Eric
32.7K posts

Eric
@onlypapermoon
鹿島アントラーズSÓCIO /横浜ベイスターズ/美術館巡り/個人投資家/米国株/ゴルファー/メルセデス/ミュンヘンへの道/🇹🇳🇧🇭🇸🇬

Microsoft Azureの予想を上回る高成長と、半導体株の急落は、ハイパースケーラー空売りと半導体レバレッジETF残高のピークアウトを示唆。実にヘルシーなデトックスであり、ハイパースケーラーと半導体株の同時ラリーへの布石となる。 #米国株 #FANG


BANK OF JAPAN MIGHT HAVE INTERVENED IN THE CURRENCY MARKET. USD/JPY pair dropped from 163.6 to 159.5 in the last 6 hours, a 2.5% move. This type of move doesn't happen without central bank intervention. The BOJ makes its rate decision tomorrow. If this drop is real intervention, it means officials are moving before the decision to avoid a much bigger yen selloff if tomorrow's outcome disappoints markets.

高市首相の「働いて働いて」の結果、物価は上がる一方…「無能な人気者」を選んだ国民がこれから受ける仕打ち ift.tt/rU92gZx

How could you possibly be short memory when Samsung is posting numbers like this? (bookmark this). Samsung Electronics just reported Q2 operating profit of 89.5 trillion won, up 19 fold from 4.68 trillion won a year ago, while revenue rose 130% to 171.5 trillion won, both records, driven entirely by AI chip demand. That 19x jump isn't a one quarter fluke, it's the product of a structural supply crunch across the entire memory industry. And Samsung itself is telling investors it expects the market to stay undersupplied through the second half of the year, led by continued AI infrastructure spending and broader agentic AI adoption, even as mobile and PC demand softens. The other memory makers back up the same story. SK Hynix posted similarly explosive results earlier this year, with Q1 revenue nearly tripling past 50 trillion won for the first time and operating margin hitting a record 72%, while HBM4 prices are forecast to more than double from roughly $2 per gigabit to $4-5 next year as AI demand keeps outrunning supply. Samsung and SK Hynix have stopped signing multi-year contracts entirely, betting on continued price hikes through 2027, and SK Hynix has said its HBM, DRAM, and NAND capacity is essentially sold out for 2026. Manufacturing lines are booked solid through 2027, and new fabs coming online in 2028 are expected to sell out within their first 6-12 months, meaning there's no credible near term supply relief that would justify betting against these stocks. There's also a structural reason this cycle behaves differently than past memory downturns. HBM chips consume roughly three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM per gigabyte, so every unit of capacity manufacturers shift toward AI chips permanently pulls supply away from the regular DRAM market too, creating shortages in both categories simultaneously rather than the traditional boom bust pattern memory investors are used to fearing. Long Memory and make sure to follow @MelvinInvests for more semiconductor insights and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link below for more.

【国民会議 消費減税の課題浮き彫り】 news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6589872



Memory bottom


SAMSUNG Q2 OPERATING PROFIT JUMPS 19-FOLD TO A RECORD ON AI CHIP DEMAND Samsung Electronics reported Q2 operating profit of 89.5T won, up from 4.68T won a year ago, while revenue rose 130% to 171.5T won. Samsung expects strong H2 memory demand, led by continued AI infrastructure spending and broader agentic AI adoption, to keep the market undersupplied despite softer mobile and PC demand.


