Ragnar Danneskjold 🇨🇷🇺🇸
6.5K posts
Ragnar Danneskjold 🇨🇷🇺🇸
@patrickbrown333
Aspiring Value Investor, Libertarian, Econ/Fin Geek. In investing, the moment you start feeling like a genius, you start acting like a moron. Stay humble.
Costa Rica Katılım Temmuz 2011
972 Takip Edilen368 Takipçiler
@patrickbrown333 Management was terrible. Now we have Tsai and Wu running the thing into the future.
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$BABA just told you they'll 4x cloud revenue in 5 years.
That's a 33% CAGR. They grew cloud 36% last quarter.
And China's enterprise cloud penetration is still in the early innings.
This feels sandbagged.
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Denmark was ready to blow up Greenland runways if the USA invaded.
The Danish military sent explosives and blood supplies to Greenland in January as part of contingency planning for a US attack, as tensions with Trump escalated. 🇩🇰🇬🇱🇺🇸
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$BABA will likely make $25B revenue in Cloud + AI this fiscal year.
If they see $100B in 5 years, implies 32% CAGR through FY2030.
Even at half AWS P/S valuation, implies $500B potential valuation for Alibaba AI+Cloud.
Wall St Engine@wallstengine
$BABA AIMS FOR $100 BLN IN CLOUD, AI REVENUE IN FIVE YEARS
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@AJButton2 @AbrahamGYSimon Why would they? When has $BABA management ever been credible?
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@AbrahamGYSimon I'm surprised the markets aren't having more of a reaction to the $100 billion 2031 AI goal
I guess they don't buy it...
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🚨 ALIBABA CLOUD GUIDANCE JUST RELEASED ON EARNINGS CALL
They are aiming for $100 billion in *ANNUAL* cloud/AI revenue five years from now.
$BABA
Wall St Engine@wallstengine
$BABA AIMS FOR $100 BLN IN CLOUD, AI REVENUE IN FIVE YEARS
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@adamtaggart @Ayoubka_ @Polymarket They have always been free to choose where to put their capital. What case would they have to sue?
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@patrickbrown333 @Ayoubka_ @Polymarket It's no secret, but they can certainly take their capital elsewhere and/or sue Zuck for breach of fiduciary duty
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JUST IN: Meta announces they'll be shutting down the Metaverse, after pouring $80,000,000,000.00 into the project.
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@Ayoubka_ @Polymarket He only owns 14% of META
The remaining 86% of that $80 billion lost is other people's money
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@BTCBruce1 People are spec-building AI warehouses and pitching them on X??? Very bearish or it’s a scam.
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@SenFettermanPA That’s like requiring drug tests for work but allowing people to send their urine by mail.
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83% of Americans agree on voter ID.
71% of Democrats agree on voter ID.
Keep it basic: PHOTO ID to vote.
Stop turning this into a Christmas list and attacking vote-by-mail.
If GOP wants real reform over a show vote––put out a clean, standalone bill and I’m AYE.
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@SenSanders How many Somali day care centers is that?
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The war in Iran has already cost $22.8 billion.
For $22.8 billion, we could:
• Provide Medicaid to 6.8 million kids
• Build 2.6 million public housing units
• Fund Head Start for 1.3 million
• Hire 240,000 teachers
• Cancel $20,000 in student debt for 1 million borrowers
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@patrickbrown333 @hkuppy @calvinfroedge Kharg island? How will kharg island make iran stop shooting ships from mountains? Haha the two isnt even close
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They had all weekend to think something up. The best they could come up with is sailing into a turkey shoot…
Think it’s time to accept the obvious. Hormuz opens when the Iranians want it to open. Only way Trump can force the issue, is troops on the ground, but we need a force projection that is Gulf War 1 or larger in scope to do this. That takes 6 months to assemble and involves calling up reserves. Does Trump dare to do this?? Can the world make it 6 months with Hormuz shut??
