost 0.25% of the ship's value. Today it's 3.5–10% — and almost nobody is buying. A $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M. When this drops below 2%, the people with the most to lose are telling you it's getting safer. No press conference can replicate that.
2. How many ships are actually crossing
Every ship carries a GPS tracker (AIS). You can count exactly how many cross Hormuz each day. Before: 100+. Now: 8. That's a 92% collapse. You can't spin a ship being somewhere it isn't. Iran is letting some Chinese and Indian ships through, but it's a trickle. When this number crosses 30–40, trade is resuming. You can track this free on the WTO Hormuz Trade Tracker.
3. Paper oil vs real oil
This one most people miss entirely. Brent crude (the headline price) is at $112. But Dubai physical — what Asian buyers actually pay for delivered oil — is at $126. That's a $14 gap. It exists because Trump's comments keep pushing paper prices down. Traders call it jawboning. But the refiners buying cargo aren't getting any discount. If you're looking at Brent to assess India's oil bill, you're looking at the wrong number.
4. The mid-April cliff
Multiple emergency measures expire around the same time. The 400 million barrel SPR release runs dry ~April 15. The US waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Formosa Plastics has declared force majeure from April 1. Right now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at ~5 mb/d. Without them, BCA Research estimates it doubles to 10 mb/d — the largest crude disruption ever. If Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, we're in uncharted territory.
Bottom line: track the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise.
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@tfiiiiine @matthewstoller @tfiiiiine it’s disappointing to me that you won’t address this. it tells me you agree that it’s true and indefensible
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@tfiiiiine @matthewstoller here is another. i am genuinely curious what you think about these testimonies because this is what we see from the outside
Jvnior@Jvnior
🚨🇬🇧 BREAKING: British surgeon gives HORRIFYING testimony to the UK Parliament. He describes how IDF drones arrive right after airstrikes in Gaza, targeting and shooting the injured, including children, right on the spot.
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@Nacilepxd @joekent16jan19 You are a pawn of the death cult. Repent and change.
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