Planetiquely

@MrEldenThing @ZakMndebele I agree that the probability is minuscule as it scales inversely with population size. Flaw with your analysis is that the impact of the scenario also scales with population size, making the expected number of deaths caused by your vote constant.

@ZakMndebele @planetiquely The fundamental Red case is extremely simple. Because this is a prediction game, any further analysis has to take place in Blue territory (ex post), so my imagined Red retort is in that context.

Ok so clearly there is a failure to model the thinking from one side to the other, so here’s the full breakdown to explain both sides’ thinking.

@ZakMndebele @MrEldenThing Does red dominate the scenario where your child voted blue and you were the tiebreaker that made red win?

This is a good demonstration of how blues think, but doesn’t model reds correctly. The blue vote rests on thresholds because blues begin by looking for reasons to pick blue. Thresholds don’t matter to reds because reds have already calculated that red dominates every scenario. The red vote doesn’t depend on the probability of a red majority because reds aren’t trying to control the outcome, just survive it.