Dominikas S.

@ascetic0x Cheers mate

@one8tyfive good recap man. thanks for sharing

Again, easy +$917, I'll take it 💰 Robinhood doesn't fit Zach's description of "one of crypto’s most profitable businesses", surprised the odds were that high right till the end.

@crydevil_crypto Same. Predict fun has awful metrics and even less people will be farming airdrop there after a lot of droppers got burnt on Opinion.

If OPINION is valued at only $320M, why should Predict fun be worth more? I don’t see a single argument for it. Shorting.

@dedsec @AlterEgo_eth Didn't know that, good point. Then the odds are even worse.

@one8tyfive @AlterEgo_eth and he also doesn’t realize that anthropic has two models, just because anthropic wins with the first one doesn’t mean it can’t resolve for the second

74% ROI on a tech market arbitrage on Polymarket Two markets on Polymarket are contradicting each other right now This creates a risk-free arbitrage opportunity Market 1: Which company has the best AI model end of March? - Anthropic — 75¢ (yes) - Google — 16¢ (yes) Market 2: Which company has the second best AI model end of March? - Anthropic — 44¢ (yes) - Google — 49¢ (yes) Option 1: buy Google YES on both markets - Total 65¢ < $1 - ROI +54% Option 2: buy Anthropic NO on both markets - Total 83¢ < $1 - ROI +20% Both markets are pricing the same situation but contradicting each other in probabilities Just open 2 positions that cover each other regardless of the outcome

@TheFluffleNFT Don't help me bro, help yourself with making a bet on poly and I will just copy it 😀

@one8tyfive not gonna help you with your poly bet lil bro megaeth.

i could leak the launch date of the next 5 but where's the fun in that? megaeth.

@Vartiikaaa It's both. The team needed to allocate more to an airdrop and announce smth like season 2 in order to keep the majority of TVL

Opinion TVL down 71% in 24 hours I see two possibilities: > People were only using it for a potential airdrop. Once expectations changed, they exited. > Or the community didn’t feel prioritized, tokenomics and decisions weren’t aligned with users. Liquidity doesn’t leave that fast without a reason. Was it short-term farming capital or a community trust issue? What do you think happened?

@CarOnPolymarket The math doesn't add up, that's >$10b in total airdropped at least. I would believe in the same figures without one "zero" (so top ones getting $1m each)

Ive been hearing things about the top 100 users of Polymarket getting $10M airdrop each and thousands of users getting $1M+ each

@Naeven_ This fact and the fact that they had to prolong the sale clearly indicated <300m FDV after launch. Nobody wants to buy this stuff even with a refund option included

@nishikoripicks How does it compare with other hard 1000s ?

Those of us 🙋 who expected IW 2026 to play super slow after the ball change and some players' comments... qualifying data suggests we are surely wrong. 72.4% First Serve Points Won — highest in 6 years. Main draw will tell.

@camolNFT If regular ones get $100k+, then the total amount of airdrop would be >$5B, which is unfeasible

Are you farming the Polymarket TGE yet? Some traders are estimating regular users will get $100k+ 👀👀👀

@Route2FI Yes, but they are stuck at 5/10 for ages now.

How long is it before $MEGA will launch realistically? Looks like apps is the closest KPI to trigger TGE. 5/10 so far.

@CarOnPolymarket Still surprised it is trading at ~$500m FDV pre-market, the real value is around $100m

This is what happens when 99% of your users are airdrop farmers

@UnderdogNBA 1st team All NBA ?

Kevin Durant since the All-Star break: 29.4 PPG 6.1 RPG 5.1 APG 54.1% FG 38.8% 3PT Most total points of any player in that span.

@UnderdogNBA The Jazz are stuck at bottom-5. They can't go futher down (other teams are clearly tanking) and can't reach Pelicans, who will actually try to win in the end of the season.

nobody told Keyonte George the Jazz were tanking

@usuches @opinionlabsxyz @Polymarket @jump_ @PolymarketTrade What do you think about $OPN trading at $510m pre-market currently?

BETTING ON OPINION TO HOLD $1B FDV THROUGH DAY ONE Bought YES on @opinionlabsxyz hitting $1B+ FDV one day after launch at 15c on @Polymarket Also buying $800M+ if it drops lower. Market might be underpricing even that floor. The setup is too clean: @jump_ just led their $20M round. Jump has no competing prediction market play. Polymarket and Kalshi didnt let them in. But they know how to pump. Last comparable? $2Z launched at $7-8B FDV. @cz_binance connection plus Chinese institutional backing. This looks like their main prediction markets bet. Expecting immediate Binance listing. Most points farmers are Chinese smart money. Prediction markets are the strongest narrative right now. And there is zero liquid exposure to play the trend. You cant buy the thesis anywhere else. $OPN becomes the only option. Given timing and incentives, they have every reason to hold $1B until market closes. Trying to add more at 10c on $1B. Will take principal at 2x per strategy and let runners ride. Skin in the game. DYOR.

@Christian_Dtmr @grandex_trade @Polymarket I would still say that these kind of "bonds" are highly individual and involve much more criteria: number of fouls, timeouts left, even team's standings / tanking possibility. Per my experience, when it is 100% bond, there no Asks and the Bids are already at 99.9c with 100k+

@one8tyfive @grandex_trade @Polymarket I didn't give the best example, but you can configure triggers using any combination of price, time remaining, and score difference.

Here's how to build @Polymarket NBA bond automations with Claude Code. End-to-end in under 90 seconds.

@afozsn I think it is because of the markets architecture. There is no "refund" or "void" options in the smart contracts, it basically should be resolved W1/W2 or 50-50.

why do they resolve walkovers 50-50

@prerichguy True. Valuable, but expensive experience

@one8tyfive you’re slowly getting the money back after Baptist match :D

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐈 𝐰𝐨𝐧 $𝟖.𝟓𝐤 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐠𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐨𝐨 𝐢𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐝 𝐦𝐞. Friday evening, I'm watching ATP Dubai semifinals Rublev vs Griekspoor. In the end of 1 set Griekspoor pulls his hamstring and can barely walk. x.com/i/status/20274… Surprisingly he wins vs Rublev and proceeds to the finals vs Medvedev. I quickly buy 30'000 shares of Griekspoor @ 21c for the Finals on Saturday. The play is pretty straightforward: 1. if he withdraws due to an injury (=walkover), the market is settled at 50-50, so my 21c bet is settled @ 50c and I make +$8,500. 2. if he somehow still decides to play, I sell the shares right before the start of the game at breakeven. Option 1. was way more probable as with hamstrings you can sometimes play through an injury right when it occurred, but the next morning you can barely move (swelling, bruising, and inflammation build up due to bleeding in the muscle) - what actually happened to Griekspoor - don't think I am a doctor or some injury specialist, just spent 3 minutes on Grok after the game to find that out. Result: Griekspoor withdraws, I scoop a nice +$8,500 prize, I'll take it 💰 Couple of things to note: - odds on Polymarket were lower on Griekspoor the whole day (~4.6 on Polymarket vs ~5.0 on traditional books). Reason? The traditional bookmakers refund this kind of events, whereas Polymarket decides 50-50. - as I mentioned above, I didn't care if the Final actually was played out or not. Moreover I would sell Griekspoor at breakeven and start buying Medvedev as he would kill one-legged Griekspoor if the game took place. - if you found the article interesting/helpful, please like/repost and follow me - I am sharing a lot of alpha plays on X for free, just want to grow my account here and be useful.