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Phil my Targets
9.6K posts
Phil my Targets
@pdawg74
Trading Traveling & Cryptos
Outside The Matrix Katılım Eylül 2009
1.1K Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
Doomers are telling me the worst recession in 17 years is loading.
Gold bugs are telling me price is going to $100,000 an ounce.
The real estate market says no one wants to buy a house at these prices.
The bond market says the economy is shit.
The AI bubble looks like it will never pop.
SpaceX, Open AI and Anthropic are all going public at the top of the market.
The SPX is at 7,500. The Nasdaq is at all time highs. The Dow Jones is over 50,000.
Despite all this…
Bitcoin is still down nearly -40% from the all time highs. Nothing makes sense anymore.
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@dampedspring leverage unwind. BTC open interest far too high and predatory whales which have been in this game for years, just rinsing and repeating.
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This is seriously genuinely NOT a shit post.
With saylor buying gobs of BTC, financed by MSTR and STRC buying which appears additive and not swaps, and ETF flow fine, and Clarity Act wins, who the heck is selling all the coins at 35% below ATH's? Its such a mystery to me.
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@newjez @traderhc @SherdilTX this account has been agentic for a while, pretty obvious at this point with that hallucinogenic reply.
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@traderhc @SherdilTX It was your X handle, and it appeared on my alerts, and I don't follow clones. Either you have been hacked or someone had access to your phone. It came from your account. I would investigate further, because that was spooky.
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@macrocephalopod @TheStalwart Amen, it's so obvious with the short sentence bursts.
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@TheStalwart You have to block anyone who is posting AI generated text as if it’s their own. It’s the only way. It’s not to punish them. It’s mental hygiene. Don’t pollute your brain with that shit.
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I’m genuinely surprised that so many people (non spambots) are producing AI-generated text. Who’s the market for it? Who’s reading it?
Freda Duan@FredaDuan
There's a growing narrative that AI token consumption is too expensive and too wasteful. Engineers are "tokenmaxxing." CFOs are nervous. Budgets are blown. The concern isn't wrong. There is waste. But it misses the structural picture. The Mental Model AI spend = users × tasks/user × tokens/task × $/token The first half — users and tasks per user — is ripping. Claude Code's adoption curve is steeper than Cursor's was at the same stage. Cowork is ramping faster than Claude Code. We're barely scratching the surface. The tension lives in the second half: tokens/task and $/token. That's where optimization happens, and where the real debate gets heated. Two Levers 1. Same work, cheaper tokens. Model routing is the highest-impact play. A routing layer that sends trivial tasks to Haiku and reserves Opus for complex reasoning can cut 60-80% of spend on eligible tasks. OSS models for commodity tasks — self-hosting Llama or Qwen for boilerplate — means zero per-token cost, swapped for GPU capex. Or the simplest strategy: wait. Token prices fall roughly 10x every 18 months. 2. Same work, fewer tokens. Prompt caching is low-hanging fruit — cache repeated system prompts, reads cost 10% of input price. Context window management — summarize history instead of re-sending full conversations. Thinking budget tuning — cap thinking tokens for simple completions, uncap for hard problems. And agent loop pruning, possibly the biggest single source of waste: most agents waste 50-70% of their tokens on redundant tool calls, retries, and pointless sub-agent spawns. Who Optimizes What Every layer of the stack targets different metrics. Infra ( $NVIDIA, $Cerebras, $Groq) optimizes tokens/watt and tokens/dollar. Model providers ( $Anthropic, $OpenAI, $Google) optimize quality/token and thinking efficiency. App layer (Cursor, Claude Code, Codex) optimizes cost/task and cache hit rates. Enterprise buyers optimize cost/engineer and ROI vs. headcount. Each layer's gains pressure the layers around it. Faster hardware forces providers to compete on price. Better models reduce the tokens apps need. Application routing erodes premium pricing. Enterprise CFOs demand all of the above. Bear vs. Bull The core question: does optimization compress AI revenue faster than new demand replaces it? The bear case is real. Rationalization is the CFO's first instinct — when the budget blows, the reaction is "finally back inside the envelope," not "let's 10x usage." Model routing drops revenue per task 10-20x. OSS is closing the gap fast. Caching is pure token destruction: cache hit = zero revenue, no new demand generated. And thinking efficiency is self-cannibalization — if Anthropic improves extended thinking by 3x, billing for the same reasoning task drops by two-thirds. The bull case is equally compelling. Current usage is cost-constrained, not demand-constrained. Companies blew their budgets and had to throttle. Drop costs 5x and every killed use case comes back. Today only coding is at scale — testing, documentation, code review, security auditing are all waiting for the economics. Penetration is still single digits. Agentic workflows are a token multiplier: a human-in-the-loop conversation runs thousands of tokens, an autonomous agent on a complex task runs hundreds of thousands. New modalities — vision, audio, video — are net-new demand that dwarfs text. And Jensen Huang's framing: a $500K/year engineer should consume at least $250K/year in tokens. At $5K, you're dramatically under-leveraging AI. Where This Lands The optimizers will win every individual battle. Every caching trick, every routing layer, every pruned agent loop will work. Cost per task will drop dramatically. But the number of tasks, the number of users, and the complexity of what gets delegated to AI will grow faster than efficiency compresses spend. Token costs are going down. Token spend is going up. Both things are true, and they aren't in contradiction. Full: open.substack.com/pub/robonomics…
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Markets are training people to think crashes don’t happen anymore.
