Paul Nemitz

On Sunday, April 12, Hungary will hold elections that are important for the future of the European Union. This is a point where two models of Europe collide: a liberal-democratic, institutional one - and an alternative model built on personalized power and anti-European narratives. Over more than a decade in power, Viktor Orbán has transformed Hungary into a system of competitive authoritarianism: elections formally remain, but real competition is constrained by control over the media, politicized institutions, and the administrative advantages of those in power. For the first time in 16 years, Hungarians have a chance to defend democracy. According to a number of 2026 polls, the opposition (Péter Magyar and the TISZA party) is consistently ahead of Fidesz (approximately 50-58% versus 35-40%). For Orbán’s system, this is a real challenge - which is why he is trying to hold on to power by tightening control. Orbán’s campaign is built as a frontal confrontation with the European Union. He is not merely criticizing Brussels - he is systematically working to undermine its legitimacy: blocking decisions, using veto threats, and promoting narratives about an "EU dictatorship" and the "defense of national sovereignty." Against this backdrop, a broader configuration is becoming increasingly visible - an informal anti-European coalition. Russia supports Orbán through propaganda, consultations, and political backing. Under Orbán, Hungary is turning into a Trojan horse within the EU. Orbán is also receiving significant backing from parts of the current U.S. political establishment. The recent visit of JD Vance to Budapest and his public rhetoric served as a signal: Orbán is being presented not as a deviation, but as a model. The key message is that Europe has allegedly lost its sovereignty, and that "illiberal democracies" are an alternative rather than a problem. This is how a political coalition is taking shape: Moscow undermines the EU from the outside, Budapest - from within, and parts of the U.S. political elite normalize this model at the level of ideas. The elections in Hungary are a point at which this authoritarian, anti-European coalition will either consolidate or collapse. If Orbán remains in power, the EU will face a stable internal opponent capable of blocking key decisions and undermining the Union from within. If he loses, a window opens for restoring and strengthening European institutions.