

Jack
214 posts

@oneblockjack
Managing Partner, @iccalpha | One Block Capital "always bearish"




Most of you wouldn’t make it past the first-round interview at a major investment bank, let alone PE or a hedge fund. You punted some crypto in a bull market, made a bag, and now think you’re a genius. You were mostly lucky What’s wrong with his argument? Oh, checks notes… JPMorgan generated $178B in net revenue and $57B in net income on $2.5T of deposits. He probably thought he was making a stronger point by dismissing my MAUs benchmarking of tech companies crypto tries to emulate on network effects to justify absurd valuations. And when that doesn’t stick, they pivot to TradFi to see if those multiples magically make crypto make sense. “Bro, crypto is growing faster. The market pays for growth, not value” On what metric? - Active users? No - TVL? Mostly stablecoins The lazy “TAM is huge” analysis collapses in the absence of monetization (and increasing infra competition). Once you actually look at protocol-level metrics, you see: - High user churn - Weak monetization - TVL growth that doesn’t translate into real economics for L1s JPMorgan monetizes its deposits. Crypto L1s? Nowhere close to monetizing near the value they’re implicitly claiming. And yes, maybe this kind of logic flies when you’re doing early-stage venture. But Ethereum at $380B or Solana at $80B isn’t early-stage and it isn’t exactly venture These are mature-stage valuations being justified with seed-stage reasoning No matter how you slice the math, valuations don’t make sense for most protocols at this point - especially L1s It’s lazy analysis, sexy but constantly evolving narratives on analogies layered on top of bag bias over and over again

U.S. Treasuries are having their best year since 2020, and the investors who had confidence and faith in President Trump’s economic policies have been richly rewarded. Never bet against @POTUS or America! 🇺🇸

👀 Oppenheimer started the year at 7,100. Cut to 6,400 on fairly usual early post-election year volatility and just upped to 7,100 after a +25% rally. 😔



Stanley Druckenmiller is undoubtedly one of the best hedge fund managers of our time This interview is from roughly a decade ago at USC, but remains one of my favorites He discusses why he believes in putting all your eggs in one basket and watching that basket very closely

The market is still slow to realize that @galaxyhq is not just a crypto firm but a tech company with strong specialization in both crypto and AI infra - hoping @novogratz makes this clear in the AMA. The only Crypto x AI powerhouse on the Nasdaq, listing in May - what do you think will happen? (hint there isn't much liquidity on the TSX). Disclaimer: we hold a bunch of $glxy shares.


One more chance to ask your questions before we wrap the AMA. Tony and I are looking forward to it!!!

Kind of want to try Luna again but without the mistakes