Feel damn good to be running long vol and lower gross. Gonna be a great opportunity to gross-up as this becomes apparent to everyone else…
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
*US PLANS TO ANNOUNCE COALITION TO ESCORT SHIPS THRU HORMUZ: WSJ *US PLANS HORMUZ COALITION ANNOUNCEMENT AS SOON AS THIS WEEK:WSJ *US STILL DISCUSSING WHEN OPERATIONS WOULD BEGIN: WSJ
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Ragnar Danneskjold 🇨🇷🇺🇸 retweetledi
It’s a question of who gets squeezed to their breaking point first. It’s not riskless or costless, but the math is stacked in US’s favor. The RoW has emergency reserves too. Of course it would be a crisis. But who is going to break first? My money would be on the Iranian regime, which has been decapitated, made defenseless but not completely offensless, and already running on fumes, breaking first. The minimum demands would be: open SoH and hand over the uranium.
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@patrickbrown333 @RyanTho17521666 @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge If oil gets to $150+ because ships aren't traversing the SoH you will see incredibly high inflation globally. Not sure if you know but the US imports most things. Holding the Kharg doesn't instill safety to ships trying to pass. Goes back to the insurance issue.
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@illbzach @RyanTho17521666 @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge Yes, I believe that if Kharg accounts for 90% of Irans oil revenue and 30-50% of total government revenue (sources vary) but Kharg only represents 1.5% of global oil volume, and the US is self sufficient, then there is tremendous leverage to be potentially gained here.
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@patrickbrown333 @RyanTho17521666 @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge This is basically like taking the gun from Iran, holding it to our head and threatening to pull the trigger.
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Yes but Kharg gives them huge leverage over the regime. They kinda do have to focus on Kharg or you’re talking about blowing up a VLCC in the gulf. They can focus on Kharg. Threaten to blow up loading infrastructure without causing an environmental disaster. Or
Just take it over.
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@patrickbrown333 @illbzach @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge They can do that without going anywhere close to Kharg. The reason they're not is to avoid reducing world oil supply even more because that would be shooting ourselves in the foot.
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@RyanTho17521666 @illbzach @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge I believe there are these things called submarines. All they have to do is threaten to not allow Iranian oil to flow. This morning they announced they would allow it to flow, which is an obvious way of saying “we can make it stop flowing” anytime we want.
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@patrickbrown333 @illbzach @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge This is fan fic. Our naval assets are fighting this war from hundreds of miles out in the AS because they could get massacred in the PG. They're not going to be sitting ducks 20 miles off the coast of Iran.
Why do you suppose they're not currently willing to escort tankers?
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I should have rephrased that. Iranian oil from Kharg is getting through but they are blocking anyone else they want. That’s the whole problem. But if US takes away their piggy bank, it gains all the leverage. Normally, 20m barrels/d go thru. Saudi has an pipeline that can divert 7m. That still leaves 13m. Kharg exports about 1.5. It’s still flowing but there are 11.5 missing from global markets. Use of reserves is what’s keeping oil from going crazy, but those will run out eventually.
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@patrickbrown333 @RyanTho17521666 @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge You are severely misinformed on that. There have been I think 3 maybe 4 tankers that have gone through the straight since this started. Look up the insurance issue for tankers going in and out of the straight. We are the closest we've ever been to a global energy crisis
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Of course oil is getting through. Everyone is still getting their oil - basically China. 90% of their oil leaves from Kharg. That’s why prices haven’t moved much. If no oil was going through, oil would be at $250. As for the other question, no, I have no idea. But this would end it IMO.
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@patrickbrown333 @RyanTho17521666 @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge There are no exports currently and haven't been since this started. I don't believe anyone outside of the administration even knows what this war is about. Can you honestly tell me what it is about and what confidence you have in that answer?
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@illbzach @RyanTho17521666 @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge OK, then use naval assets to surround the island and prohibit its use. Accomplishes the same thing.
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@patrickbrown333 @RyanTho17521666 @amenteter @hkuppy @calvinfroedge My other points are still valid and I find it difficult to believe that just 200 US troops would be able to take one of Iran's most valuable assets. 5000 might not even be enough. You and I don't have the intelligence to know. Seems like a massive risk with massive downside
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