That’s how the riskiest setups take shape.
In 1929, investors thought prosperity would last for good. During the dot-com bubble, they thought technology had rewritten the old rules. Today, the story has changed, but the pattern hasn’t. Every shock feels brief. Every dip gets bought. Liquidity is expected to show up before any real damage sets in.
After a while, that repetition changes how people act.
They stop taking downside seriously. They stop hedging. They start brushing off volatility like it means nothing, instead of seeing it for what it is, a warning sign.
The market isn’t getting rid of crash risk. It’s dulling fear and teaching participants to look past it.
That’s why the next real break, whenever it comes, hits harder than most expect.
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@_sierratrading Well if you have seen enough modern era v reversals, you know that when we are in this type of gamma squeeze is up only.
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It's a special kind of adrenaline when you're the one who prints a new ATH with a market buy order.
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Last night I went ham on some king crab legs and some other weird seafood I’ve never had.
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if this were a 5min chart, where do the candlesticks tell you this is going?
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@HedgieMarkets Interesting, usually this type of profiteering is not available to joe public. All may not be what it seems here.
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No Margot Robbie in a bathtub today. Just a hedgehog who's been watching private credit for months and needs you to read this carefully.
🦔The biggest banks on Wall Street are launching a new tool next week to bet against private credit funds, the same $3 trillion corner of finance that quietly holds money from pension funds and retirement accounts. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs are working with S&P Global to launch a credit default swap index called CDX Financials, allowing investors to profit if private credit fund managers including Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone run into trouble.
Credit default swaps are insurance contracts that pay out when borrowers default. Banks want protection against their own exposure. Hedge funds want to profit from a downturn. This comes as Blue Owl reported 41% redemption requests last quarter and Carlyle's fund was hit with a 15.7% redemption request this week, more than three times its normal limit.
My Take
I want to explain why this matters for regular people because the language around it is designed to be confusing.
Private credit is a market where investment firms lend directly to companies outside the traditional banking system. Millions of Americans have indirect exposure through pension funds and 401k plans without knowing it. When those loans go bad and investors try to get their money out simultaneously, funds gate withdrawals, meaning you simply cannot access your money when you need it.
What the banks are doing now is building the infrastructure to profit when that happens. Credit default swap indexes were central to the 2008 financial crisis, and that doesn't mean we're heading there again. But when the largest banks on Wall Street simultaneously decide they need protection against private credit losses, and hedge funds are lining up to bet on a collapse, people with retirement savings in these funds deserve to understand what the people on the other side of that trade are seeing.
Hedgie🤗
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@pdawg74 That French toast factory looks damn good.
And I’m on a mission to figure out if A5 is worth the hype.
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Just got to Japan but I see JPY/USD is still not over 160 as I hoped it would be before arriving 😆
Also I’m taking some Japan recs if y’all got any…
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That 6800-6850 range held nicely despite the headlines! $es_f
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@_sierratrading Also, check out French Toast Factory, 7-eleven cafe lattes, and any hole in the wall ramen place and get a wagyu steak, because everything tastes better there for 1/2 the price.
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