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An overview of my previous Substacks:
One secret to lower drawdowns and outperformance is capturing upside potential through downside protection.
$spy $spx $qqq
onveston.substack.com/p/lower-risk-d…
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Onveston Global Research
11.4K posts
Onveston Global Research
@onveston
Researching hidden niche champions from Europe, Canada and U.S. that get little to no attention from analysts.
Join +3.100 investors 👉 Katılım Temmuz 2021
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Beta boomer "cut costs & buy stock"
Vs
Chad grifter "robotaxis just around the corner, don't worry about dilution and zero fcf"
$volvo $tsla
Onveston Global Research@onveston
Free alpha for the homies: Firms whose male CEOs have wider faces (relative to facial height) achieve superior financial performance. They don't teach this at Finwtit investing school. cc: @Quant_Kurtis @GfI_Himmelreich @Greenbackd @awealthofcs @CDInewsletter @XDays @irbezek
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I analyze hidden champions from Canada, Europe and the U.S. who have low debt, high ROIC and wide-faced Giga Chad CEOs.
Subscribe today to not miss out on the next analysis:
onveston.substack.com
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Free alpha for the homies:
Firms whose male CEOs have wider faces (relative to facial height) achieve superior financial performance.
They don't teach this at Finwtit investing school.
cc: @Quant_Kurtis @GfI_Himmelreich @Greenbackd @awealthofcs @CDInewsletter @XDays @irbezek
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It would be a social experiment if you post 2 paintings (one of them AI) and then ask the public.
Like the Kahneman experiment where he describes an elephant and concludes that people are dumb thinking they're meeting an elephant because statistically they're rarer than lions🤦♂️
Jediwolf@Jediwolf
What happens when you post a real Monet and say it’s AI? The coolest art social experiment I’ve seen in a while. Thank you @SHL0MS
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Never ask a man his salary, a woman her age, or a "self-made" billionaire why their parents names are blue on Wikipedia...
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A moat you cannot stress-test against history is a hypothesis, not a moat.
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@CDInewsletter People just want to be entertained with fear porn.
And Burry delivers.
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Friends don’t let friends take Michael Burry bubble threats seriously.
Guy got one macro call right 20 years ago, has gone 0/65 since, and some people still think he’s worth listening to.
Even if he gets this one right -- he might! -- he's still the boy who cried bubble.
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Spotting market euphoria before a downturn can save your portfolio.
Learn the key signs of an overheating market.
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My favorite low IQ posts on Fintwit.
Take a timeframe no human survives to "prove" that stocks outperform other asset classes.
And ignore inflation. 🥂
Anthony Pompliano 🌪@APompliano
Equity investors have outperformed for 200 years. (h/t @themoviedadsc)
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Onveston Global Research retweetledi
A great example why Fintwit doesn't have community notes.
The paper misses the point it tries to explain.
Trend following for example works despite of inflation or other external factors.
It doesn't solve the problem that businesses face when costs are rising.
Matias Scalbi@MatiasScalbi
🔥 "The Best Strategies for Inflationary Times" Campbell Harvey (Duke) y el equipo de Man Group analizan 95 años de data para responder UNA pregunta: qué REALMENTE protege tu plata cuando la inflación se descontrola 8 episodios inflacionarios desde 1926 en USA, UK y Japón. La conclusión incomoda a casi todos los que se dicen "inversores defensivos" Lo que comenta el paper: 1) Las acciones perdieron -7% real anual y los bonos largos -8% real anual durante los regímenes inflacionarios. El "stocks for the long run" se cae cuando la inflación pega 2) El oro: 13% real anual durante inflación, pero apenas -1% real fuera de ella. Sirve como hedge específico, no como store of value perpetuo. Mucho menos mágico de lo que el marketing te vende 3) Commodities: 14% real anual con hit rate del 100%. Funcionaron en los 8 episodios sin excepción. Las energies arrasaron con 41% real anual 4) El campeón absoluto es TREND FOLLOWING all-asset: 25% real anual durante inflación, hit rate del 100%. Ganó plata real en CADA UNO de los 8 episodios desde 1926. La estrategia más confiable que existe para proteger poder adquisitivo 5) Crypto no tiene historia suficiente para evaluarlo. Los autores discuten el caso teórico pero la data no alcanza para conclusiones robustas Lo que creías que era hedge (acciones, oro pasivo, bonos) no funcionó. Lo que realmente protegió fueron las estrategias activas, sobre todo trend following sistemático Link al paper en el primer comentario
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@GestaltU The paper is the opposite of a banger.
It misses the point it tries to explain.
Trend following for example works despite of inflation or other external factors.
It doesn't solve the problem that businesses face when costs are rising.
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I saw Burry's fund results and they were bad. But they were not very volatile.
Burry publicly says he is shorting AI stocks using options. When the trade moves against him he says he is adding even more to his short.
Based on his fund's results, he might be risking some tiny token bet. Say 1% or less on the combined trade. But I get the feeling that a lot of people following him don't understand that his public posture and strong wording doesn't match any real conviction. And they bet a lot bigger than him following him into his (terrible) trades, and blow up.
It's pretty crappy that a movie made a charlatan like this famous. More people should realize the guy is an incompetent investor, but never will.
My solution to this problem: The government should force all registered firms to report their results publicly and forever. A permanent record. That kind of tansparency would be extremely telling. For another example, nobody would have "learned' from a guy like Chanos, either, if they knew how bad he was.
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I don’t know what Bateman’s problem was, his card looks much sleeker than Paul Allan’s.
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Onveston Global Research retweetledi
If you’re a contrarian, this stock is for you:
✅ ROIC of 80%
✅ Zero debt
✅ No competition (geographic moat)
✅ Founder-led
✅ Printing cash for shareholders year after year
✅ FCF Yield of 6%
Full analysis:
open.substack.com/pub/onveston/p…
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What a month.
Of the 21 trading days in April, the S&P 500 closed positive 15 times (71.4%) and never fell by more than 0.5% in a single day, ultimately advancing 10.4% for its best month since November 2020.
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