Eric

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Eric

Eric

@onlypapermoon

鹿島アントラーズSÓCIO /横浜ベイスターズ/美術館巡り/個人投資家/米国株/ゴルファー/メルセデス/ミュンヘンへの道/🇹🇳🇧🇭🇸🇬

Katılım Ocak 2010
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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
半導体株急落は、光が最も眩しい時は、影も最も暗いということ。 #キオクシア #韓国株 #日経平均
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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
「つまり、これらの株(半導体)に逆張りするような根拠のある短期的な供給緩和は存在しない。」 #米国株 #日経平均 #FANG
Melvin@MelvinInvests

How could you possibly be short memory when Samsung is posting numbers like this? (bookmark this). Samsung Electronics just reported Q2 operating profit of 89.5 trillion won, up 19 fold from 4.68 trillion won a year ago, while revenue rose 130% to 171.5 trillion won, both records, driven entirely by AI chip demand. That 19x jump isn't a one quarter fluke, it's the product of a structural supply crunch across the entire memory industry. And Samsung itself is telling investors it expects the market to stay undersupplied through the second half of the year, led by continued AI infrastructure spending and broader agentic AI adoption, even as mobile and PC demand softens. The other memory makers back up the same story. SK Hynix posted similarly explosive results earlier this year, with Q1 revenue nearly tripling past 50 trillion won for the first time and operating margin hitting a record 72%, while HBM4 prices are forecast to more than double from roughly $2 per gigabit to $4-5 next year as AI demand keeps outrunning supply. Samsung and SK Hynix have stopped signing multi-year contracts entirely, betting on continued price hikes through 2027, and SK Hynix has said its HBM, DRAM, and NAND capacity is essentially sold out for 2026. Manufacturing lines are booked solid through 2027, and new fabs coming online in 2028 are expected to sell out within their first 6-12 months, meaning there's no credible near term supply relief that would justify betting against these stocks. There's also a structural reason this cycle behaves differently than past memory downturns. HBM chips consume roughly three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM per gigabyte, so every unit of capacity manufacturers shift toward AI chips permanently pulls supply away from the regular DRAM market too, creating shortages in both categories simultaneously rather than the traditional boom bust pattern memory investors are used to fearing. Long Memory and make sure to follow @MelvinInvests for more semiconductor insights and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link below for more.

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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
減税に財源は不要。歳出合理化の発想なき政治家はさっさと引退するのが適切。 #財務省解体 #高市政権 河野元外相が消費税率引き下げに反対表明(共同通信) news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/b5228…
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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
「タイトルなんか取れるわけがない。そんな簡単に取れたら、みんな取っている。」 #baystars DeNA・勝又温史、シーズン目標を「443打席」に設定 首位打者争いの可能性には無欲を強調 - サンスポ sanspo.com/article/202607… @SANSPOCOMより
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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
韓国株🇰🇷は半導体株の代理変数。 ・6月22日のピークから40%下落。 ・RSIは歴史的なボトム。 ・予想PER5倍はシクリカルでも安い。 ・予想CFは経済危機レベル。 #米国株 #日経平均 #FANG #韓国株
MacroValue@pradeeepk

Memory bottom

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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
バウアーはメキシコリーグで4試合に先発し3勝1敗は良いが、防御率 4.56ではNPBも厳しい。 #baystars "衝撃暴露!元横浜DeNAバウアーが「(ロバーツ監督は)僕の顔を見て嘘をつき、その裏で卑怯なことをした」と古巣ドジャースを猛批判…「ベッツだけは無実だ」" l.smartnews.com/m-8cxhxjd6/jKA…
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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
DRAMメーカーは残存者メリットが最も顕著。今世紀初めから新規参入はなく、3社寡占。Moatは深く大きく、シクリカルからグロースにAIにより変化。株価の大きな調整はレバレッジが要因であり、株式市場の内部要因。 #米国株 #韓国株 #FANG
Wall St Engine@wallstengine

SAMSUNG Q2 OPERATING PROFIT JUMPS 19-FOLD TO A RECORD ON AI CHIP DEMAND Samsung Electronics reported Q2 operating profit of 89.5T won, up from 4.68T won a year ago, while revenue rose 130% to 171.5T won. Samsung expects strong H2 memory demand, led by continued AI infrastructure spending and broader agentic AI adoption, to keep the market undersupplied despite softer mobile and PC demand.

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Scott
Scott@Havenlust·
From "Loving Vincent"
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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
「佐々木はグローブを替えて以降2試合で1失点のみ、12回2/3を投げて14奪三振を記録している。これは佐々木のメジャーキャリアで最高の投球」 #MLB #佐々木朗希 The Dodgers’ Roki Sasaki had been tipping his pitches. But a cartoonishly large glove might be saving his season. wsj.com/sports/basebal… @WSJより
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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
Microsoft Azureの予想を上回る高成長と、半導体株の急落は、ハイパースケーラー空売りと半導体レバレッジETF残高のピークアウトを示唆。実にヘルシーなデトックスであり、ハイパースケーラーと半導体株の同時ラリーへの布石となる。 #米国株 #FANG
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Eric
Eric@onlypapermoon·
減税に財源は不要。歳出の削減と合理化、国民負担率の低減が減税の最も大きな経済効果。 #財務省解体 #高市政権 高市首相 食料品の消費税率 1%に引き下げる方針表明の見通し | NHKニュース | 物価高騰、消費税、税制改正 news.web.nhk/newsweb/na/na-…
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