Ottavi

@JerryCap I thought going to the moon would be the catalyst…

@ottavi_ Can he plz do some grifting for us shareholders and get a government context on Mars or some shit ffs

Imagine time traveling and showing this video to $FOUR shareholders 2 years ago

$V is a long until people stop posting these types of charts

Not sure how this could be “almost zero” if on/off-ramp costs are included.

"Nobody's talking about it"...

Consolidation continues in residential brokerage $RMAX $REAX $COMP $EXPI $REAX -19% this morning on the news it's buying $RMAX

Surprised Musk hasn’t been more aggressive acquiring a business that would get them required infrastructure. Also another neobank seemingly built off unregulated debit interchange economics. One would hope Musk would try to do something more disruptive — have to imagine that’s in the desired roadmap. “Early users testing the service have touted competitive perks, including 3% cash back on eligible purchases and a 6% interest rate on cash savings — the latter of which is roughly 15 times the national average. Musk’s new product is also expected to offer free peer-to-peer transfers, a metal Visa debit card personalized with a user’s X handle, and an AI concierge built by Musk’s xAI startup that tracks spending and sorts through past transactions, according to reports from users with early access.”

I think it’s as simple as $ABNB was overvalued at IPO and since then growth has slowed meaningfully (maturing core, newer bets have not moved the needle) resulting in multiple compression which is to be expected as a business matures and growth slows. Chesky & co have built a great core business that’s incredibly profitable but unless newer bets can accelerate growth sustainably, hard to expect the multiple to change much.

Here's my best argument: 1) Airbnb was overvalued by the public market when it went public; this graph reflects real business progress + a more reasonable valuation 2) Airbnb has had to fight against tremendous headwinds in the regulatory environment 3) Airbnb has taken great shots on goals for new business lines but none have quite landed yet - a ton of possibility in adjacent services about to explode.

@ContrarianCurse @buccocapital It’s never been easier to get to a consensus viewpoint.

@buccocapital Absolutely, but it is happening whether we like it or not

The speed in which things move through Fintwit and the market now is insane. Moves are priced in 1/10th the time of pre LLM

Revolut reportedly targeting a $200B IPO by 2028. Current valuation of $75B already assumes valuation multiple more than double public comps. It seems like co is targeting global expansion to drive the growth to justify the IPO valuation including recently filing for US banking charter. US neobanking an increasingly crowded field with convergence in business models.

a16z updated report — this time using more relevant adjusted figures :) Stablecoin volume growing fast but still remains a small drop in the bucket vis-a-vis core $V $MA volume. Interesting that both could drive stablecoin volume going forward as they maintain their role in the four-party model with stablecoins as the rail.

I know this doesn't fit the narrative as cleanly but why does a16z cite an adjusted figure that seemingly is mostly derived from trading volume (the $9T adjusted figure) vs. the ~$64B retail payments figure V reports in their onchain dashboard? This would seemingly be more like-for-like with these comps.

IMO market structure dynamics making the smiling curve dynamic more pronounced for public markets funds. Increasingly hard to be something that’s not very scaled or niche. Challenge I think for SMs who want to do what you say (use duration as an advantage and tolerate vol) is I feel like increasingly institutional LPs have less tolerance for withstanding vol to see that strategy play out (maybe it ends up being cyclical). Obviously, exceptions exist. But to your point, challenge is if you try to adapt and be something you’re not / get stuck in the middle, your chances of success are even lower. So what’s the answer? Just have permanent capital I guess!

If you are a LO or non pod L/S fund, the answer to the current market environment is not trying to beat the pods at their own game or anything else. You can't try to chase "what's working" or what you think may work. The only answer - IMO - is to stick to what you are good at, what is sound, and where you have advantages that pods / quants don't (duration and vol tolerance basically).

@bobspaysubstack @icemancapital Don’t worry that our TSR is -32% over past 3 years because our peers have sucked more 😂

@icemancapital Incredibly out of touch if $GPN is patting themselves on the back because they sucked slightly less than $FISV and $PYPL over the last 3 years. Where is this slide from? I haven’t seen it.

$GPN transformation beginning to work?!

For now…ultimately, if Adyen can hit numbers and execute then a ~20% revenue growth CAGR will be supportive to the multiple given few payments companies are putting up that sustained growth. Issue has been market’s assumed growth will continue to decel into teens somewhere IMO (and communication issues).

@ottavi_ Yes, of course. That said, I think both deals make sense strategically. Now it's about execution. And oh yeah, Adyen is now a legacy payments shitco.

Is Adyen now a legacy player like Stripe, $GPN and $FI? What happened to 'one tech stack', no M&A

@kab604 I think this is different than GB given scale of deal (esp vs respective market caps) and product acquisition vs category/geo expansion but deserves skepticism. This will be under a microscope given Adyen’s past stance on M&A.

Deal gives off some serious Global Blue-vibes $four

$ADYEN co-CEO posted his email to employees on LinkedIn earlier:

$ADYEN also pre-released Q1 numbers - "net revenue growth of 20% on a constant currency basis compared to last year, reaching €620.8 million in the period." BBG consensus was €622.5M.

There's a first time for everything... "Adyen to acquire Talon.One to enable real-time decisioning across commerce channels" €750M acquisition for €60 million in ARR by YE26. $ADYEN adyen.com/press-and-medi…

@bobspaysubstack Also I’m sure investors are going to be frustrated they spent that much on a questionable first acquisition when they’ve been telling the market capital returns are off the table

My guestimate is $ADYEN will be down tomorrow on pre-announced Q1 FXN net revenue growth of 20%, which is at low-end of an already 'disappointing' 20-22% guide introduced last quarter. Also doing a deal that looks to bolster their agentic commerce capabilities. €750MM for a business expected to generate 'approximately' €60MM in ARR by the 'end of this year' growing 30-40%. Maybe I'm a pessimist (being an investor in payments and fintech has made me that way), but I'm not sure any of this will be reassuring for a market that's already questioning this company's ability to set guidance and deliver a shareholder-friendly capital allocation/return policy. I added to $ADYEN this morning, may look poorly timed by tomorrow.