Patrick Flynn

Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!

Genuine question: Why can we not, at the very least, produce half of ballot papers in reverse alphabetical order? Seems like changing one’s surname to Aarons by deed poll might actually be a better use of election resources than actually campaigning!

Data question: Has anyone produced estimates for how the wards voting tonight voted in 2024 overall?

So what comes next? We outline three scenarios in the white paper, or the “ABCs”: Augmentation, Bifurcation, or Crash. The data we have collected indicates the middle option is the most likely. Find out more by reading the full white paper below.

Today we've launched a new Workforce AI Tracker in partnership with the @FT, including our first white paper for the project. 🧵 Subsequent reports will focus on particular topics in depth, but here’s a quick ‘state of play’ of where we’re at...

@focaldataHQ Full results and demographic breakdowns: focaldata.com/blog/democrats…

Excited to reveal the first @focaldataHQ House of Representatives MRP poll of 2026. 🔵 Democrats: 228 seats (+13) 🔴 Republicans: 207 seats (-13) Fieldwork conducted up to Monday this week, and the model accounts for last night's redistricting referendum in Virginia.

At @AnthropyUK this week with the @focaldataHQ team. If you're around and want to grab a coffee, do reach out.

Really cool resource

@focaldataHQ focaldata.com/blog/democrats…

Eight months out, the picture is getting clearer. Next Wednesday @focaldataHQ will reveal our first seat-by-seat House projections using MRP modelling across every congressional district.

We've just released our March US midterms poll. Democrats now lead in the generic congressional ballot by 6 points with registered voters, their biggest lead of the year so far.