Hunter Tweed

Our clients tend to trade when 1) it’s financially neutral or beneficial and 2) when operations will benefit (or be hurt by not trading) - we measure financial neutrality between keeping the older aircraft or replacing with newer starts after year 5/6 of ownership (using Life Cycle Cost) - financial neutrality considers not just OpEx and Mx but also replacement cost relative to market depreciation - dispatch reliability is a somewhat deceiving metric, we’re starting to track dispatch availability: how many days out of a year could I dispatch my plane if I wanted to based on its age. This (intuitively) decreases significantly in aging aircraft. - our benchmark survey of 140+ major corp flight departments show that the majority trade before the aircraft is 10 years old So net/net - if it’s financially neutral to trade after year 6, why own aging aircraft with less availability, greater risk of unscheduled events, and increasing risk of market obsolescence (parts availability)?

OK, I have a question, @sydor_greg: is it more economical for a corp flight dept to hold onto #bizjets long term (15+ years) or buy new every 5-7 years to minimize depreciation and heavy maintenance costs? A friend manages a flight dept at a Fortune 500 that does the former. 1/2

Gulfstream G650's are no longer a depreciating asset - at least for the time being. Not only have they defied a typical 7% annual depreciation curve, but they've INCREASED roughly 2% ($1M) in value over the past 12 months. Like we needed another reason to love this

@sydor_greg Gotta update the LinkedIn…integral to Caesar salad strategy

@pj_quant and lunches. AI can't do lunches

I had lunch with the head of Wharton’s AI club today. Like most people on here, I’ve been pretty jaded by the Claude Code hype. Our firm spends millions on research and infrastructure to find pricing edges for our clients. A 3-5% edge on a $10-20 million dollar jet is real money. It didn’t feel like AI replaces our market research team, but it does crush overhead and surface insights faster. You still need humans to produce the data and tell the story. No one’s buying a $20M jet because Claude said so… right?

@preston_holland @mumbojumbo231 More like 3. Curious to see when they plan to transition on the production line…chances are we could see some near new hit the secondary market before that.

@mumbojumbo231 @pj_quant 2 years I think yeah? Or more?

Global 7500 vs. Citation I/SP $75M vs. $1.3M

@MIAviationKing I’ll get out my dart board

@pj_quant what about non N reg aircraft parked for a few years that need to be sent for refurbishment

Team is exploring geographic impact on markets. First pass shows (pre tariff) N registered aircraft are discounted 3% for global buyers and non N reg are discounted 5% for US buyers. Will be interesting to dial this in by specific reg and markets.

If you own a jet and want to charter it out, your magic number is 300. Your flown hours + charter hours ≈ 300 Why? 300 hours/yr is really the max two pilots can comfortably fly. Go past that and you need to hire a 3rd pilot — an additional $200K–$400K fixed cost. This means more charter just to offset the 3rd pilot… which pushes you into accelerated maintenance and depreciation. It also means your jet isn’t always available when you want to fly. We have clients flying 50-1,000 hours a year on a single airframe. Finding the right sweet spot is @pj_quant’s speciality

@michaelsbanas @preston_holland Ah yes that makes sense. The wings did look longer

@pj_quant @preston_holland 750ER

I will once again not be baited by morons I will once again not be baited by morons

@Simon_Ingari “My market value has diverged from my current income due to personal effort, investment in education, and experience. I’m rebasing.”

During a job interview, if they ask: "Your Current Salary is $50,000. Why Are You Requesting $80,000?" USE THE GOLDEN RESPONSE:

@preston_holland @sydor_greg Same. But some risk analyst made it a requirement and now it’s standard procedure. We will usually negotiate it out or down, but I wonder how current evens will change that.

@pj_quant @sydor_greg Personally, I’ve always questioned the point in this. Don’t go somewhere that you can’t repossess, sure, but insurance is always a requirement and gives you the protection over loss/total loss. Make sure you have war hull coverage etc. and restrict communist companies

If you’re actively negotiating a jet lease and intend on traveling internationally, pay very close attention to the operational limitations. Specifically geographical areas the lessor won’t allow you to go…situations like today will only increase this going forward

Great week for Bombardier. Beat guidance on deliveries, book/bill at 1.4, firm order from a big 3 charter firm. Interesting that guidance is to remain on par for production. If that’s true I expect we’ll start to see some extended timelines for next available.

@realChaseMartin Would make waves for sure

@pj_quant New heavy jet launch?

Just got an invite from Embraer for a big product announcement 2/24 in BusAv…any guesses?

@sydor_greg With the current state of commercial travel (delays/cancelations) we’ve seen a significant increase in corporate studies to review expanding access deeper into the org chart

When selling to a CFO, your product falls into one of two buckets: 1. Will it generate more revenue 2. Will it create efficiencies Private aviation does both. We get calls from Partners at small real estate development firms all the way up to CEO’s at the Fortune 20 asking us to build and analyze the business case. 9.5/10 it’s very defensible.

RT @sydor_greg: Buying a Jet? Here's the Macro: 15 years or newer = Seller's market 15-20 years = Neutral 20 or older = Buyer's market P…