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@willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant Production is production. ERA is production. None of the advanced metrics reflect what’s actually happening. The only ballpark with a league wide significant difference in ERA is Coors. If anything PNC should be worse for Paul because of the short right field.

@pelscoverage @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant You gotta stop using era as your end all be all. It’s literally such an outdated stat, and has so much to do with fielding, luck, ballpark, etc. obv Sanchez’s best season was last year, but don’t be foolish

This might be a generational NL Cy Young race

@willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant In 2024 his ERA was 3.3. If Paul had a season like that they’d say he fell off. Thats the difference here. Sanchez has one full season as an elite pitcher. Let’s see if he can replicate last year again.

@pelscoverage @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant Also there is literally not a large gap even if you look at regular stats. Sanchez literally had amazing era, so%, volume, etc. he’s just not that big a name and he doesn’t throw that hard, so you seem to have made up this gap in your head. He’s been an elite pitcher for 3 ssns

@willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant And yet, for years, Paul has managed to outperform these advanced stats. Maybe, just maybe, they aren’t perfect. The amount of starts Paul has had and he consistently outperforms these metrics. 30 is the number to be statistically significant, and he’s started like 65 games.

@pelscoverage @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant I’m sorry your brain can’t handle the “mental gymnastics” of looking at a number on a screen. These stats were created to get a better sense of how good pitchers are

@willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant There is a large gap, sometimes you just need to look at production instead of hypothetical production. It’s mental gymnastics.

@pelscoverage @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant His babip his first two years was 284 was 273. He’s getting luckier this year. His xera his first two years was also over 50 points higher in both seasons over his era. Stop waffling, he’s a great pitcher but certainly not a large, if any at all, gap between him and Sanchez

@willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant Skenes has been doing this for 3 years. It’s sustainable at this point. The WHIP might not be but his ERA definitely is.

@pelscoverage @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant Well that’s an exact area where we can use fip to evaluate. Skenes has a babip of under 200 (completely unsustainable regardless of how much he prevents hard contact) while Sanchez has one of 360. Sure reducing hard contact is better at helping babip but not 160 points worth

@willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant He simply allows more runners on base, twice as many to be exact. Paul has proven 3 years in a row his production isn’t a fluke. Without the Oneil misjudged fly balls he’d have an ERA of like 1. It’s ridiculous

@pelscoverage @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant His gb% is literally taking into account contact. Sanchez is not particularly as good as skenes at preventing hard contact, but with today’s mlb I’d rather have a pitcher that keeps the ball on the ground more than in the air. Especially if they strike out batters at similar rate

@willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant None of the real stats agree with your sentiment, especially WHIP. You’re entitled to your opinion but if the only thing backing it up is an advanced stat that ignores contact and exit velo it’s not a good argument imo

@pelscoverage @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant That’s not really true at all, fip really just characterized run prevention while taking fielding out of the equation. Sanchez wasn’t a particularly great SO pitcher, but was elite at and maximizing ground balls (more so than skenes). Sanchez is better than skenes this season def

@hilawbiz @willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant Fairs, I just think Paul’s comp was kinda weak last year. I have a hard time believing Sanchez will recreate last year’s production again. If he does it again for a full season then I’ll reevaluate, but he’s only ever shown to be a top tier pitcher for one full season. That’s all

@pelscoverage @willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant Sure. I followed you until the end there. Wasn’t he the runner up last year?

@hilawbiz @willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant It’s moreso the fact that fip only cares about strikeouts, walks, and homers. I’m not here to call sanchez bad hes not, he just aint cy young caliber

@pelscoverage @willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant I legitimately don’t know much about all these rando stats but wouldn’t your concern there be answered by Sanchez’s high groundball rate? If one of your knocks is keeping balls out of the air.

@josephbartacus @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant His opposing batting average is .260. His WHIP is double Paul’s at 1.28. He’s good. His ERA by the end of the year will be high 2s, mid 2s at best. He’s good, all star caliber, but low 2s is unsustainable at his current WHIP and opponent average.

@pelscoverage @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant Paul Skenes may be a generational pitcher, but calling Cris Sanchez just a “good” pitcher is insulting and wrong.

@willfosho07 @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant One more thing, the difference in opponent average is .260 for Sanchez and .145 for Skenes. The WHIP is 1.28 for Sanchez and .64 for Skenes, it’s really not that comparable. Sanchez is great but he’s not Paul.

@pelscoverage @NAT181978 @Sox_Savant Sanchez had a better xfip and a comparable xera last year. He also has a significantly better xfip this year

@josephbartacus @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant Whatever I spelled his name wrong, it doesn’t change my point that Paul is a generational pitcher and Sanchez is just a good pitcher.

@pelscoverage @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant Very stupid and you spelled his name wrong, great work

@NAT181978 @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant xERA says he’s actually been a lucky pitcher, says his ERA should be 2.8 instead of what it is now. Paul’s is 1.8 for reference

@pelscoverage @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant Cris Sanchez is one of the most unlucky pitchers in baseball so I don’t really care

@NAT181978 @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant Past years do matter. No pitcher has ever been as good as Paul in their first 3 seasons and it’s not even close. This wouldn’t even be a debate if Oneil Cruz wore sunglasses on opening day. Skenes would have an ERA of like 1.1

@pelscoverage @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant Sanchez gets better every year, though pretending past years matter is ridiculous

@NAT181978 @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant Historical performance. Paul is sub 2 ERA for his career and without the runs from Oneil Cruz’s opening day misjudged fly balls is in the low 1s this year. Sanchez had a career year last year with an ERA of 2.5, would be a down year for Paul. Small sample for Sanchez.

@pelscoverage @willfosho07 @Sox_Savant And how did you come to this conclusion

@willfosho07 @Sox_Savant Christopher Sanchez won’t maintain this production. Paul will and has his entire career.

@Sox_Savant Should be Sanchez but skenes is the leagues playboy, so he’ll get robbed again

Paul Skenes' season ERA dropped below 2.00 tonight He’s only allowed 6 ER in his last 8 starts 😤