Piret Pernik

It's not sustainable for the US military to be *only* made up of exquisite, expensive, hard to produce weapons and platforms. It doesn't matter how big the defense budget gets. Success in future wars will require investing in precise mass and being able to defend against it! ⬇️⬇️

Fire Point plans to deploy its FP-7 ballistic missile this year with mass production, the chief designer said. The FP-7 has 200 km range, 1,500 m/s speed and 150 kg warhead, with an FP-9 variant planned by mid-next year reaching 850 km, while Flamingo cruise missiles are already produced at three daily.

SUPER DUD: Putin’s vaunted Kinzhal missile has an exploitable vulnerability-- its SATNAV can be spoofed. Ukraine’s Electronic Warfare units are vectoring missiles away from the cities they target-- into empty fields. Forbes article included: forbes.com/sites/davidham…

🎧I joined the Foreign Affairs podcast to discuss how and what the Russian military is learning as an organization at war, even as its core flaws remain unaddressed. There is a great deal of activity underway across Russia to convert combat experience into retained knowledge.

Sudden improvements in AI methods are certainly possible but do not directly translate to economic impacts, which require innovation (in the sense of application development) and diffusion. AI as Normal Technology aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-as-normal…

The primary risk of frontier AI in cyber is its potential to drastically reduce costs for attack stages historically expensive, time-consuming, or requiring high sophistication. arxiv.org/pdf/2503.11917

This is a realistic view on how the armed forces envision the use of military AI: improving ISR, logistics, business ops, ISR, C2, etc. the UK defence AI playbook: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65bb75fa…

At the same time, CNAS wrote that AI has the potential to be as disruptive to warfare as nuclear weapons, notwithstanding that 25 countries struggle employing military AI even in business operations. Generalists used to compare cyber to WMD until that hype lost traction.

@slantchev @CousinWolf In the Eastern Flank opinion polls show Russia is the largest national security threat - has always been, the Baltic, Poland, also Finland.

Yeah, the problem is that Westen European publics even now aren’t prepared. They overwhelmingly support Ukraine and think it needs more aid, and yet they don’t think their own country should increase it. This can be easily explained by asking if they think Russia would directly threaten them — they don’t. Which why the turnaround by the politicians is even more remarkable.

"Just give Europe to Russia" The one thing about Russian diplomacy is that it is never subtle. They are remarkably open about their demands. This is why it's so infuriating to keep reading nonsense about Russia not having imperial ambitions, Russia not threatening Europe, and NATO provoking Russia. Here's the most democratic leader Russia has ever had, Yeltsin, talking to Clinton in 1999: "Yeltsin: Bill, Bill... I've not yet ceased to believe in you. I ask you one thing. Just give Europe to Russia. The U.S. is not in Europe. Europe should be the business of Europeans. Russia is half European and half Asian. Clinton: So you want Asia too? Yeltsin: Sure, sure, Bill. Eventually, we will have to agree on all of this. Clinton: I don't think the Europeans would like this very much. Yeltsin: Not all. But I am a European. I live in Moscow. Moscow is in Europe and I like it. You can take all the other states and provide security to them. I will take Europe and provide them security. Well, not I. Russia will." Nothing has changed. This was and remains the Russian demand. Who are they going to provide security of Europe from? Themselves. This is basically your neighborhood thug demanding a free hand from the sheriff to extort you at will. Putin demands the same today. The subjugation of Ukraine is merely a necessary step in the process of an attempt to dominate Europe. He needs the US out in order to do this, and the people currently at the White House do not understand that they will play straight into his hands. Clinton and Yeltsin were talking as if the Europeans were just a prop to be handled between them. Trump and Putin are doing the same now. The problem is that Europe today isn't the Europe of 1999. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has crystallized the Russian threat for many even if the publics remain complacent. The Europeans will back Ukraine to the hilt. If this causes the US to disengage, it would mean Europe will have to face Russia on its own, perhaps with the help of overseas allies who also understand what's going on. With a weakened deterrent, Moscow is more likely to push until it gets into a shooting war with Europe. Abandoning Europe increases the risk of war, and it's not going to be a war that the US would be able to watch from the sidelines. The best guarantee of peace is a firm commitment to Ukraine, stopping Putin hard there, and distributing the defense burden within NATO to handle Russia and China together because, believe me, these two are not going to be splitting up anytime soon. Source: nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/20592…

Explore this gift article from The New York Times. You can read it for free without a subscription. nytimes.com/2025/03/08/wor…

Last month, @piret_ccdcoe , a EU CyberNet and LAC4 expert, and a researcher at @ccdcoe discussed global and international perspectives on the convergence of cyber and climate risks at the conference in Aruba. 🔗 lac4.eu/discussing-cyb…

French military partners with Mistral AI as part of the French goal to take leadership in AI in Europe defense.gouv.fr/actualites/ia-…

CFR's Special Initiative on Securing Ukraine’s Future hosted a symposium on the war in Ukraine. Panelists explored three critical issues for securing Ukraine's future ⬇️ cfr.org/event/securing…

Scale will develop AI programs that commanders could ask for recommendations about how to most efficiently move resources throughout a region. The technology could combine data from intelligence sources and battlefield sensors.

Pentagon signs AI deal to help commanders plan military maneuvers washingtonpost.com/technology/202…

The patrimonial state: persuasion.community/p/sins-of-the-…

Suspending all cyber operations planning against Russia — including offensive digital actions and preparations — and limiting our efforts to look for malicious Russian cyber activity in our cyberspace is nonsensical.